$30,000,000 worth of people seen the HOUSE OF WAX trailer!

SOME of them must want to see it on MAY 6.

Very nice, it actually increased much as Troy did on Sat.

If it could drop less then 55% next week it would be impressive.

Troy dropped -48.9%, Blade II dropped -59.97%, and Daredevil dropped -55.1%. I expect a drop between 55-60%, but hopefully, it'll drop less.

just got back from one of the greatest damb films of all time :2up:

BJs Grade: A+

:rock:

I'm glad you liked it that much, BJ.

get me a better example those films are all nothing like Constantine, I realy did not like Blade 2 much so its massive drop was to be expected considering the very mixxed WOM and being the highly fronloaded sequal that it was. As for the others, the only thing they share with Constantine is an R rating so there what BJ would call horible examples.

Anyway Ill do some reseach, check out some films of constantines genre and get back when Ive drawn out a good a conclusion :wink: right now Im aiming in the 45%-50% drop range.

Troy is a bad example, probably, but everything else works. Blade II wasn't that frontloaded, because it had an even higher increase than Constantine did on Saturday, but then a higher decrease because it wasn't released on President's Day weekend. Daredevil is also a good comparison because it is not only a comic book adaptation (like Blade), but it was released on President's Day weekend. That was PG-13, though.

another point is crowd reaction Dare Devil and Blade 2 were not much if even above the average film. Constantine judging but what the average horror film gets at RT and what it got, and the average grade of a horror film at BOM compared to waht it got i would say that this film is awesome infact its being received about as well as the Matrix if you check out there average grade and the % of As each one has. As of now Im going to call a 40% drop next wknd and Im not going to change it untill thursday, if I see no reason to change the prediction I wont.

Zing they dont work well because they are nothing like constantine at any level.

I would judge this films performance by comparing it to other films that have been received very well also.

Constantine as well recieved as The Matrix? I seriously doubt that.

think of it in terms of genres Zing, constatine is extremely well received.

With the projected 1% increase on Sat, I think it will, with actuals fall about 2-4% on Saturday, for a 4-day of 33.85

The average second wknd drop for a Reeves film, including highly fronloaded sequals, since 2000 is -43%. Without the highly frontloaded sequals the average drop is -25.5%.

The average opening for a Reeves film since 2000 including highly frontlaoded sequals is around 25.4m. Without highly fontloaded sequals is around 12.6m

The averave multiplyer for a Reeves film since 2000, including oscar nominated fims, is around 3.9. Without oscar nominated films average multiplyer is around 3.4 Average without highly frontloaded sequals is around 4.1. Without oscar nominated films or highly frontloaded sequals average is around 3.0

BJs estimated second wknd drop -38% 18.426m

I think Constantine will fall around 50%.

Revised estimates:

3-Day - $29,715,000 (fell from a $10,000PTA to $9,000PTA)
4-day - $34,615,000

I expect a total around $85m.

i bet that WONT happen. Im predicting a 56% drop, but wouldnt be surprised if it went over 60%, as this weekend was slightly inflated over the 3-day aswell as the 4-day. For me the studio estimates seem quite misleading.

why do you think its going to fall hard :?: Ive given my reasons, and posted plenty of facts to back up my opinion

To back up your opinion what I need to see is a similar film(s) that was recieved by the crowds at the same level as Constantine, that similar film must be very similar when it comes to there average grade. I dont want any B films, I want it to be compared to other films with an average B+ grade.

The film(s) that you choose must be R rated just like Constantine, the film chosen can not be a summer flick it has to have been released within the september-april time frame.

If you feel like adding anything else to that than your welcomed to :wink:

Also why do you think they inflated the 4-Day-Wknd projections :?:

Here's your comparison, BJ:

Yahoo Reviews:

Resident Evil Apocalypse - B+
Constantine - B

Box Office Mojo:

Resident Evil Apocalypse - B
Constantine - B+

Resident Evil Apocalypse is R rated, just like Constantine. Resident Evil Apocalypse came out in September (like you requested). Resident Evil Apocalypse was well recieved (higher grade on Yahoo). Resident Evil Apocalypse has the same audience, basically.

Resident Evil Apocalypse's Second Weekend Drop: -62.4%

lol that was a highly frontloaded sequel Zing :wink:

How about the first one, then?

Both Resident Evil and Constantine got a B on Yahoo. Resident Evil wasn't a sequel, and both Resident Evil and Constantine are part of a similar genre. Both are well recieved. Resident Evil dropped -62.1%.

RE was not a comic book film it was a game/movie film which caused it to be very frontloaded thats why both RE films fell on both saturday and sunday after there opening day. There good examples but there not films I would use due to them being considered mindless action flicks with good grades and Constantine being an awesome heaven/hell detective story that is anything but mindless.

REs aveage grade at BOM is a C and its average % grade at IMDB is a 6.2

Constantine has an average 6.7 and an average B+ at BOM I dont check out yahoo much do to there being a lot of fake reviews.

BOM's grading isn't reliable either. Especially since most people who go to BOM are people who go here as well. Resident Evil is not a lot of people's type of movie on BOM.

We'll see though. I seriously doubt it will happen for a 40% drop. Probably around 50%.

You're only trying to find the comparisons that meet your expectations, not others. No movie is EXACTLY like Constantine. You can't base it on Keanu Reeves' track record because it doesn't depend on Keanu to bring in the WOM. The movie has to.

fare enough :wink:

THE PUNISHER - 54.6%
HELLBOY - 53.3%
UNDERWORLD - 56.7%
BLADE 2 - 60%

All of these opened on regular weekends, not holidays and had an average 2nd weekend drop of 56%. My thinking is this will drop more than that average, because of the Holiday weekend it opened on. This weekend no doubt benefited its opening 3-day aswell as its 4-day. If this was not a holiday we probably wouldn't see a 30% sunday drop, more likely a 40-50% drop.