I'm still in. I think it can do 250M+, possibly close to 300M.

I never thought this would be mega-huge, Smith or no Smith. And now that the bad buzz is rolling in, I'm sure of it.

$180 million max.

So anyway, the point of the Will Smith July movies post ended up being to support this club. I just didn't realize it when I started it. Whatever.

Good call for being back in December. Hancock had damn well better beat MIBII. That movie sucked. Of course, Hancock had damn well better be better than MIBII. I am confident that it will be.

What about a members update?

As long as it clears $115 million by Sunday, this total is definitely happening. The word of mouth is actually good. The crowd I saw it with really liked it, while the Yahoo user grade currently stands at a B+.

I think it could the same 5-day multiplier as Superman Returns, a film with arguably more of a rush factor and possibly weaker WOM, so I'm being very conservative there.

if it did, a 100m 5-day would mean a 236m total, and a 120m 5-day would mean a $283m total. So I'm thinking the $270-290m range at this point, since its WOM actually seems as solid as, say, I Am Legend's, even if its reviews are notably weaker.

Superman survived on IMAX. Its multiplier would not have been as great.

fine, even if we lower it a bit, the only way it'd fall under 225m would be if it opened to 100m or lower over the 5-day, and while some may still believe that it's happening, I really don't think that after having almost 80% of TRF's opening sneaks without any marketing of said sneaks, it'll do only 2/3 of TRF's 6-day gross (which was like $145-150m I think).

Hm, I'm out. Don't see more than $210-215 million at this point, likely a bit less.

I actually can't believe I didn't join this club, but I guess I'll regret it less now. It still has a shot, but it's not as certain as it used to be.

MTC reports a 29% drop for Hancock today...

...but it includes Tuesday sneaks, so the film's basically staying even today, which is good. Notfabio's report was a 25% drop, which would be a 5% increase or so.

Which means we're looking at a 17-18.5m range or so. Solid.

$225m wont happen. More like $205-$215m

It isnt topping 200; I saw this the other day. Nope.

It'll top 225. The WOM is not toxic the way some of you make it out to be.

No one thinks the WOM is toxic except for Excel. But then again he proclaimed Hancock to have to have toxic WOM before the movie came out.

lol, yeah, WOM is not toxic at all. Most people I've talked to like it. $225m is by no means a lock, but it could happen. It just needs to have slightly better legs than T3 and it'll pull it off. T3 had a 2.08 multiplier from its five-day, including previews. Hancock needs about 2.10.

wom is beyond horrible

Based on what, your opinion of the movie?

I think it'll make it

For one thing, it's an original film... no fanbase rushout or sequel drop here.

And after seeing it, I think the WOM will be fine. I actually liked it.

Mmm... I think it'll fall short. $200 million shouldn't be too hard, though not certain, but $225 million is gonna be a bit hard, despite the lack of fanbase rushout or sequel dropoff. Also, even though the reviews have been subpar, Smith almost always delivers to his audience so WOM is definitely far from horrible. The execution of the movie may suck, but I guess Smith could make up for it.

I may not hit 200 million. Though a good start, it will hit hard, but not just because of the WOM, but because of the competition it has, with Hellboy killing a bit on it's sophmore weekend, but the Dark Knight will destroy it.

if Hancock has the same multiplier from its 5-day as Superman Returns -- $235m in total. I think it'll maybe be $5-10m lower because of TDK, but that total makes sense to me. The WOM surrounding these two films seems similar to me (and their grades on places like Yahoo and IMDb are similar).

I'm quite sure that it'll pass $200m, at the least. Not 100% positive, but it's gonna have about $130-135 million going into its second weekend, and unless it drops to like $20m (I'm thinking $27-28m), it'll be all set to exceed $200m.

It will pass $200 million. The end.