21 million/60 million
I dont think legs will be as bad everyone says but I dont think it will have a gigantic opening either

Same here. There is a ton of Internet hype that just doesn't exist outside of our computer screens.

Even if the film somehow gets better-than-expected legs, it'll be no where close to 3.0x. I actually think it's impossible. At best, I see a 2.5x multiplier.

Oh, and my theater started selling tickets for SOAP's 10:00PM and midnight showing. It's having both.

Yeah, so is mine. Does that mean anything? It would seem to be a good sign but can anyone else confirm?

This thread keeps growing and growing. Who'd of thought a prediction thread for a movie called Snakes on a Plane would reach 7 pages?

Didn't the Walk the Line prediction thread reach like 30 pages? Heh.

No comment

Hahahahaha.

2 points for Roid.

Um, ok?

Unnecessary cheap shot. He doesn't deserve that when he hasn't even been here recently.

That was an Oscar contender with several big names and therefore not comparable in the least. What does this have? Sam Jackson, Kenan Thompson, and Sunny Mabrey along with a bunch of snakes. On a plane. Again, they're not comparable in the least, even you should see that.

Giving this a bump. Does anyone sense buzz for this outside of the Internet? I asked my co-workers if they want to see this and they responded, "Snakes on whaaaa?". I think RS is overshooting this by a considerable margin. I can see this opening in the low 20's, but possibly lower. After all, it is an August action film about snakes on a plane. And, despite the simplistic self-explanatory title, I just don't see it appealing to that broad of an audience.

Revising with somewhat better legs:

$22M/$56M

Asking your coworkers doesn't mean anything. Maybe they don't watch much TV or don't go to movies often at all, therefore their opinion means little as they don't generally see movies anyway. How old are they is another pertinent question. If they're older than the 16-30 age range being targeted by this movie, that's another factor to take into consideration.

Whah? You can't divide people into those who go to all movies and those who go to no movies. By that reasoning, it wouldn't matter WHAT the movie is, and all movies would make the same box office. And of course that's not true. Whether or not people go to a movie at all depends on what the movie is.

If RoleyPoleyThundy asked who was going to Pirates II, I bet he'd get a very different answer.

45 opening
52 final

32 / 66

Yes, it would matter because they may not go to a movie like SOAP. Especially if they're older, they likely aren't going to be interested in SOAP or if they're elitist like some on this board...

Then of course they wouldn't be interested because SOAP is "below" them as if they are so much better than anyone else and the only movies they watch are films like Citizen Kane and Casablanca.

SOAP is for people who just want to have fun and don't care if every single movie they see has a message or some deep meaning. In other words, the people who actually like to have fun once in a while.

*sigh* you completely missed the point. Your original argument was that asking people at work didn't matter because they might not be the type of person to go to movies. I countered that whether a person goes to a movie depends on the movie, not whether he's the type to go. Either way, asking people at work DOES matter, especially if you have a larger sample size and a diverse workplace.

On another note, for what it's worth, I saw one of the sides of the buildings in downtown Washington DC draped with a 30 ft teaser Snakes poster. I'm also seeing the Snakes teaser poster on bus stops now.

[excel]Awareness is sky-hi..SOAP is gonna make $350M!!![/excel]

Estimated theater count is 3,300.

So much for "OMG it's gonna be in 2,500 theaters even though it's announced a month ahead of time!!!"

It still worries me that SOAP isn't on the Yahoo Buzz Chart yet, but even so, I still think an $8,000 PTA is achieveable, giving it around $26-27m opening weekend. $30m isn't a "stretch," though.

Yeah, but he never said how many people he asked. It could have just been 2 people, hardly a representative sample which was my point in the first place as to why asking people at your work isn't really valid. Who is to say they didn't shape their responses because of the manner in which they were asked or because others were around and they didn't want to sound strange by saying they wanted to see a movie called Snakes on a Plane?

An anonymous phone survey (the way tracking is done) is the best way of determining whether someone wants to see a movie, not by asking them at work where they could be influenced by any number of factors.

That's a hell of a lot of theatres, more than I expected certainly. I thought it would get around 2800 at the most like Ellis' FD2 received. I guess the buzz upped the count significantly. It should make over 20 millon fairly easily now.

I still say lower than Miami Vice's opening weekend
22 to 24 million
60 million total

Yup and still not on yahoo buzz so one thing that it tells me is the joke has basically worn itself out. It seems to have dropped down on the imdb chart too