so, thanks to Supes disappointing, we only made it to 140 million for the weekend, or about 6.3 million ahead of last year... at least we gained, but still, should have been better... here's hoping that Pirates can gross over 100 million next weekend and save the summer box office!

Streep saved this weekend no doubt!

Ok...

So we were up a ridiculas 70 million dollars over last year...
with midweek sales from Monday to Thuesday going to be considerably higher, we'll probably be up close to 100 million for the full 7 days vs. last year. That is amazing, and puts us way ahead.

Even if from this weekend on we only match last year's total for the rest of the summer (though there are still a few weekends where I think we are bound to come ahead this year) we will still be way ahead of last summer.
Considering that we were already 5% ahead of last year going into this weekend, this means very good things...

Talk of a slump should officially be over so long as Pirates doesn't drop more then 60% next weekend.

The lead just got a whole lot bigger. I don't know if Pirates, Dupree and Little Man will be able to match Charlie and Wedding Crashers, but it should be about even. The weekend after should be even more interesting, though, with Pirates' third weekend (which could be like $35-40 million, possibly), Lady in the Water, Monster House, My Super Ex-Girlfriend and Clerks II. Big weekend.

Atleast a $100m gain this week, maybe more. Next weekend should be about even. But the weekend after should demolish last year as should the Miami Vice weekend after that - as last year Island and Stealth both bombed.

I think next weekend will be bigger than last year. Pirates should be bigger than Charlie and You me and Duree and Little man combined should equal or surpass Wedding crashers.

We're obviously owning right now, and I agree that while our winter looks weaker on the surface, the quantity of movies we have should help us hold the lead. 2005 had Potter, Narnia, Kong, FWD&J, Walk the Line, and Chicken Little. 2006 will have Eragon, Happy Feet, Casino Royale, The Holiday, Santa Clause 3, Charlotte's Web, Nativity, Night At the Museum, Music and Lyrics By, and so on. That sheer amount of movies should steer this year by.

I forgot about Little Man. You are right it should be bigger.

Sept 2005 was also very strong. The weak points are definitely Sept, Nov, and Dec this year, that we need to keep up with.

October looks amazing in terms of quality and box office:

Look at this list in release order:

Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning
The Departed

The Fountain
The Grudge 2
Man of the Year
The Marine

Fast Food Nation
Marie Antoinette
Flags of Our Fathers
Killshot

Saw III
Catch-a-fire
We are Marshall
The Prestige (limited)
Babel (limited)

Thats an amazing list. Just silly they are all being released in October. There will be some casualties.

Looks like this weekend will lose out to 2005 for the first time in a long while. I'd say it can be anywhere between 5% to 10% down on last year which had CATCF and WC. The next 3 weekend should make ammends however!

yeah, we were down aprox. 6% on the weekend according to boxofficemojo.

However, also according to boxoffice mojo, we are currently 6% ahead of last summer.
And from now on, we should beat every other weekend from last year.
This weekend last year The Island disappointed and the weekend after that Stealth disappointed, and then the week after that Dukes opened decently, but the box office as a whole was suffering.

With four releases this weekend with great potential, and a few other potential hits in the next 4 weeks. we could go as high as 8-10% above last year, especially if these upcoming kid flicks can pull in some strong weekday numbers, like Cars and Pirates has been doing.
Strong weekdays will go far to halping us beat last year...
the only flicks targeted directly at kids last July/August were Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Sky High (the latter only being a minor hit)

This year there is Monster House, the Ant Bully, Barnyard and Zoom, and Pirates still has some steam left to it.

Here's hoping we can pull well ahead of last year from now till the end of the year...

as of July 16th, 2006 is 6.4% ahead of 2005, and only 3.1% behind 2004, (or a gap of 162 million)

Now, 2004 had a very weak August and September.
In fact, no weekend in September broke 65 million. While Spetember is historically slow at the box office, this is really slow.
There is great potential in October as well, since only one weekend in October 2004 made it past 100 million, and that was the first weekend when Sharktale opened, and still the total for the weekend was only 101 million.

There is great potential to make up some ground and possibly match 2004's gross, which ofcourse would be a great rise from last year...

Good call on 2004. Now that the shadow of TPOTC and F911 are gone - 04 wasnt all that big from here on. I think August and September should be wins for 06, October will be close and perhaps 04 will take Nov - but Dec is winnable for 06.

Yes November isnt winnable this year. The others are. October this year as we've discussed has alot of potential - though 04 was strong. I think shere volume of new product will help 06 get ahead - though average grosses will probably be lower.

I cant even remember what the big movies of Aug 04 were!!??

Yep, 2004 had a strong August.

Talladega Nights should make over $100 million, Snakes on a Plane and Invincible should pull in some strong numbers, and with the million other releases, it should be a good month, overall.

I did a little research and here are some interesting numbers for weekday dailies...

July 10-13 2006 averaged 24 million a day (wow)


July 19 - 22 2004 avg. 16.5 mil a day
July 18 - 21 2005 avg. 19.5 mil a day

July 26 - 29 2004 avg. 17 mil a day
July 25 - 28 2005 avg. 16.5 mil a day


Aug 2 - 5 2004 avg. 15.5 mil a day
Aug 1 - 4 2005 avg. 14 mil a day

Aug 9 - 12 2004 avg. 12 mil a day
Aug 8 - 11 2005 avg. 13 mil a day

If we can get ahead of 2004 dailies by even 1 million a day, that would put us about 20-30 million closer to 2004's gross by the end of the summer.
If we can beat a couple of weekends as well and gain 5 or 10 million on a couple of weekends, I see 2006 having no problem pulling ahead of 2004 in September...

Its good 2006 is rebounding - I think a bit was lost in late May/early June by releasing one film a weekend but I think July's boost is more to do with Pirates than any other film. Pirates single handedly saved the BO. The other films in July have been midling at best - but the sheer number has helped.

I think August should be solid and Sept/Oct look great. November has enough volume and December should be solid.

My only fear is that like July wear we are getting CGI films and Comedies - the studios are no longer careful enough in trying to counter program films and not release similar films. Its a disturbing trend.

Offcourse - we are all waiting for 2007!! IT WILL BE MEGA!!!

Next weekend should be up on 2005 as well.

Feast is showing only in 100 markets : )

So unless there will be mighty holdovers, 2005 should beat this year on that weekend.

Well, Miami Vice flopped, but thanks to Talladega Nights we are still up 6.2% over 2005.

This weekend we were up 6%, next weekend should be somewhere around the same, depending on how strong Snakes on a Plane can open..

2006 is now ahead of every year except for 2004, which had a weak September, so if we can pull some strong numbers this year, we should pull ahead of that as well...

As for 2005, it also had a weak September as well as an equally weak October.
November poses a bit of a problem, but by that time we should be so far ahead that it won't matter.
We should be heading into November about 10% ahead of 2005.

How are we doing?!?!

been pretty much even throughout August.

Go 2005!! What a crappy year 2006 is when I only gave one movie a solid A, heres hoping 2005 wins out after this year so crappy movies dont get released