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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread SolC9 wrote: I think the trailer is fantastic. I have a soft spot for the CG characters Dobby, Gollum, and King Kong, and it looks to me that they are all put to shame in Avatar.  I want this to be huge, so I'm predicting it high and willing it to happen. I think beating Titanic is not realistic (though I hope I'm wrong). I think it could end up north of 400M though. Personally, I hope it takes out Shrek 2. So undeserving to be the #4 all time domestic grosser. Then, next summer, Toy Story 3 can beat Shrek as well and it won't be in the top 5 any more  Domestic 459M International 643M Worldwide 1.102 B I need your opening wknd predic, much appreciated  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Fri Oct 30, 2009 11:06 pm |
 
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6765
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread With a friday release date
OW - 90M
DOM - 475M
OS - 550M
WW - 1025M
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| Sat Oct 31, 2009 12:25 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Rev wrote: BJ wrote: post #1 now updated. 170m OW 600 DOM 1.45B WW  _________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Sat Oct 31, 2009 2:41 am |
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BennyBlanco
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:51 pm
Posts: 1102
Location: The Bronx
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread 91 million opening weekend
501 million domestic take
1.2 billion worldwide
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| Sat Oct 31, 2009 6:54 am |
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SolC9
Forum General
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm
Posts: 7195
Location: Wisconsin
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread BJ wrote: SolC9 wrote: I think the trailer is fantastic. I have a soft spot for the CG characters Dobby, Gollum, and King Kong, and it looks to me that they are all put to shame in Avatar. I want this to be huge, so I'm predicting it high and willing it to happen. I think beating Titanic is not realistic (though I hope I'm wrong). I think it could end up north of 400M though. Personally, I hope it takes out Shrek 2. So undeserving to be the #4 all time domestic grosser. Then, next summer, Toy Story 3 can beat Shrek as well and it won't be in the top 5 any more Domestic 459M International 643M Worldwide 1.102 B I need your opening wknd predic, much appreciated Doh. Sorry. OW - 94M
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| Sat Oct 31, 2009 9:08 am |
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billybobwashere
He didn't look busy?!
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 3:59 pm
Posts: 4308
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread 55 / 285
even after the fantastic trailer, i think this will be primarily driven by its WOM, which i imagine will be extremely positive. a bunch of Oscar noms and the four-months-of-IMAX thing should help it stay afloat on top of that.
_________________ Retroviral VideosA film-based project created for the purpose of helping raise awareness about HIV/AIDS, specifically in South Africa.
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| Sat Oct 31, 2009 1:51 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm
Posts: 8202
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread I don't know why but I get this sick feeling it won't do well even with excellent 1.5 month of non stop marketing worldwide.
Also, this is going to be a love it or hate it movie. Infact, I bet you most critics and online movie sites have already written their review for the movie. It will be another True Lies and The Abyss in terms of reviews.
I don't see this getting 90+%. Maybe 80+% on RT but most likely 60+%.
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| Sat Oct 31, 2009 2:12 pm |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am
Posts: 7041
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread 65ow 235total
800m????? wow. impossible, really considering your week to week drops.
highest imo is 420m. lowest 135m. something like that.
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Calls
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Lorax over Despicable Me
Men in Black 3 Under 100m
Madagascar 3 Under 100m
Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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| Sat Oct 31, 2009 2:55 pm |
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billybobwashere
He didn't look busy?!
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 3:59 pm
Posts: 4308
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread i don't see why everyone thinks it's gonna be so divisive. James Cameron is making a sci-fi movie with the emotional sweep of Titanic; even if I don't like it (and i can't imagine that's happening), i really doubt it's gonna get such a mixed response.
_________________Retroviral VideosA film-based project created for the purpose of helping raise awareness about HIV/AIDS, specifically in South Africa.
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| Sat Oct 31, 2009 9:37 pm |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm
Posts: 13054
Location: Augsburg (2,040 years young)
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread ELEVEN (!!!) WEEKS without any new 3D- or IMAX-Film (until ALICE IN WONDERLAND)
That's why I see $70m/$450m...
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| Thu Nov 05, 2009 6:33 am |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Wow, some very high predictions here... Not that i don't have confidence in Cameron, i'm more worried about the people.  Since i made a $350m club a while ago this shall be my prediction (which is a lot! in itself) but really everything over $250m (plus a fair amount from overseas) would be fine for an original IP. _________________
Last edited by Nazgul9 on Thu Nov 05, 2009 6:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:01 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22198
Location: Places
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread REMEMBER KONG needs to put in the title.
King Kong was EVERYWHERE the last 3 weeks before it opened, and barely cracked 65 million 5 day.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Thu Nov 05, 2009 1:40 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Kong would have probably done about $60m for the weekend had it opened on a friday. I'm pretty sure that's about $70m adjusted for inflation and that's without inflated 3D ticket prices.
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| Thu Nov 05, 2009 1:56 pm |
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Telemachos
Star Trek XI
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2005 3:23 pm
Posts: 324
Location: Los Angeles, CA
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Yeah, 3-D prices (and especially IMAX 3-D prices) are really gonna help cover any softness in total ticket sales for the OW.
Take KONG's opening, throw in inflation and a percentage of 3-D prices, and you'll end up in the mid-70s (depending on the percentage you give for 3-D sales).
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| Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:54 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread This should get close to $100 mil 5-day, which is more than enough to get to $400 mil.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Thu Nov 05, 2009 5:31 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 25345
Location: Classified
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread 3 day weekend - $77M, total - $420M.
The massive running length will prevent it from getting any higher OW. If the studio talks him into editing it down to 150 then I could see 80-90. Not likely to happen though.
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| Thu Nov 05, 2009 6:47 pm |
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Telemachos
Star Trek XI
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2005 3:23 pm
Posts: 324
Location: Los Angeles, CA
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread 165 minutes isn't that much longer than 150; not enough to drastically change number of showtimes a day.
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| Thu Nov 05, 2009 7:30 pm |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Telemachos wrote: 165 minutes isn't that much longer than 150; not enough to drastically change number of showtimes a day. _________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Fri Nov 06, 2009 3:39 am |
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Telemachos
Star Trek XI
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2005 3:23 pm
Posts: 324
Location: Los Angeles, CA
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread How do you know, Big G?
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| Fri Nov 06, 2009 4:36 am |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm
Posts: 13054
Location: Augsburg (2,040 years young)
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread I was just looking at historical X-Mas data and it looks like AVATAR's opening weekend (Dec. 18th) should have at least a multiplier of four until January 3rd.
This means that whatever AVATAR grosses in its first weekend should quadruple by the end of its third weekend.
So if AVATAR opens to $40m (unthinkable) it should be at $160m January 3rd
$50m (minimum) = $200m
$60m (likely) = $240m
$70m (my guess) = $280m
And after those first 17 days AVATAR still has 8 1/2 weeks of no IMAX and no 3D competion...
BTW, TITANIC (Dec. 17th) had a 17 day multiplier of 5.50!
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| Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:07 am |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Didn't I Am Legend have a terrible multiplier for so called Christmas releases?
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| Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:27 am |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm
Posts: 13054
Location: Augsburg (2,040 years young)
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Nazgul9 wrote: Didn't I Am Legend have a terrible multiplier for so called Christmas releases? IAL opened a week earlier (Dec. 14th), its multiplier for the first 17 days was a paltry 2.52 and did not include New Year's weekend... EDIT: With sold out IMAX and 3D showings during the week it is highely unlikely that AVATAR will follow in its footsteps...
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| Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:48 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 25345
Location: Classified
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread Telemachos wrote: 165 minutes isn't that much longer than 150; not enough to drastically change number of showtimes a day. Oh, last I heard it was 179. With 165 sky is the limit.
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| Fri Nov 06, 2009 8:38 am |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread mark66 wrote: IAL opened a week earlier (Dec. 14th), its multiplier for the first 17 days was a paltry 2.52 and did not include New Year's weekend...
I don't think it would have changed much had friday fallen on the 18th in 2007. Anyway, Avatar will hopefully be a much more memorable experience than IAL which should result in much better legs... _________________
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| Fri Nov 06, 2009 9:37 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread [quote="Telemachos"]How do you know, Big G?[/quo How do I know??? Hell, I don't know..  I guess I'm basing this off the fact that you can tell a story, even an elaborate story and do so in roughly 2 hours or so and get the point across as opposed to forcing the viewer to endure a movie any longer than what's necessary..._________________http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dmXF3CE04A This kills TDKR At the box office next summer.. Get used to this
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| Fri Nov 06, 2009 10:55 am |
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