It's falling rather quickly now, though, for Avatar standards anyway. If you look at the weekly grosses, 3 weeks ago i think it did about $90m, then $65m and now $40m, next week could be only $25m if it continues on that path. It needs to stabilize and that right now if it wants to have any chance or grosses will become too small to make up the gap to $2b.

$2 billion OS is definitely possible still.

What do you predict for next week's gross?

It all depends on how whether Avatar wins best pic tonight or not.

Depends on the Oscar night. Without the win (realistic) around $28-29 million.

It's going to be close, needs the Best Picture win/.

One of the largest drops for Avatar to date. In it's 12th week.,,,


Avatar - $1,883,000,000 ($21.7m - 68/5622)
Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $679,422,744 ($9.4m - 60/3547)
Ice Age 3: Dawn Of The Dinosaurs - $669,614,962 ($4,352,556 - 32)
Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - $648,350,000 ($569,881 - 22)
Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $643,700,000 ($740,000 - 22)
Pirates Of The Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest - $625,347,000 ($7,360,000 - 36/3437)
The Da Vinci Code - $530,379,145 ($1,324,724 - 33/935)

Thats interesting...

So ROTK made another $60 million from this point forward. Avatar is about 133% ahead of ROTK at this point with weekend grosses as you indicated ($21.7m vs. $9.4m). 133% * $60 million = $140 million...

If it maintains that pace it easily gets by the mark.

ROTK got very good post-Oscar bump with its 11 wins, something Avatar won't benefit.

And ROTK hadn't opened in China yet at this point....it did so in Week 13

Coming off an inflated weekend (last week of February was a school holiday, and the weekend benefited from it because weekends are measured Thur-Sun in Holland) Avatar had its steepest drop yet, but still held onto the #1 spot.

1 AVATAR €413.321 weekend (-43,9%), €17.428.016 total

It's not going to catch Titanic's €23-something million euro total, but it's already a very solid #2 on the chart, with the gap between it and RotK only getting wider.

$2,603,908,904

http://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice

AUSTRALIA (AUD$) - Weekend 12

Biggest drop to date, and about to drop below $1m for the first time.

Note: Shrek 2 dissapeared off the Top 12 after 11 weeks, it's total would be above ROTK at around $50.2m.

Avatar - $109,539,127 ($1,003,500, -41%)
Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $48,148,256 ($593,144, +16%)
The Dark Knight - $45,419,853 ($128,888, -5%)
Lord Of The Rings: FOTR - $45,051,606 ($222,444, -27%)
Lord Of The Rings: TTT - $44,773,690 ($142,392, -35%)
Harry Potter 1: PS - $41,507,314 ($106,569, -53%)
Harry Potter 6: HBP - $40,444,229 ($55,263, -11%) - OUT
Titanic - $40,239,708 ($1,405,107, -14%)
Star Wars 1: PM - $37,833,975 ($118,023, -42%)
Harry Potter 2: COS - $37,009,842 ($81,701, -4%) - OUT
Finding Nemo - $36,915,521 ($91,299, -21%) - OUT

Arch! is there any chance that it can make $100+m in USD in Australia?

Poland update
Avatar 11th weekend - 51 989 adm. (-42%)
Total after 10th weekend - 3 444 571 adm.
Total in PLN and USD - 82 566 870 PLN or ~$28 800 000 USD

All time admissions ( post 1989 )

1. Ogniem i mieczem 7 151 354 adm.
2. Pan Tadeusz 6 168 344 adm
3. Quo vadis 4 300 351 adm
4. Titanic 3 513 480 adm
5. Passion of the Christ 3 461 047 adm
6. Avatar 3 444 571 adm
7. Shrek 2 - 3 395 226 adm
8. Shrek Third 3 352 469 adm
9. Katyn 2 754 610 adm
10. Jurassic Park 2 735 908 adm
11. Lion King 2 722 830 adm
12. LOTR: FOTR 2 529 799 adm
13. Lejdis 2 529 122 adm
14. Harry Potter 1- 2 518 282 adm
15. Madagascar 2 - 2 238 751 adm
16. W pustyni i w puszczy 2 227 228 adm
17. Kiler 2 200 943 adm
18. LOTR: ROTK 2 089 415 adm
19. Ice Age 3 1 990 185 adm.
20. Zemsta 1 976 675 adm
21. Ice Age 2: Meltdown 1 946 964 adm
22. Pope John Paul II 1 913 155 adm
23. Karol, un Papa rimasto uomo 1 878 124 adm

Top 11 of all time in $

1. Avatar ~$28,800,000
2. Ogniem i mieczem $26,366,071
3. Pan Tadeusz $20,879,608
4. Lejdis $18,484,522
5. Shrek 3 $18,014,551
6. Quo vadis $16,863,883
7. Titanic $14,078,241
8. Katyn $13,558,634
9. Ice Age 3 $13,316,123
10. Shrek 2 $12,862,625
11. Passion of the Christ $11,667,664

Top 19 of all time in PLN

1. Ogniem i mieczem - 105,1 mln zł
2. Pan Tadeusz - 82,8 mln zł
3. Avatar - 82,6 mln zł
4. Quo Vadis - 69,0 mln zł
5. Shrek 3 - 49,7 mln zł
6. Titanic - 49,1 mln zł
7. Shrek 2 - 48,2 mln zł
8. Passion of the Christ - 44,7 mln zł
9. Lejdis - 41,7 mln zł
10. Ice Age 3 - 39,5 mln zł
11. Madagaskar 2 - 36,7 mln zł
12. Lotr: FOTR - 36,4 mln zł
13. Katyn - 35,2 mln zł
14. Harry Potter 1 - 31,5 mln zł
15. Lotr ROTK - 30,1 mln zł
16. 2012 - 27,8 mln zł
17. Ice Age 2 - 27,5 mln zł
18. LOTR TTT - 25,6 mln zł
19. W pustyni i w puszczy 25,4 mln zł

Biggest drop so far for Avatar. Expected with the lose of IMAX screenings. Titanic will sink during next weekend. Still looking at 3.7M adm finish.

Mesjarch,
why do you have pre-1989 and post 1989 list. I saw a film having 32M+ admissions before 1989.

http://www.stopklatka.pl/boxoffice/default.asp?bi=128

The list was made for few reasons:
1) pre-1989 it was time when there were not many movies shown in cinemas and only few foreign movies were allowed to be shown.
2) pre-1989 tickets were mostly sponsored by public companies to their workers.
3) numbers can't be tracked because many times cinema owners gave higher numbers to get higher bonuses from government.
4) democracy vs communism - totally different eras - now you have to sell tickets to keep the business running, before 1989 - you didn't have to because public money would keep it running.
5) There is no way to beat those numbers from pre-1989 and that would kill the interest in box office because no records could be beaten.

Of course those numbers are still listed for the all-time statistics.

^^^

Thanks.That makes perfect sense. Even the local movies themselves would have changed significantly since 1989.

I think it will....next weekend, it will need a good hold.

BOM has it at $99,479,736.
Should crack $100m this upcoming weekend.

[Australia Box Office
March 4–7, 2010]
1. Alice in Wonderland $9,424,165 - $9,424,165
2. The Blind Side $1,568,701 - $5,053,131
3. Dear John $1,517,467 - $1,517,467
4. Shutter Island $1,096,123 - $7,074,646
5. Avatar $911,345 - $99,479,736

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/austr ... =10&p=.htm

Then it's a total lock

BTW - On Wednesday AVATAR surpassed the 10m admissions mark in Germany!

PICK the followup INTL. (by Arch) thread to Avatar.

Besides Harry Potter: Deathly Hallows Part 1, I only plan to create one other INTL. thread for this year, which one do you guys want to see

* Clash Of The Titans
* Toy Story 3
* Prince Of Persia
* Inception
* Chronicles of Narnia: Dawn Treader

I'm not really interested in any of the other big movies so I'll leave those ones to my colleagues.

I will make my decision this time next week with your feedback.

Inception