The Avatar Prediction|Tracking Thread/ (Aug. 27 re-release)
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37162 Location: The Graveyard
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
This is just guessing. :-p
I'm just going with a slightly better IM than the the films received in 1998 (which I don't like using though). For upper 60's, 27m or so.
If $24m holds, that's also the biggest single January day (and saturday, sunday, weekend and all that too). Which has been known for at least week now, but I don't think it was pointed out by anyone yet.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
Last edited by Corpse on Sat Jan 02, 2010 4:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 4:24 am |
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Enki
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 2:20 pm Posts: 88 Location: Chicago
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
mdana wrote: Enki wrote: mdana wrote: Shack wrote: Avatar should be at 340 mil after 17 days. TDK of course made 400 mil in 17 days.
Avatar will only be 60 mil behind TDK after this weekend! TDK made 50 mil in its 4th week as a whole (from 18th day-24th day). Avatar SHOULD make 90 at the least.
Titanic day 17 total $157,467,971 Titanic day 24 total $197,881,813 Those are the periods I was comparing.  I said biased because I am obviously "biasing" myself by taking different points, because I think that Avatar will hold its strong Box Office during the winter even better than Titanic did I have to give you that the drop after Monday is going to be noticeable. It must be. Otherwise I'd be predicting over 1.2 billion domestic We'll know for sure by MLK
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 4:28 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36949
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Corpse wrote: This is just guessing. :-p
I'm just going with a slightly better IM than the the films received in 1998 (which I don't like using though). For upper 60's, 27m or so. Hmm... I too agree on that but I think so even with 24M Friday there should be 23M,19M on sat, sun respectively that should make it 66M. upper 60's eh 
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 4:31 am |
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mdana
Veteran
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:07 pm Posts: 3004
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Enki wrote: mdana wrote: Enki wrote: mdana wrote: Shack wrote: Avatar should be at 340 mil after 17 days. TDK of course made 400 mil in 17 days.
Avatar will only be 60 mil behind TDK after this weekend! TDK made 50 mil in its 4th week as a whole (from 18th day-24th day). Avatar SHOULD make 90 at the least.
Titanic day 17 total $157,467,971 Titanic day 24 total $197,881,813 Those are the periods I was comparing.  I said biased because I am obviously "biasing" myself by taking different points, because I think that Avatar will hold its strong Box Office during the winter even better than Titanic did I have to give you that the drop after Monday is going to be noticeable. It must be. Otherwise I'd be predicting over 1.2 billion domestic We'll know for sure by MLK Excuse me but how is it biased? I was using Shack's own criteria, not mine...
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 4:40 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36949
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
mdana wrote: Enki wrote: mdana wrote: Enki wrote: mdana wrote: Shack wrote: Avatar should be at 340 mil after 17 days. TDK of course made 400 mil in 17 days.
Avatar will only be 60 mil behind TDK after this weekend! TDK made 50 mil in its 4th week as a whole (from 18th day-24th day). Avatar SHOULD make 90 at the least.
Titanic day 17 total $157,467,971 Titanic day 24 total $197,881,813 Those are the periods I was comparing.  I said biased because I am obviously "biasing" myself by taking different points, because I think that Avatar will hold its strong Box Office during the winter even better than Titanic did I have to give you that the drop after Monday is going to be noticeable. It must be. Otherwise I'd be predicting over 1.2 billion domestic We'll know for sure by MLK Excuse me but how is it biased? I was using Shack's own criteria, not mine... I guess he was being biased himself to make Avatar a success
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 5:02 am |
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Enki
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 2:20 pm Posts: 88 Location: Chicago
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
 I said biased because I am obviously "biasing" myself by taking different points, because I think that Avatar will hold its strong Box Office during the winter even better than Titanic did I have to give you that the drop after Monday is going to be noticeable. It must be. Otherwise I'd be predicting over 1.2 billion domestic We'll know for sure by MLK[/quote] Excuse me but how is it biased? I was using Shack's own criteria, not mine...[/quote] I guess he was being biased himself to make Avatar a success[/quote] You guessed right. I am biased to make Avatar a success... and I am damn good at it because it is happening. LOL. 
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 5:21 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36949
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Enki wrote:  I said biased because I am obviously "biasing" myself by taking different points, because I think that Avatar will hold its strong Box Office during the winter even better than Titanic did I have to give you that the drop after Monday is going to be noticeable. It must be. Otherwise I'd be predicting over 1.2 billion domestic We'll know for sure by MLK Excuse me but how is it biased? I was using Shack's own criteria, not mine...[/quote] I guess he was being biased himself to make Avatar a success[/quote] You guessed right. I am biased to make Avatar a success... and I am damn good at it because it is happening. LOL.  [/quote] I am with you in this 
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 5:27 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37162 Location: The Graveyard
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Did you guys join by searching for Avatar on Google? Or are you from BOM or another movie site?
Edit: 16,000, woot.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 5:30 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36949
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Corpse wrote: Did you guys join by searching for Avatar on Google? Or are you from BOM or another movie site?
Edit: 16,000, woot. 16,000 woot for what??? I didn't join searching for Avatar I just happened to be tracking WOKJ for quite sometime now but Avatar made me tempt and I joined just a couple of days back 
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 5:59 am |
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Dale Cooper
Newbie
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 5:57 am Posts: 3
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
I think Avatar will end up with about 63m this weekend and a nice 550m total. Corpse wrote: Did you guys join by searching for Avatar on Google? Or are you from BOM or another movie site? I'm a BOM'er.
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 5:59 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37162 Location: The Graveyard
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
soagg wrote: Corpse wrote: Did you guys join by searching for Avatar on Google? Or are you from BOM or another movie site?
Edit: 16,000, woot. 16,000 woot for what??? I didn't join searching for Avatar I just happened to be tracking WOKJ for quite sometime now but Avatar made me tempt and I joined just a couple of days back  Cool. WOKJ does have several guests (usually just as many members on), so we lost one of those regular guests and picked up a regular member it seems. I asked because when a big movie opens, new members tend to join, but I don't recall so many joining before Avatar opened. (16,000 = post count) Edit: Another new member. Neato.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:05 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36949
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Corpse wrote: Cool. WOKJ does have several guests (usually just as many members on), so we lost one of those regular guests and picked up a regular member it seems. I asked because when a big movie opens, new members tend to join, but I don't recall so many joining before Avatar opened. (16,000 = post count) Edit: Another new member. Neato. Well for me this was initially only for checking up the numbers and how the films are faring that used to be very occasionally on weekdays. But know after I have joined this seems to be fun and I am loving every minute of it. Getting to know others making friends and ofcourse talking about a common hobby movies makes it even better than Avatar's visual experience 
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:27 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
After the first week, Avatar led Titanic by $85 mil. After the second week, Avatar led Titanic by $160 mil. After the third weekend, Avatar will lead Titanic by $192 mil. It shouldn't fall behind in the dailies until after the fourth weekend. By then it should be over $210 mil ahead which would put it over $400 mil, easy.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 1:50 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32635 Location: the last free city
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Woah!  The big ass boat is going down!
_________________ Is it 2028 yet?
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 2:04 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Chip Munkington wrote: After the first week, Avatar led Titanic by $85 mil. After the second week, Avatar led Titanic by $160 mil. After the third weekend, Avatar will lead Titanic by $192 mil. It shouldn't fall behind in the dailies until after the fourth weekend. By then it should be over $210 mil ahead which would put it over $400 mil, easy. 
_________________The Force Awakens
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 2:18 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36949
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Chip Munkington wrote: After the first week, Avatar led Titanic by $85 mil. After the second week, Avatar led Titanic by $160 mil. After the third weekend, Avatar will lead Titanic by $192 mil. It shouldn't fall behind in the dailies until after the fourth weekend. By then it should be over $210 mil ahead which would put it over $400 mil, easy. Yes that indeed is impressive but I still would love to see the drops this Monday to decide. I guess I can than be 100% confident about Avatar's Legs. Do remember that I have predicted 602M but then I would love to have this film make more money and make it another benchmark like Titanic. Also considering a decade has passed it would be great to have this movie pass 700-800M domestic
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 2:50 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6788
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
lots of 3d sellouts. i see avatar staying flat today. put me down for 25m saturday.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:12 pm |
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Enki
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 2:20 pm Posts: 88 Location: Chicago
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
soagg wrote: Corpse wrote: Cool. WOKJ does have several guests (usually just as many members on), so we lost one of those regular guests and picked up a regular member it seems. I asked because when a big movie opens, new members tend to join, but I don't recall so many joining before Avatar opened. (16,000 = post count) Edit: Another new member. Neato. Well for me this was initially only for checking up the numbers and how the films are faring that used to be very occasionally on weekdays. But know after I have joined this seems to be fun and I am loving every minute of it. Getting to know others making friends and ofcourse talking about a common hobby movies makes it even better than Avatar's visual experience  Same here. Among all the other sites that I was checking about Avatar predictions, this thread in WOKJ seemed to have the nicest people. I confess that I've been following the posts before joining for a while, enough to see that people here have respect for each other. You know how much hate is out there. But here I saw posts of different opinions being respectful and not insulting. I bet there are many readers like me thinking about joining as I did.
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:15 pm |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm Posts: 13057 Location: Augsburg (2,040 years young)
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
That's the main reason why I left the BOM forum and joined here a couple of years ago...
Anyway, my Saturday prediction: $25,425,000
_________________ Nothing Compares 2 U
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:20 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32635 Location: the last free city
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
My Saturday prediction $27.4m  Yes it'll increase
_________________ Is it 2028 yet?
Last edited by Rev on Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:28 pm |
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Mesjarch
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 5:41 am Posts: 2388 Location: Poland
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
BOM's friday numbers thread is a festival of stupidity.
I'll say a tiny drop to 24M for Avatar.
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:29 pm |
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jmovies
Let's Call It A Bromance
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:22 pm Posts: 12333
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
$25.08M Saturday
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:29 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Saturday- $25.7 mil
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:31 pm |
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Captain_cold
Newbie
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 7:10 pm Posts: 6
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Deadline just upped the Friday estimate to 25 mil.
BOM still no numbers yet, But it looks like a record 3rd weekend is a no-brainer at this point.
I found this site through google when I saw Avatar's first Monday box office and did a search for it. I'm rooting for this movie so it's cool to find like-minded folks to discuss it with.
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:39 pm |
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Enki
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 2:20 pm Posts: 88 Location: Chicago
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
I predict an amazing $29.6 million all-time high for Saturday. It'll beat last Saturday's record of $28.3 by 5%. According to deadline.com, after 13 days last Wednesday Avatar was $268.9 million domestic and $794.1 million WW. Factoring in that Avatar was finally released in China, Argentina, and Uruguay (source BOM), I predict that today Saturday, after 16 days in the theaters, Avatar will cross the $1billion mark and pass TDK to become the 4th largest WW Box Office ever, leaving behind all doubts of passing TDK or not!!! And it hasn't opened in Italy yet http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/avatar-to-cross-800m-worldwide-today-leads-total-500m-final-week-of-2009/
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Last edited by Enki on Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:48 pm |
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