You want to see me shed bitter tears of utter defeat before collapsing on the floor with a dagger to my bossum crying out for the one true loss of my life. Don't you.

Mav- Joaquin's and Reese's names won't have all that much to do with how well it does. The movie will open in the teens range, if it passes 100 it will because of its legs. It will have legs because of the praise its getting, mostly from Joaquin and Reese yes, but that'll be because their performances were great. Not because of who they are. Reese's name would normally help, but that push is cancelled out, because any heads-on favorite like Reese is now would get that push anyway, so thats not there. Joaquin won't add much, as a second great performance in a film will simply draw the same crowds that would've gone for one. I'd say Joaquin and Reese will have as much to do with the films success as Foxx did for Ray. J+R are two people, but Foxx's acclaim/Oscar favorite-ism when Ray was released this time last year was stronger than either Joaquin or Reese's right now. And he was coming off a major August hit in Collateral, he was generally on fire, unlike Reese who as much as I like to debate, it is coming off a disappointment in Just Like Heaven. Considering the movie alone as well, its not like Reese would've had much effect anyway. It would've been similar to Vanity Fair.

On the other points of your argument:
-You have alot of opinionated points in there, that don't have all that much to do with the overall picture, its just what you think and guess will happen. You say Walk the Line is sure to have better reviews than Ray, and is sure to be one of the if not the BP frontrunner. Now obviously you can't back that up right now, so that was useless rambling. We can talk about the reviews and how well its going to be received, but we've already done that in the awards thread. In there the reviews thus far we analyzed, and all of them were around B+, 8/10, and mentioned: Pleasent movie, joyous to sit through, I like the music, and Reese Witherspoon is brilliant. Out of what has come so far you can't deny its been leaning towards her, not necessarily that the movie is anything special.

Just because the actors are getting praise doesn't mean your movie will get box-office success. I already mentioned that in my opinion Foxx alone at this this time last year was getting more than Joaquin and Reese combined. So thats another mark that falls flat. I'll mention another movie that came out ten years ago that had a situation almost identical to this: Dead Man Walking. Sean Penn and Susan Sarandon both gave Oscar-favorite performances in a true story/biopic without music, she won. How much did that movie gross? 39 million. Just because your acting is magnificent doesn't mean the audience will go to your movie over and over. Sure, critics will, but not the audience. The has to be great substance there.

I've been hearing arguments that Ray-Walk the Line will redo the Moulin Rouge-Chicago situation. No. Why? Because Ray isn't Moulin Rouge. In terms of impact, being respected, and more. Ray was the 5th nomination last year, similar to Seabiscuit as the 5th nomination the year before. Moulin Rouge is considered one of the greatest movies of our time, and many will argue that it should've won. Also it created a whole wave of creativity, and its audience after it was released became huge. In short Ray in 4 years will be as forgotten as Mona Lisa(I think thats what its called, a black girl won the oscar in Tina Turner biopic). Rouge was a movie phenomenom and will not be forgotten anytime soon.

I'll write later but thats a bit for now.

hehehe well not that dramatic.

That I would not put my money on...

and I can't believe that I find myself on the same side of an argument as Shack, heh.


And one thing I am pretty sure of...Walk the Line might be ONE of the Best Picture frontrunners, but it will not be THE Best Picture frontrunner.

Shack, I never said anything about Phoenix drawing anybody on his name, but Reese certainly will. She'll draw in her female fans, of which she has many of. The film, performances, and the Oscar noms, that are locks, are going to give it legs, and that's what I'm preaching. I don't believe a huge opening is on the horizon, not with Pottermania (not as strong as it was) running rampant the same opening weekend, but it's counterprogramming, and it's already got Oscar buzz from EVERYBODY that has seen it, and that will definitely generate interest.

And no, Foxx was not getting anymore raves than the two lead actors who do their own singing. I don't know where you get this info from, like Emanual Levy being the most established critic to see it. Do you just make it up as you go, or don't you research before you post?





See, you're throwing out your own opinions as if they are facts, and acting as if that's ok. Shack, I have a track record that has worked out very well with these predictions when doing just what I did for this thread, so I'm going by much more than just my opinion, trust me. I'm also going by my gut, and my gut has served me pretty well, so it's not useless rambling. Do you want me to list my credits for you? You want a definition of useless rambling, just check out your comments in "The Contenders!" thread in the Oscar forum.

Like andaroo pointed out to you, critics don't pick the best picture, like you said, and we have no idea why you were acting like those reviews were not strong, because they were, and you were also basing the entire body of critics on those first 5 reviews, but if you read up on all the articles talking about the reception that it got in Toronto, especially with notable critics like Roger Ebert, you'd realize that you're reaching, and to be blunt, you're being too stubborn to realize it.



I love when somebody tries to educate me about box office as if I don't know anything, especially when they were just thinking Corpse Bride was going to break the September record, and before that, thought Just Like Heaven would do it. You've got to have a better track record than that to be more credible. Sorry, that's just how it is.

The comparison to Dead Man Walking is not even close to being valid. Johnny Cash was a well known figure. There's a big difference.



Moulin Rouge was actually one of the poorest reviewed Best Picture nominees in recent years. I see you're projecting your opinion as if it's fact. Want proof?

2004

[table][row color=#FFFF99][col color=#FFFF99]Film[col color=#FFFF99]Fresh Reviews[col color=#FFFF99]Rotten Reviews[col color=#FFFF99]Tomatometer Score[col color=#FFFF99]COTC Score[col color=#FFFF99]Average Rating[col color=#FFFF99]COTC Rating
[row][col]Million Dollar Baby[col]184[col]18[col]91%[col]95%[col]8.4[col]8.6
[row][col]The Aviator[col]174[col]22[col]89%[col]82%[col]7.9[col]7.5
[row][col]Sideways[col]187[col]8[col]96%[col]98%[col]8.5[col]8.7
[row][col]Finding Neverland[col]151[col]29[col]84%[col]81%[col]7.6[col]7.3
[row][col]Ray[col]148[col]34[col]81%[col]85%[col]7.3[col]7.7[/table]

2003

[table][row color=#FFFF99][col color=#FFFF99]Film[col color=#FFFF99]Fresh Reviews[col color=#FFFF99]Rotten Reviews[col color=#FFFF99]Tomatometer Score[col color=#FFFF99]COTC Score[col color=#FFFF99]Average Rating[col color=#FFFF99]COTC Rating
[row][col]Return of the King[col]206[col]11[col]95%[col]97%[col]8.7[col]8.7
[row][col]Mystic River[col]157[col]26[col]86%[col]95%[col]7.8[col]8.1
[row][col]Lost in Translation[col]187[col]10[col]95%[col]97%[col]8.4[col]8.6
[row][col]Master and Commander[col]161[col]30[col]84%[col]92%[col]7.6[col]7.9
[row][col]Seabiscuit[col]149[col]40[col]84%[col]87%[col]7.2[col]7.5[/table]

2002

[table][row color=#FFFF99][col color=#FFFF99]Film[col color=#FFFF99]Fresh Reviews[col color=#FFFF99]Rotten Reviews[col color=#FFFF99]Tomatometer Score[col color=#FFFF99]COTC Score[col color=#FFFF99]Average Rating[col color=#FFFF99]COTC Rating
[row][col]Chicago[col]163[col]24[col]87%[col]94%[col]7.9[col]8.2
[row][col]Gangs of New York[col]138[col]41[col]77%[col]69%[col]7.3[col]6.7
[row][col]The Hours[col]131[col]36[col]78%[col]82%[col]7.4[col]7.3
[row][col]The Pianist[col]151[col]7[col]96%[col]94%[col]8.2[col]8.2
[row][col]The Two Towers[col]196[col]5[col]98%[col]100%[col]8.5[col]8.0[/table]

2001

[table][row color=#FFFF99][col color=#FFFF99]Film[col color=#FFFF99]Fresh Reviews[col color=#FFFF99]Rotten Reviews[col color=#FFFF99]Tomatometer Score[col color=#FFFF99]COTC Score[col color=#FFFF99]Average Rating[col color=#FFFF99]COTC Rating
[row][col]A Beautiful Mind[col]118[col]32[col]79%[col]82%[col]7.2[col]7.3
[row][col]Gosford Park[col]117[col]18[col]87%[col]97%[col]7.5[col]8.0
[row][col]In The Bedroom[col]120[col]8[col]94%[col]90%[col]7.9[col]7.6
[row][col]Moulin Rouge[col]121[col]36[col]77%[col]65%[col]6.9[col]6.1
[row][col]Fellowship of the Ring[col]166[col]13[col]93%[col]97%[col]8.1[col]8.3[/table]

2000

[table][row color=#FFFF99][col color=#FFFF99]Film[col color=#FFFF99]Fresh Reviews[col color=#FFFF99]Rotten Reviews[col color=#FFFF99]Tomatometer Score[col color=#FFFF99]COTC Score[col color=#FFFF99]Average Rating[col color=#FFFF99]COTC Rating
[row][col]Gladiator[col]99[col]28[col]78%[col]72%[col]7.0[col]6.4
[row][col]Chocolat[col]67[col]42[col]61%[col]65%[col]6.0[col]6.3
[row][col]Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon[col]130[col]5[col]96%[col]97%[col]8.4[col]8.4
[row][col]Erin Brockovich[col]108[col]20[col]84%[col]88%[col]7.3[col]7.3
[row][col]Traffic[col]117[col]9[col]93%[col]94%[col]7.9[col]7.9[/table]

You've gotta present facts if you're going to present them as such. Fellowship of the Ring was the movie most people thought should have won. Don't know where you get your info from. Isn't that what you expect from me? Now, if you only want to present opinions, like you have done, then you shouldn't call others on them, and you should also be prepared to have your prediction history dragged through the mud by the likes of me.

Bwahahahahaha! You know who the real loser in the last five years has been? Chocolat. That movie was terrible. They must have been really desperate that year to fill in the top five.

Another of my points is that The Aviator was the definition of an Oscar frontrunner, nevermind its ultimate loss. It had over ten noms, had a director and a cast MUCH bigger than Walk the Line and was a biopic as well. It also had a much better release date. It still barely passed $100 million. The problem with Walk the Line's release is that it'll partially run out of steam before the good time for it hits. That was what hurt Ray as well.

The Aviator? That was a 3 hour long movie. Titanic and the Lord of the Rings films aside, how many 3 hour films clean up at the box office?

Also, Walk the Line comes out November 18th. That's not a bad release date at all, unlike Ray, which was released in October. It's got less than a month before Golden Globe nominations are announced. That's a perfectly fine release date for an Oscar contender.

The Green Mile?

Gladiator?

The Patriot?

Dances with Wolves?

Doctor Zhivago?

The Last Samurai?

The Sound of Music?

Saving Private Ryan?

Wow, all Oscar films. I'm glad that you see the point about how that helps.

Oh yeah, I forgot how much of an Oscar movie The Patriot was. That aside, however, the point is that The Aviator was an Oscar movie as well. One that had Oscar written all over it. It had a perfect release date and it had a much bigger cast and yet it struggled to $100 million. Biopics generally don't fare exceptionally. See Ali or Kinsey. Even Ray didn't explode. There are exceptions like A Beautiful Mind or Catch me if you can, but those had more starpower going for them and better release dates. They are also the exceptions to the rule.

First you said critical reviews don't choose the Best Picture. Then you completley turned around, saying Moulin Rouge was one of the weakest BP winners, and that Fellowship was the should-win of its year. Where'd you base this second statement on? Its RT scores. Right.

You totally flattened your argument yourself.

No no no...I never said any such thing. You claimed that "Moulin Rouge was a movie phenomenom and will not be forgotten anytime soon."

and..

"Moulin Rouge is considered one of the greatest movies of our time, and many will argue that it should've won."

So I thought I'd point you to some hard data that proves quite the contrary. YOU may consider it those things, but you're projecting your opinion on the rest. Now, if you would have said that stuff concerning Fellowship, I would have agreed with you, because that's a fact, but Moulin Rouge is far from what you claim.

Well, The Patriot is the exception to the rule, but I'm sure you'd agree that the Oscars helped with the rest. Ali wasn't that great, as reviews support, and even Will Smith couldn't overcome it. That's not the case with Walk the Line. If Ali was an Oscar caliber film, it would have done much better, and I'm sure you would agree.

And nobody knows who the hell Kinsey even is. Ray and Ali were films about blacks, and I've already covered that. Why aren't you using Coal Miner's Daughter as the example? I'm sure you would agree that there isn't a closer example that can be used than that.

You see, everyone knows who Ali is. And EVEN with Will Smith it didn't get far. Which pretty much proves my point. Ali would have done better, but not better enough to cross $100 million. Even with a huge star like Smith. Blacks or not, Ray and Ali were both about very popular personalities. I would argue that MKohamed Ali is far more popular than Johnny Cash and Ray Charles.

It didn't get far because it was long and boring. And trust me, I know my Ali history very well, as I was a HUGE fan, and watched many of his fights with my dad. If it wasn't, you wouldn't be using Ali just like you aren't using Coal Miner's Daughter as an example.

I cannot use a movie as an example that I do not know much about (i.e. haven't seen it, don't know its award history, the time it was released in, its reviews, its competition, its running time and the populairty of the person it was based on).

Mav, what are the facts on Walk The Line at this point in time?

Im in 100m is garanteed

It's got a great release date to capitalize on award nominations. It emerged from the Toronto Film Festival as a force that caught everyone's attention. It was selected to be the film to open the AFI Film Festival. The two leads are getting much praise for their roles, and do their own singing. Other celebrities, such as Waylon Jennings, Jerry Lee Lewis, Carl Perkins, Roy Orbison, etc... appear in the film. (actors playing them) Everybody expects that it'll be a Best Picture nominee based on the reaction to it by those who have seen it. It's a love story.

thx Mav don't know if they are ALL facts but thx still.

hey do u think WTL will top Ray's $20 mill opening weekend?

Trust me, those are ALL facts. You can check all of that out for yourself if you wish.

It's possible that it can open as high, but Ray didn't have a new Harry Potter movie opening on the same weekend. I think Walk the Line will have better legs, obviously.

By the way, of all the movies coming up, my theater is promoting Walk the Line more than anything. They have this huge poster on one of the walls (the main wall leading to all of the theaters, actually) that is about 10 feet high and 15 feet wide. I'm not bullshitting.

if Walk the line wins best pic i think it will bust out 160m+

I'm still not sure it will pass it for sure, but y'know what? I'm in for Walk the Line > 100 million

Well, it looks like Lecter is already wrong about how many people would agree.

I guess esteemed critics, Roger Ebert and Richard Roeper, think pretty highly of the film, and I'm expecting two thumbs way up. They hosted an early screening of it yesterday in a special benefit for Katrina Victims.

http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbc ... Y/50919001

"This is a great opportunity for people to contribute funds that will go directly to the heart of this massive relief effort -- and to be among the first to see a film that doesn't open until November 18th, but is already garnering Oscar buzz," says Roeper.