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 The Boxoffice Derby Thread! 
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Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
I played this game a few times in the past but wasn't a fan at the time (this was before I came here) now I entered for this week, played it really safe, so we'll see how they pan out.

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Mr. R wrote:
Malcolm wrote:
You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself.

Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.


Fri Mar 27, 2009 7:32 pm
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King Albert!
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Corpse wrote:
Did Scott miss it as well? I notice he didn't post his predicts did he? And I know he usually submits his among the last group too.


I made the deadline, but because of the server conversion on KJ, I didn't post my predictions until the new server is up. Also, I got back from work. I will return to my overnight prediction posting from now on.

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Fri Mar 27, 2009 7:54 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Corpse wrote:
There was an actual deadline (or when the game closed), but it was never midnight pacific like almost famous (Juni) said above. For him it was 2PM, and he says it closed over an hour early on him. For me, it was I think either 5AM or 6AM, meaning 2AM or 3AM Pacific Time. Forget which of the two hours when it has closed in the past.

We weren't the only regulars to miss it either.

Omni and I missed it (ranked 1/2 for the year)
Juni78ukr missed it. (4th for the year)
Rumpel missed it. (7th for the year)
Paradigma (RUS) missed it.
Remus (RUS) missed it. (10th for the year)

Half the players in the Top 10 for 2009 missed the damn thing.

Many RUS players missed it, and so did Juni78ukr (I think he's almost famous on here) I'm assuming since he's an international player, like Omni too, and Omni and I always entered our entries way past midnight pacific time like the others have since it works best for us.


Just a suggestion, why dont you make early predicts and then refine it as late as possible. That way there is less chance of you missing it.

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Fri Mar 27, 2009 7:56 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Well, over 100 weeks and this has never happened before, so.

But, might have to do something even though early predictions change so much as the week goes along.

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Fri Mar 27, 2009 7:58 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Monsieur Marin wrote:
SolC9 wrote:
I based it off of Role Models rather than Forgetting Sarah Marshall. If it performs
like FSM, then I'll be off about 2M on that one.


Forgive me if I misunderstand here, but RM, dropped 41% in its' second weekend. By that model ILYM would be at around 10.5 not 13.3m


I don't necessarily base it on weekend to weekend drop %. Sometimes I base
it on multipliers. I took what Role Models made it's second weekend, divided
that by it's Thursday gross. I took that result and multiplied it by ILYM's
Thursday gross to get ILYM's 2nd weekend. I probably should have used
Forgetting Sarah Marshall instead though. That would have been 11.4M.


Fri Mar 27, 2009 8:05 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
he closed it at least two hours early, this is similar to when he closed at 10pm Alaska time (2am eastern) back on thanksgiving 06. the only good news for me is I have always posted my predicts before 10pm since then, to bad i had no time for tweaking, Ive got a ghastly derby coming up.

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Fri Mar 27, 2009 8:10 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
SolC9 wrote:
Monsieur Marin wrote:
SolC9 wrote:
I based it off of Role Models rather than Forgetting Sarah Marshall. If it performs
like FSM, then I'll be off about 2M on that one.


Forgive me if I misunderstand here, but RM, dropped 41% in its' second weekend. By that model ILYM would be at around 10.5 not 13.3m


I don't necessarily base it on weekend to weekend drop %. Sometimes I base
it on multipliers. I took what Role Models made it's second weekend, divided
that by it's Thursday gross. I took that result and multiplied it by ILYM's
Thursday gross to get ILYM's 2nd weekend. I probably should have used
Forgetting Sarah Marshall instead though. That would have been 11.4M.


Well FSM is a better example as far as time period, but RM is more along the same genre. Either way, I think basing on weekend drops is the most logical way, but we'll see who's method pays off here. :)

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Mr. R wrote:
Malcolm wrote:
You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself.

Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.


Fri Mar 27, 2009 11:25 pm
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Another You
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
I missed the game twice already this year. From 7th to 99th, now watch me top 200th. :hahaha:

I missed a game in 2006 and still made 18th, now my hopes of even making the Top 20 went to shit.


Sat Mar 28, 2009 1:14 am
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Cream of the Crop

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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
shawman wrote:
Just a suggestion, why dont you make early predicts and then refine it as late as possible. That way there is less chance of you missing it.

As far as I can remember, the deadline was 3 pm Moscow time - it is like that for at least 4-5 years, so why the hell should I send an early prediction? How the f%ck should I know when the damn bastards change the deadline? For many internationals the time zone difference is a very big thing + the later you send it, the more information you have to base your forecast on, and this extra time really helps many of us. For instance, I couldn't send my predictions earlier, because I've been in a hospital since 6 am, including time on the road, and I thought I have just enough time before the deadline, and when I got back home at 2:30 pm, I thought I could count on BOM. It seems that you can't count on anything these days.

Who exactly is responsible for this thing? I'm gonna make him an offer he wouldn't refuse. The sad thing is that most of us probably never gonna make it to the Top-10 this year, unless BOM cancels this week's game. This is f%cking unfair.


Sat Mar 28, 2009 2:29 am
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Deshi Basara
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Hmmm. What I'm hearing is they had just been generous forever by not closing the game at exactly midnight pacific, and suddenly out of nowhere they decided to strictly enforce that time without notice. I would agree it's a little shitty that they didn't put a disclaimer before starting that policy.

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Sat Mar 28, 2009 2:41 am
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Well, since the deadline is stated there, he technically didn't have to put a disclaimer. It's shitty and screws up the whole derby, yeah. But I always had the feeling that the actual deadline was all over the place, sometimes he kept it open til 10 am ET. So I always feared something like that would happen and got them in early.
BTW: Didn't the US already activate Dayline Savings Time? That might have screwed up the deadline for us internationals as well


Sat Mar 28, 2009 10:52 am
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Don't blame him. Just get it in before the deadline posted. It's not that fucking hard.

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Sat Mar 28, 2009 12:26 pm
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Cream of the Crop

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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Oh shit, yes, it's because of the time change. F%ck! We change time later than the US (tonight actually). That's why we were all screwed up. Not because they moved the deadline.


Sat Mar 28, 2009 12:28 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Fuck, the 1 fucking weekend of the year that I give conservative guesses, and play the derby, is the one fucking weekend where everything that exists destroys expectations. Went with 52m for MVA despite signs cause I didn't wanna be high, went with 14.5 for Hautning cause I saw no reason for a breakout, went with a 55% drop for knowing cause of the bad WOM among teenagers. Fuck.

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Mr. R wrote:
Malcolm wrote:
You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself.

Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.


Sat Mar 28, 2009 2:30 pm
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Indiana Jones IV

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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Mr. R wrote:
Oh shit, yes, it's because of the time change. F%ck! We change time later than the US (tonight actually). That's why we were all screwed up. Not because they moved the deadline.


No, it was more than an hour, at least two. In Ukraine deadline was always on 2 p.m., in Russia on 3 p.m. so we put the same deadline in our local box office games. I went to BoM on 12.20 (13.20 Moscow time) but the damn thing was already closed. I knew about time change so I thought I still have enough time...


Sat Mar 28, 2009 3:54 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Yes, the actual deadline, which was always the same for the past several years, was 2AM Pacific Time.

It wasn't because of daylights savings time because this would have happened to the international players (the ones who mostly missed) and the players who submit their entry near that deadline already, and it hasn't.

But, since half the top 10 of the year missed because of this, and the ones who did make it will be adding about 800 points on average I'd say Omni and I shouldn't drop below 50th, and if we do, it won't be too much lower. But it'll be a challenge to climb back up to the top 10.

I finished 94th in 2007 when I missed 7 games, while Omni finished 100th after missing 8 games, while out average after 43/44 games were good enough to place Omni 2nd and mine was good enough for 5th, and Juni (almost famous) missed 1 game in 2007 and almost made the top 10, so it's doable.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Mar 28, 2009 4:59 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Me and Levy finished out the week at 99 and 100.

Yearly/Monthly not updated yet.

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shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

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Tue Mar 31, 2009 7:01 pm
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Deshi Basara
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
No month win for me. RWood held on to his streak.

BOM has been a little annoying lately with the non-calculating of mo/yr.

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Wed Apr 01, 2009 11:01 am
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Corpse wrote:
I finished 94th in 2007 when I missed 7 games, while Omni finished 100th after missing 8 games, while out average after 43/44 games were good enough to place Omni 2nd and mine was good enough for 5th, and Juni (almost famous) missed 1 game in 2007 and almost made the top 10, so it's doable.

Yeah, I missed one last year and was 15th


Wed Apr 01, 2009 1:50 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
BOM still takes the predictions, which means they didn't change the actual deadline. So what was the issue last week then?


Fri Apr 03, 2009 7:11 am
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
That was quick.

90th for the week, just ahead of Omni/Corpse, but almost 10% behind the winner. Not a good week for KJ. almost famous fared best at #41


Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:14 pm
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Deshi Basara
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
The top 3 all got 100's on Sunshine. That was the decider in this game. I got all 90%+ on holdovers but openers rank was 135. :yar:

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Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:31 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
What a shitty fucking week. After getting 36th last weekend, I underestimated F&F to the tune of 23m and am consequently 156. Also all the holdovers looked good from fridays projections and than went the wrong way in estimates and even worse for actuals. shitty fucking week.

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Mr. R wrote:
Malcolm wrote:
You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself.

Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.


Mon Apr 06, 2009 6:56 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Something in the low 100's. Stupid Sunshine Cleaning!

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trixster wrote:
shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

trixster wrote:
chippy is correct

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Mon Apr 06, 2009 7:18 pm
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Post Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Munkpool wrote:
Something in the low 100's. Stupid Sunshine Cleaning!

I know, I had it at 2.8m, where'd you put it?

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Mr. R wrote:
Malcolm wrote:
You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself.

Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.


Mon Apr 06, 2009 8:29 pm
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