tombraider beat them all!!

Haha.

I didn't even think of that. bABA is so right on that one. Tomb Raider beat 'em all, and will gross more than Walk the Line, too. So much for quality, eh, Maverikk?

I have a bit of free time. I think I might peruse this thread for a giggle about some of the comments, but while I'm doing that, anybody can be free to join either side.

Highest grossing music biopic: Ray with $75.3 million.

Guess we'll see if it can top Ray.

I'll join this club with some reservation.

The only thing I can compare this film too is Ray which was a "biopic", starring a recently deceased singer, got decent reviews, a handful of oscar nods and the best actor winner. Now with all the being said, it Did Not reach 100 million and the same could happen to Walk the Line but I think one major difference is that Johnny Cash was obviously white which will open it up to a wider audience. Don't think of that distinction as bad it's just a clear fact. The buzz for the film has been brewing of late and been very steady with a load of oscar buzz. There's no doubt that the film will recieve a slew of nods. Put those two factors together and the film should cross the 100 million mark eventually. I"m definitely hot to see it and others I know are as well plus you can't help but enjoy the music of the legend JOhnny Cash.

Hehe, when this one doesn't manage $100 million, I won't create another thread as this thread will stand as a shameful evidence here itself.

still not joining, i dont know, $100M for this movie doesnt seem right

How much is it supposed that Oscar buzz alone can help a film? Like, gimme a guestimate...with NO Oscar buzz/noms/whatever, most movies would lose: ?. 10 mil? 20? more less? what?

This is surprising...why, exactly?

Tomb Raider was a glossy piece of garbage mass-marketed with promotional tie-ins like with Taco Bell and featured Angelina Jolie's mammoth lips and giant boobs.

Of course it did well. Many nerds who couldn't get any otherwise used the film as a sanctuary to confirm their "wildest" wet dreams.

True. Heh.

Zingy, it's not too late, and I won't think less of you, so why don't you reconsider and join. You agree, forfeit the bet, and we all look at you as a wiser man than your partner in crime, Dr. Lecter.

If I were to join (and that's a big if...), I wouldn't do it now, but closer to the release date. Marketing hasn't started yet (T.V. ads and such), so I can't determine how strong hype and marketing will be for atleast another week or two.

Most likely, though? I'm on the other side, just because I'm a gambling man.

Unless it's absolute garbage, it will have some Oscar buzz, even if it ends up not being nominated for Best Picture.

If it is nominated for a few Oscars, then we are looking at this film running Nov - early March.

I'm not doubting it's buzz at all...I'm just wondering how much you all figure buzz CAN help a film. Like, the Aviator, Finding Neverland, Million Dollar Baby, etc obviously got helped by the Oscars...but how much? If nothing changed with the Aviator except no buzz/nominations, would its total have been significantly lower? Are we looking at an extra 2 months at 5 million a week? Or one montha at one mil a week? Is it a range, and if so what range? Numbers. I'm just curious as to what amount people factor into their total predicts based on Oscar along. Does this 100mil club become the 80mil club if not for the Oscars?

Pre-nomination buzz? It's like a chicken and egg thing really.


A good way to look at this is look at what Sideways and Ray were capable of. It's harder to see in something like Walk the Line which is going into its release as a favorite in many categories.


I would say yes. See Cold Mountain.


Probably decreases through mid-January until a theater/nomination bump (if its nominated).


I'm not sure. Like I said... chicken and egg. That's like saying if Star Wars was released in September would it open to less... probably. It's just the innate nature of the season and the type of movie it is (well Star Wars is a bad example).

Personally I'm not in the 100 million club. I think it maybe has that much gas in the tank but, 100 million is a lot of money and based on current cinema trends, it seems like more money than ever before. I'm basing everything on

1. the awards buzz...

2. the fact that movies like Ladder 49 (Joaquin movie) can make $75 million with much worse release dates...

3. the fact that it has a very PRIME release date, even though all the Oscar releases have competition coming from all sides by popular non-Oscar fare.

4. There's a tiny but of Johnny Cash being a popular figure/popular folk hero (never hurts)

5. Recee Witherspoon isn't a box office turn off either.

6. It seems like the only adult-targeted drama film that has a chance at wide appeal (no, I don't think that of Memoirs or the other films)

I'm sure it will open super-wide, if not, it's suicide.

I actually think she'll add more than expected to it's box office.

Maybe. Unless it's Denzel or Tom Cruise I'm likely to say that it's a crapshoot with anybody really. I'm not convinced that one can measure the audience like that.

I'm so not committed on Walk the Line. It is completely being primed for a Best Picture race. It's pretty much the only sure thing at this point that has been screened. The actors are absolute locks too and it's likely that Reece will win.

If this pace keeps going I could see it making anywhere from 75 to 135 at the Box Office. I don't see why this can't make $50 million by November 30. Syriana? Going limited. Pride & Prejudice? No. Rent? Nah. Ice Harvest? Nope. You have to go to December 9 to find its major competiton.

I have no doubt that 20th Century Fox think they can win Best Picture this year, and based on the year they are having, they might be right.

BTW, what is UP with December 9th?!?!?! Syriana (wide), Brokeback Mountain, Chronicles and Memoirs? Chronicles will win hands down but why are 3 HUGE contendors being released on the same damn day (and all going wide!)?!?!?!

So is it just not worth putting out a number on $ a film can make based on Oscar buzz alone? Because, I'm not trying to be a pain here, but that's all I'm really looking for.

Yes, I think 20th Century Fox believes they have enough to make a good run at a win. It'll be interesting if reviews hold up to those levels, but every indication says that it's going to be in the top 5 this year. It could actually pull a win out of this. Reese and Joaquin are going to be frontrunners til the end, and more than likely will be the winners.

It could really catch an Oscar wave because of the music, the performances, the love story (something not very present in other major contenders) If it rides that wave from Nov. 18th to Dec. 17th, the Golden Globe nominations, which it's sure to score something or other, it'll catch another wave. It might be able to go right through to the Globes ceremony, which is Jan. 16th, and then the Oscar nominations are announced on Jan. 25th.

It's got potential to be in theaters for awhile.

There is no doubt that it will get Golden Globe nomination, and sight unseen I would give Walk the Line a 80% chance of winning that award (with The Producers being the only other logical candidate).

2005 - Sideways
2004 - Lost in Translation
2003 - Chicago
2002 - Moulin Rouge!
2001 - Almost Famous
2000 - Toy Story 2
1999 - Shakespeare in Love
1998 - As Good as it Gets
1997 - Evita
1996 - Babe

In the past ten years of winners, 7 times has the winner been nominated for an Academy Award. Toy Story didn't get one for obvious reasons and Almost Famous is considered to be viciously snubbed by the Academy... the only one that's really out of place is Evita.

And gosh, even Evita, a movie that never broke more than 1100 theaters did $50 million in the US, 8 years ago!

You said it once again. Argh!

Why dismissing Will Smith or Adam Sandler or Jim Carrey....? All of them are bigger than Denzel for instance. By far.

What abut Rent? I'd say it has quite a shot as well.

Well you would be wrong.

And you know that how exactly...?

Considering Rent is directed by Chris Columbus, I have a hard time seeing the Academy and HFP go for it.