If it clicks with audiences, $130 mil total for Salt.

If not, it's in trouble.

Agreed. I too prefer female-driven action flicks.

Doesn't this indicate an OW of over $50 million? Or is my tired brain just reading this all wrong?

I don't see that as a possibility. I would say upper 30s is its limit.

I agree, but the tracking there seems to indicate something significantly higher.

jeffrey wells(hollywood elsewhere) is a tool for sony. He has been trying to bring down inception while hyping salt. Already he was proved way wrong with inception. This weekend will confirm his tracking for salt is also way off. I just dont see the hype. it will make early 30's max. inception will affect it badly bcos of incredible WOM.

Derby predictions

1. Inception - $41.6m (-34%)
2. Salt - $33.5m (NEW)
3. Despicable Me – $23.2m (-29%)
4. The Sorcerer's Apprentice - $9.5m (-46%)
5. Toy Story 3 - $7.8m (-35%)
6. Ramona and Beezus - $7.6m (NEW)
7. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - $6.2m (-54%)
8. Grown Ups - $5.9m (-41%)
9. The Last Airbender - $3.9m (-49%)
10. Predators - $2.7m (-61%)

Tracking sometimes overcorrects when they miss a film the week before, especially when it targets the same demo. MTC was 30% too low on Inception, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them 15% too high on Salt this week.

The lower interest in the <25 males is what will prevent the breakout, plus Inception stealing away potential older audience. If it hits 40 I'd say it would be quite a surprise. The unaided is pretty good but not compared to the 1st choice - similar numbers to what Knocked Up had.

So an OW in the lower $30m range seems most likely (I went with $33.5m). Thanks for setting me straight.

My predictions:

1. Inception - $39.5 million (-37%)
2. Salt - $32 million (NEW)
3. Despicable Me - $23.4 million (-29%)
4. The Sorcerer's Apprentice - $9.7 million (-45%)
5. Toy Story 3 - $8.2 million (-32%)
6. Eclipse - $6.7 million (-50%)
7. Grown Ups - $6.5 million (-34%)
8. Ramona and Beezus - $4.5 million (NEW)
9. The Last Airbender - $4 million (-48%)
10. Predators - $2.4 million (-66%)

Decided to go risky on Predators and Ramona & Beezus. Predators doesn't look to have much of a Friday increase at all, with new Salt competition and 30% loss of its theaters.

Ramona & Beezus is a very tough call. If it was Disney, I could see it going $7+ million, as it would have constant exposure on the Disney channel with the right type of audience. Fans of the book don't seem to like all the emphasis on Selena Gomez, as the little kid, Ramona, is the main character in the books. My best comparison was Nancy Drew, which opened to $6.8 million with no family competition at all. I think Ramona is much less appealing to girls, and hopefully I'm right.

Your logic makes sense, but one thing I considered is that Children's Book Adaptations opening in 2600+ theaters almost never have a PTA below $2,500. Inkheart had a PTA of $2,862, Nancy Drew was $2,615, Water Horse was $3,313, and Nim's Island was $3,254. The notable exception here is Hoot and its paltry $1,116 PTA, and it's certainly possible Ramona and Beezus could perform this poorly. I see the film coming managing a $2,700 PTA based on Selena Gomez and the niche` demo of young girls (and their moms), but a bomb is far more likely than a breakout.

It's a definite gutsy play, but no pain, no gain, right?

Right.

Then again, Inkheart, Water Horse, and Nim's Island looked like more of a fantasy which gained bigger appeal to families and boys. Either way, it's got a big range %-wise this weekend.

Nancy Drew's tracking:
RS - $16 million
MTC - $10 million

Our Predictions;

1. Inception: 40.7M (-35%)
2. Salt: 36.4
3. Despicable Me: 22.2 (-32%)
4. The Sorcerer's Apprentice: 9.2 (-48%)
5. Toy Story 3: 8.5 (-29%)
6. Eclipse: 7.3 (-46%)
7. Grown Ups: 6.8 (-31%)
8. Ramona and Beezus: 6.6
9. The Last Airbender: 4.1 (-47%)
10. Predators: 2.7 (-62%)

For the first time after many months Corpse and I were in disagreement about the openers. He wanted to go kinda high on both (high 30's and 7+ respectively) while I liked lower #'s (low 30's and sub-6). We picked a sort of compromise on both, let's see who was right :p
Not feeling like going too high on Inception, especially after TS3.

BJs Predictions:

1. Inception: 47.0m (-25%)
2. Salt: 42.0m
3. Despicable Me: 21.5m (-34%)
4. The Sorcerer's Apprentice: 9.7m (-44%)
5. Ramona and Beezus: 8.0m
6. Toy Story 3: 7.6m (-36%)
7. Grown Ups: 6.8m (-31%)
8. Eclipse: 6.8m (-49%)
9. The Last Airbender: 4.0m (-48%)
10. Predators: 2.4 (-65%)

wanted to low a bit lower on both openers but forgot to change em in time.

Look like I have one of the highest Predators predictions around. I was using Hellboy II as comparison, and even taking the theater drop into account, my calculation didn't yield a 60% drop.

This looks to be a week where holdovers should recover after some abnormal Friday increases in the past several weeks.

I used the same comparison and predicted $3.2m. Hope it recovers some from last weekend, but it could just as easily continue its disintegration.

I probably went too high on TSA, but I figured the Wed. opening last weekend would soften its second weekend drop.

TSA is a hard one to pin. I don't see a Friday increase as high as last week's, but Thursday hold should be better, so I went with a drop somewhat better than the Wed-to-Wed one.

My predictions.

1. Inception: 37.1m (-41%)
2. Salt: 30.0m
3. Despicable Me: 22.0m (-33%)
4. The Sorcerer's Apprentice: 8.4m (-52%)
5. Toy Story 3: 7.8m (-35%)
6. Grown Ups: 6.3m (-35%)
7. Eclipse: 6.3m (-53%)
8. Ramona and Beezus: 6.0m
9. The Last Airbender: 3.5m (-55%)
10. Predators: 2.5m (-64%)

Salt did only 40% of the business on midnights as Inception did. I don't see a 10k pta for this at all cause aside from Jolie, it doesn't add anything to the table. Ramona and Beezus is a tough call. It is an adaption of a kids book, but the marketing is light and the title is weak. Despite the Gomez fanbase, I only see a low 2k pta for this. Inception may do better than I am prediction, but the Friday to Friday drop is questionable, though it will have a bigger IM. Despicable adds theaters, which means a lower drop than last time. Sorcerer has mediocre WOM, leading to a drop of more than half. Toy Story 3 will stablize this time. Eclipse has some direct competition to some degree, so another half decline is in store. Grown Ups will hang in there for another week. Airbender will lose theaters and another big drop is in store. Predators will suffer once again. sooo...

Salt - 23 mil
Inception - 50 mil

Is that what you want to happen, or what you think is going to happen?

Female action star movies always do crappy. Straight forward, generic looking action blockbusters have bombed basically every time the last couple years. Look at A-Team and Knight and Day recently. Salt looks like it'll do the same as A-Team to me.

Plus I'm pretty sure 75% of females hate Angelina Jolie. And a chick being hot has never been enough to draw as a lead for the male audience, regardless of the perception of male shallowness. I think that's one of the reasons "hot female action star" movies don't do well. They're targeted at males, but males don't buy into it like you'd think. So it doesn't do well with either sex.

As for Inception, it has epic WOM and probably opened 20-30 mil lower than a film of its high-profile release normally does because of it being an original film, a sci-fi, and people not knowing what it's really about yet. I also think this will get as many "Went on the 1st weekend, repeat viewing on the 2nd weekend" viewings as basically any movie has. 50 mil for a 2nd weekend for one of the biggest movies of the year, isn't that abnormal. Iron Man 2's 2nd weekend was 52 mil for example. Toy Story 3 made 59 mil its 2nd weekend. Alice made 63 its 2nd weekend. It just looks crazier if the first weekend was 62.

I remember when people thought Jennifer's Body would do well because Megan Fox was in it. If the guys were going to see some eye candy, this would have been the film for that. I personally don't get the big deal about Jolie, and even the guys I know who find her "hot", etc., wouldn't pay just to see her. Heck, that's what the Internet is for!