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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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 Re: Avatar (INTL.) mark66 wrote: Dr. Lecter, have you seen it yet?
Many theater owners reported to me that WOM is excellent and people are already buying tickets for their second viewing. I wouldn't rule it out that it comes close to IA3... Yes, I have, I loved it and WoM will be very good (I went with four people and three of them loved it). I am also going to see it again and maybe even a third time (maybe). But it is opening with 800,000 or so...so just excellent WoM isn't going to cut it. I mean many films have great WoM but ti approach even 7 million admissions (which I suppose what it'll roughly need to pass IA3 in gross) is quite a stretch. In admissions it's not passing it either. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:16 pm |
 
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm
Posts: 13054
Location: Augsburg (2,040 years young)
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) Just two years ago KEINOHRHASEN opened with 451,058 tickets on its way to 6.3m the week before xmas.
Plus, I heard that in some places Sunday was better than Saturday so my 800,000 estimate might be a bit low...
I'm pretty sure that AVATAR will do more than $700m internationally... and I'm pretty confident that AVATAR will become the No. 2 grosser worldwide...
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:22 pm |
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Jiffy
Forum General
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:27 pm
Posts: 6152
Location: New York
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) mark66 wrote: Just two years ago KEINOHRHASEN opened with 451,058 tickets on its way to 6.3m the week before xmas.
Plus, I heard that in some places Sunday was better than Saturday so my 800,000 estimate might be a bit low...
I'm pretty sure that AVATAR will do more than $700m internationally... and I'm pretty confident that AVATAR will become the No. 2 grosser worldwide... I could actually see $700m+ overseas in theory and depending on how it does in China/Japan, but I think #2 WW would be a harder row to hoe.
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:24 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) mark66 wrote: Just two years ago KEINOHRHASEN opened with 451,058 tickets on its way to 6.3m the week before xmas.
Plus, I heard that in some places Sunday was better than Saturday so my 800,000 estimate might be a bit low...
I'm pretty sure that AVATAR will do more than $700m internationally... and I'm pretty confident that AVATAR will become the No. 2 grosser worldwide... I KNEW you'd mention Keinohrhasen. That film was a phenomenon, though. And I'd argue it had better WoM in Germany from all I heard so far. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:25 pm |
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Archangel
Forum General
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 9998
Location: Australia
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) Jiffy208 wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Archangel wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: MadGez wrote: Fantastic numbers! Lets hope it can dethrone IA3 overseas. $690 million? Hardly That looks out of reach, thought I wouldn't be surprised to see $600-620m. That's possible, but not $690+ million I think. The problem are just some of the key markets like Germany (where Avatar won't get even close to Ice Age 3)... On the other hand, Avatar may actually do something in Japan.  How did IA3 do in China, too? That's the thing isn't it. If it ends up doing like $30m in China and $100m+ in Japan, then $700m may not be out of the question.
_________________
Im Archangel. Telin le thaed.
Lasto beth nin, tolo dan nan galad.
I surrender who I've been for who you are
Nothing makes me stronger than your fragile heart
If I had only felt how it feels to be yours
I would have known what I've been living for all along
What I've been living for
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:26 pm |
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Archangel
Forum General
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 9998
Location: Australia
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) mark66 wrote: Just two years ago KEINOHRHASEN opened with 451,058 tickets on its way to 6.3m the week before xmas.
Plus, I heard that in some places Sunday was better than Saturday so my 800,000 estimate might be a bit low...
I'm pretty sure that AVATAR will do more than $700m internationally... and I'm pretty confident that AVATAR will become the No. 2 grosser worldwide... That's a bold statement to say that it'll beat even ROTK, though not impossible....in fact, it's looking 50/50 at this stage. It'll be pretty line-ball with ROTK domestically......though overseas, if it can gross $750m it may just do it.
_________________
Im Archangel. Telin le thaed.
Lasto beth nin, tolo dan nan galad.
I surrender who I've been for who you are
Nothing makes me stronger than your fragile heart
If I had only felt how it feels to be yours
I would have known what I've been living for all along
What I've been living for
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:28 pm |
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Archangel
Forum General
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 9998
Location: Australia
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) Dr. Lecter wrote: mark66 wrote: Just two years ago KEINOHRHASEN opened with 451,058 tickets on its way to 6.3m the week before xmas.
Plus, I heard that in some places Sunday was better than Saturday so my 800,000 estimate might be a bit low...
I'm pretty sure that AVATAR will do more than $700m internationally... and I'm pretty confident that AVATAR will become the No. 2 grosser worldwide... I KNEW you'd mention Keinohrhasen. That film was a phenomenon, though. And I'd argue it had better WoM in Germany from all I heard so far. Anything is possible with this movie it seems.
_________________
Im Archangel. Telin le thaed.
Lasto beth nin, tolo dan nan galad.
I surrender who I've been for who you are
Nothing makes me stronger than your fragile heart
If I had only felt how it feels to be yours
I would have known what I've been living for all along
What I've been living for
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:30 pm |
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Jiffy
Forum General
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:27 pm
Posts: 6152
Location: New York
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) See I think domestic side will end up being comparatively weaker. I dunno if it can match ROTK here, while overseas strikes me as a greater possibility.
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:31 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) Jiffy208 wrote: See I think domestic side will end up being comparatively weaker. I dunno if it can match ROTK here, while overseas strikes me as a greater possibility. Well that's starting to become something regular anyway. I mean for films like 2012 or Ice Age 3 or Mamma Mia! the discrepancy is even bigger. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:33 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) But I say this. If it manages to hit $100 million in Japan (which I am not predicting) then, yes, $700+ million OS is happening.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:33 pm |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm
Posts: 13054
Location: Augsburg (2,040 years young)
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) Jiffy208 wrote: See I think domestic side will end up being comparatively weaker. I dunno if it can match ROTK here, while overseas strikes me as a greater possibility. It will be somewhere at $250m by January 3rd and than it has 8 additional weeks until the next 3D or IMAX movie including two holiday weekends (MLK, Presidents)...
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:34 pm |
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Jiffy
Forum General
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:27 pm
Posts: 6152
Location: New York
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) Dr. Lecter wrote: Jiffy208 wrote: See I think domestic side will end up being comparatively weaker. I dunno if it can match ROTK here, while overseas strikes me as a greater possibility. Well that's starting to become something regular anyway. I mean for films like 2012 or Ice Age 3 or Mamma Mia! the discrepancy is even bigger. Right, which is why I think $700m may actually be within the realm of possibility.
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 7:34 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) Terrific opening! A little disappointed in UK and (again) Germany, though. Hopefully legs will make up for that...
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 8:37 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm
Posts: 8202
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) India's opening is good but it isn't a lock to beat either SM3 or 2012. Both those movies had less competition in 2nd weekend.
Avatar will be going up against one of the most anticipated bollywood movie of this year "3 Idiots".
The movie stars Aamir Khan and is directed by a guy who has delivered 1 superhit and 1 blockbuster. Also, Aamir Khan delivered the biggest bollywood blockbuster of all time with Ghajini last year that came out around same time as 3 idiots.
Now 3 Idiots doesn't has the same wide appeal as Ghajini had last year but it is based on a best seller novel in India and Aamir's movies do very well in multiplexes so that could affect Avatar's multiplex business.
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:09 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) LadiesMan217 wrote: Avatar will be going up against one of the most anticipated bollywood movie of this year "3 Idiots".  _________________
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:11 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
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Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) Nazgul9 wrote: LadiesMan217 wrote: Avatar will be going up against one of the most anticipated bollywood movie of this year "3 Idiots". I know lol Here is the synopsis Quote: Two friends (Madhavan and Sharman Joshi) embark on a quest for a lost buddy. On this journey, they encounter a long forgotten bet, a wedding they must crash, and a funeral that goes impossibly out of control. As they make their way through the perilous landscape, another journey begins: their inner journey through memory lane and the story of their friend- the irrepressible free-thinker Rancho (Aamir Khan), who in his unique way, touched and changed their lives. It's a story of their hostel days that swings between rancho's romance with the spirited Pia (Kareena Kapoor), and his clash with and oppressive mentor, Viru Sahastrabudhhe (Boman Irani). And then one day, suddenly, Rancho vanishes...
Who was he? Where did he come from? Why did he leave?
The friend who influenced and inspired them to think creatively and independently, even as the conformist world called them three idiots. Where is the original idiot now?
Finally, in misty mountains of unparalleled beauty, the find the key to the secret.
Three Idiots is comedy of ideas that is a provocative as it is funny, as wildly entertaining as it is insightful. A laugh-riot that talks about the most important of human pursuits: self-actualization.
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:42 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) I'll rent it.... probably... never...
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:59 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) Nazgul9 wrote: I'll rent it.... probably... never... well duh
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 10:04 pm |
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Box
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:52 am
Posts: 25990
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) omg im so excited for japan's numbers! this is the kind of film they're supposed to eat up! $100m+ please please pleaseeeeeeeee
_________________In order of preference: Christian, Argos MadGez wrote: Briefs. Am used to them and boxers can get me in trouble it seems. Too much room and maybe the silkiness have created more than one awkward situation. My Box-Office Blog: http://boxofficetracker.blogspot.com/
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:07 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm
Posts: 8202
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) Box wrote: omg im so excited for japan's numbers! this is the kind of film they're supposed to eat up! $100m+ please please pleaseeeeeeeee Japan nowadays is being tough on hollywood films. Movies do less than expected. As long as Avatar does some good business then all iz well. Hopefully it doesn't bomb like ice age 3. Imagine if IA3 was a monster hit in japan. 
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:17 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) Yeah, it's like Princess Mononoke with mechs.  But then again, King Kong did little there. While probably not quite as Japan friendly Kong and monster movies in general were supposed to be quite popular there.  <- that's me being nervous... _________________
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:24 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37162
Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) It'll do well in Japan. On Eiga (popular entertainment site) it's the 3rd most popular film at the moment and has a front page article. It's going to be a 5-day opening, so I'd expect something around $5 for the 3-day. http://eiga.com/The most popular films are on the right, under the most popular celebs. _________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:26 pm |
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MARVEL_ROCKS
Forum General
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2007 6:11 pm
Posts: 8202
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) You know Avatar opened with $1.4M in South Korea compared to $1.9M of 2012. But it seems the superb WOM resulted in $10.8M for the weekend compared to $9.9M for 2012.
I am sure it will hold very well next weekend. $110+M
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:29 pm |
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Jiffy
Forum General
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:27 pm
Posts: 6152
Location: New York
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) I always forget that ROTK did $95m in Japan. So weird that they suddenly got on board with the franchise at the last minute.
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:32 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: Avatar (INTL.) We are not talking about well, though. $100m is more than well. Only number 3 on the popularity list? What is number 1 & 2? Sorry, i can't see anything on the right... _________________
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| Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:32 pm |
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