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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37162 Location: The Graveyard
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
Mannyisthebest wrote: I was looking at the future schedule. Is it me or is it like locked that TF2 will win next year and will likely be like ROTS in 2005 and DMC in 2006, being the only huge event film next year???
X-men Origins will be in the same situation as Iron Man. No big movie for almost 2 months and decent competition. However I see instead a gross of 75/200 million.
Next Memorial day will be weird with a Terminator spinoff and a Christmas film. I don't know what will happen.
However to me the only very hyped film and prehaps the first event film does not appear till the end of June!!
Transformers 2 is easily set to knock down spiderman 3 record.... It will have lots of attention as it there will be only smaller films grossing max 40 million in their first weekend.
My basis is simple, what is its competition and really to me 2009 seems to be a sequel free year. We saw this in 2005-2006 and this usually lead to a lot of sub 300 million films but then one film breaking out getting close to 400 million. Biggish films (might be missing some, dunno) with release dates: Hannah Montana and X-Men: May 1st Terminator 4 - May 22nd Up - May 29th Transformer 2 - June 26th Ice Age 3 - July 1st GI Joe - August 7th A Christmas Carol - November 6th Avatar - Decemeber 18th Nothing has potential at 300+ besides Transformers 2. Avatar being a big wild card. When is Prince of Persia coming out? **And if any of these dates have changed, don't blame me for being wrong.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Mon May 19, 2008 5:17 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm Posts: 8202
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
Mannyisthebest wrote: True there will be a lot of 200 million grosses next year. No doubt about that, but there will not be an event film (250 million +) in May....
However imo, the only film with a chance to make over 250 million before July is Transformers 2 next year...
The hype will be massive, the market will be quite open and it will face Ice age 3.
I see around 135-150 million opening weekend with a gross about 330-380 million domestic.
I don't know about that Disaster film called 2012. I was just gonna talk about 2012. That movie on paper looks epic and huge but I am not sure if the shooting has started yet for it. Quote: John Cusack has signed on to topline Roland Emmerich's (10,000 B.C., The Day After Tomorrow, Independence Day) apocalyptic thriller 2012 for Columbia Pictures, reports Variety.
Chiwetel Ejiofor also is in talks to join the big-budget epic, which chronicles the end days of human civilization.
The story centers on an academic researcher who opens a portal into a parallel universe and makes contact with his double in order to prevent an apocalypse predicted by the ancient Mayans.
Emmerich and Harald Kloser wrote the screenplay. Shooting will begin in July in Los Angeles for a July 10, 2009 release. comingsoon.net
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Mon May 19, 2008 5:18 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8642 Location: Toronto, Canada
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
Hannah Montana and X-Men: Hannah could do 100 million and X-men could pull off 200 million do to the fact the marketplace is empty.
Terminator 4 - May 22nd: I have no clue about this, however nothing over 200-220 million looks possible. Up - May 29th: It will do the usual 200 million pixar Ice Age 3 - July 1st: This can be huge however its after TF, so the opening will not be effected.
The May films have 1 200 million grosser and 2 possible ones. June is empty....
TF is easily set to dominate the market. Ice Age 3 can do well however the 2nd film was not well liked.
_________________The Dark Prince 
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Mon May 19, 2008 5:22 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm Posts: 8202
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
Mannyisthebest wrote: Hannah Montana and X-Men: Hannah could do 100 million and X-men could pull off 200 million do to the fact the marketplace is empty.
Terminator 4 - May 22nd: I have no clue about this, however nothing over 200-220 million looks possible. Up - May 29th: It will do the usual 200 million pixar Ice Age 3 - July 1st: This can be huge however its after TF, so the opening will not be effected.
The May films have 1 200 million grosser and 2 possible ones. June is empty....
TF is easily set to dominate the market. Ice Age 3 can do well however the 2nd film was not well liked. Don't forget NATM 2 which comes out same date as Terminator and so can hurt that flick because all the kiddies will be watching that.
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Mon May 19, 2008 5:24 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8642 Location: Toronto, Canada
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
Oh yes that will gross 200 million as well.
_________________The Dark Prince 
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Mon May 19, 2008 5:27 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22182 Location: Places
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
no it wont, natm2 has same problem nrnia 2 had-idiotic scheduling. it needs to stay in winter.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Mon May 19, 2008 5:28 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm Posts: 8202
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
Straight cash, homie wrote: no it wont, natm2 has same problem nrnia 2 had-idiotic scheduling. it needs to stay in winter. True but NATM 2 is not darker and will be the first big family movie of summer 2008. I think it will no doubt drop a good 50-60 million but fox will make sure they market it like crazy. To be honest they have always proven that WB film is no threat to them. They release the perfect counterprogramming movies and make shitload of it.
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Mon May 19, 2008 5:36 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22182 Location: Places
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
itll do mid 100s if it stays where it is.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Mon May 19, 2008 5:37 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm Posts: 8202
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
Straight cash, homie wrote: itll do mid 100s if it stays where it is. WB film is no threat to FOX. Shove that up in your ass.
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Mon May 19, 2008 5:40 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22182 Location: Places
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
chill with that fire.
terminator 4 will defeat natm because terminator is a summer film. natm 2 isnt.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Mon May 19, 2008 5:42 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm Posts: 21572
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
I also see the problem with Fox easily giving free advertising to Terminator because of their Sarah Connor Chronicle show that returns next season unless something drastically happens that the show is cancelled. Fox will try to use the type also to benefit the show and also helping the rival movie out at the same time. Pretty much they have no choice to promote it for them. Also the date shift would hurt NATM2. I still see it grossing around 150 million but like Scooby Doo 2, it will experience a drop
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Mon May 19, 2008 6:03 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23255 Location: Melbourne Australia
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
May needs a radical restructure. NATM2 has to move to Christmas and T4 just isnt strong enough for Memorial Day. Star Trek also needs to move - maybe to late summer.
Offcourse Transformers will be the biggie. $350m+ looks likely. Wolverine has $230m+ potential. Up, Ice Age 3D, Angels and Demons are all $150m+ contenders.
The wild cards are Prince of Persia (June) and 2012 War of Souls (July). One of them should move to Memorial Day Weekend. Preferably 2012 while PoP moves to its July slot.
A-Team could also be a biggie - possibly $200m+ if its good.
Apatow directs a comedy late in July also.
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Mon May 19, 2008 6:33 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8642 Location: Toronto, Canada
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
if 2012 moves to Memorial day, it will at least do as well as the Day after Tomorrow. Also remember there is no shrek 2.
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Mon May 19, 2008 6:35 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm Posts: 8202
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
Fox aint moving natm to december because avatar is there and they want to focus on that movie for december. It is a big movie with big director and they will do everything in their power to make that a hit if that means sacrificing a stupid natm sequel.
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Mon May 19, 2008 6:52 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8642 Location: Toronto, Canada
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
Avatar could be huge.
Any event film that is alone usually does really well or at least opens well.
Just Asking, whenever has a major event film which faced zero competition flopped??
_________________The Dark Prince 
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Mon May 19, 2008 6:57 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23255 Location: Melbourne Australia
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
Mannyisthebest wrote: Avatar could be huge.
Any event film that is alone usually does really well or at least opens well.
Just Asking, whenever has a major event film which faced zero competition flopped?? I take it you mean an event film that opened alone on its weekend? Outright flops are rare - but there have been some major dissapointments...most notably Godzilla, A.I, Troy, MI3, The Last Action Hero and to a lesser extent Pearl Harbour, Armageddon, Prince Caspian (all of which will hover around the $200m mark but were dissapointing).
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What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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Mon May 19, 2008 10:35 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8642 Location: Toronto, Canada
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
Lol my prediction for Troy was the worst I ever made at 70/305. That would have meant it would need better legs then ROTK!!! 
_________________The Dark Prince 
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Mon May 19, 2008 10:42 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23255 Location: Melbourne Australia
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
Mannyisthebest wrote: Lol my prediction for Troy was the worst I ever made at 70/305. That would have meant it would need better legs then ROTK!!!   Dont worry, I was adament it would do $310m+ 
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What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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Mon May 19, 2008 11:42 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8642 Location: Toronto, Canada
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
The R rating killed it, but how can you have a film set in the time of Classical antiquity without it being rated R??? Even Ben-Hur and Spartacus had some questionable stuff in it... 
_________________The Dark Prince 
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Mon May 19, 2008 11:48 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22182 Location: Places
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
terminator wil be fine.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Tue May 20, 2008 12:36 am |
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BK
Forum General
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:30 am Posts: 7041
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
well with the flop narnia has become, domestically that is ,not worldwide where it should be in the safe green, this thread's even more important. i still maintain that it flopped mainly because of it's release date which is shit. i don't mean being sandwhiched by Indiana and Iron Man or whatever movie you choose but, there wasn't a summer movie blockbuster feeling with this. it was and will always be a winter movie and if they dare make the next one it should be in the winter, as if it wasn't obvious enough now. also night at the museum and alvin to flop with their release dates.
_________________ Calls Ghost Rider + Clash of the Titans = 2x Wrath of the Titans + Ghost Rider 2 Lorax over Despicable Me Men in Black 3 Under 100m Madagascar 3 Under 100m Rise of the Guardians over 250m
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Sat May 24, 2008 5:42 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23255 Location: Melbourne Australia
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
BK wrote: well with the flop narnia has become, domestically that is ,not worldwide where it should be in the safe green, this thread's even more important. i still maintain that it flopped mainly because of it's release date which is shit. i don't mean being sandwhiched by Indiana and Iron Man or whatever movie you choose but, there wasn't a summer movie blockbuster feeling with this. it was and will always be a winter movie and if they dare make the next one it should be in the winter, as if it wasn't obvious enough now. also night at the museum and alvin to flop with their release dates. Yes. Though its not the sole reason, the release date choice for Narnia was just stupid. It cant even benefit from school holidays and the film that comes after it is Indy which also has fantasy undertones. December or July would have been better for it.
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What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
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Sat May 24, 2008 6:29 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
Holy crap - I didn't realize how packed October 24th is. Though they are aimed at different audiences, I'm surprised that Saw V, "...Into You", or HSM 3 hasn't moved to an earlier weekend.
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Wed May 28, 2008 2:26 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22182 Location: Places
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
rt where you been at?
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Wed May 28, 2008 3:28 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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 Re: The Official Movie Release Date Schedule
Straight cash, homie wrote: rt where you been at? 90% real-life, 10% stuff you'd never believe. Haha. You doing good, my friend? 
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Wed May 28, 2008 3:50 pm |
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