Yes, people, please join this club.

The more people that join, the better the rest who didn't join will look once y'all realize that this won't pass $100 million.

JOIN!

Those were exactly my thoughrs, hehe. The more people we can make fun of afterwards!

And just a note...

The fact that Ray Charles' death was in the same year as the movie, just months away, helped it immensly.

Indeed.

Shack had a point with that one, Maverikk. Your failure to answer might be because, well...you had no response.

There is no point with that one. Both Johnny and June died 2 years ago. That's two celebs, not one, and it was only a short time ago that they died. Do you really believe people forgot? If they forgot in 2 years, they forgot 4 months, right? There's no point made if the point is that Johnny Cash didn't recently die, because he did, and so did June.

Forget is definitely not the right one. Hype is more correct, even though "hype" around someone's death sounds morbid, it is pretty much true in this case. It makes sure that also not so die-hard fans would see it.

Do you think there's some type of statute of limitation for when you can hype somebody's death? Johnny Just died. Two years have flew by. They can hype the shit out his him being recently deceased, and most people are going to agree that he just died a short time ago, just like Ray Charles did. That argument is weak. WEAK!

if he had died four months before release date,people would be more inclined to rush out to see it in theaters since it's fresh on their mind. they're not going to completely forget but some will choose to wait for it on dvd. hurting it's chance at $100m..............but still top $80m.

People aren't going to forget that Johnny and June Carter Cash recently died, either. You guys are seriously reaching if you believe that.

Two years make a difference. Obviously there is no way to prove that right now, but it does make a difference. Even to me. I am not sure if I would have gone to see Ray myself if it wasn't for Charles' recent death.

did i say they will forget?
some will just wait for it on dvd since they had 2 years to deal with it.

exactly. WTL will lose those type of audience that helped RAY out.

It doesn't make that much of a difference, and the proof is that it didn't do gangbusters when it opened. You guys are seriously reaching there.

$10,000 PTA isn't good enough? That's a lot more than Walk the Line will get opening weekend.

now who's reaching.

Exactly. A PTA of around $10,000 for a 150 minutes long drama movie featuring an entirely black cast and opening in 2,000 theatres is great!!

Well, we'll see, but put Walk the Line up against Harry Potter, and what do you expect? If Ray was up against it, you'd see how weak that argument of people wanting to rush out to see it because he died a little more recently than Cash did.

Again, you guys have done nothing to build your case, and I've provided link after link. Shack continues to make things up and pass them off as facts, and I continue to shoot every instance down where he does that. It's ok to admit you underestimated things.

NO. YOU. CAN'T.

The marketing for it hasn't started yet. The Oscar push hasn't started yet. Therefore, there is no substantial evidence that it will be pushed more than Ray, and therefore your point does not hold. You as well as I have no idea how the fate of this movie will turn out yet, that it will get as much as Ray. And btw, Ray did get quite a bit, as it needed it to sneak into 5th spot. Obviously you're not the studio head, all this is coming from what you predict is going to happen.




OMG! 3 weeks earlier! Shocking! AHHHHHHHHH!

And Nov. 18 is earlier than alot of the other BP contenders. Usually they sneak in at the end of December, Munich is on December's last week.



More stats! Awesome!

We've already argued about the reviews in the other thread. I didn't look through all your links, as I've already seen most of them. And wow you found a quote I made in one of my first couple hundred posts, regarding its Oscar potential. Nevermind the fact that I should be allowed to have a change of mind any time I want, and that I can only wonder how many threads you searched through to find discriminating material against me, this thread isn't even about the Oscar race. Its about Walk the Line's box-office. And by the way, is hollywoodbitchslap really all that credible of a review source? In fact all of those with the exception of Variety and Poland aren't really regarded critiques at all.

In 'The Contenders', from just slight lazyness from me, I went straight to RT, which doesn't take hollywoodbitchslap.com. I posted their 3 reviews, and a guy from aintitcool(who is fine, hes just as credible as one of us Maverikk.) The thing is that all 5 had agreed on a similar grade. B+, 8/10, joyous, I love Reese Witherspoon. They all did. All of them said the film suffered in some parts but was enjoyable and fun to watch, with great acting. In fact most of the them leant towards Witherspoon the most of all. All of them said it was just good, again you'll attack me for this, but I'm repeating the RTs in so far.



Did you even read what said at all?

Reese Witherspoon's drawing gap over Foxx and Theron will be almost completley cut down, as a) Being #1 frontrunner will cover all the drawing power Reese had before, and will draw in the names that she would draw in anyways. Foxx and Theron had this same power. b) The miniscule advantage Reese still has over them is shortened down in that this is a speciality project, and Reeses strength has been non-existant in movies that aren't chick flick/romantic comedy. c) Jamie Foxx was on fire at this time last year, see below. d) Names, minus Speilburg, don't matter much in Oscar movies. Witherspoon will not have any advantage over Foxx, as explained more below.



The point is that Jamie Foxx was coming off a hit, and due to being the lead hero against Tom Cruise in that movie, he was very much on fire. He was a commodity after Collateral, and he was in a better stride than Reese Witherspoon is right now as her last movie, JLH, disappointed.




Again I don't think you understood what I said up there. I won't deny that in a regular situation she can draw just fine. But if you read the situation I described at the top of the argument, you'd understand that in this movie due to circumstances, she doesn't have any advantage over Foxx's Ray. a)The #1 frontrunner covers her status blah blah, b) Reese hasn't done really anything outside of romcom before, the rest haven't done so well(If you disclose Vanity Fair, how about Pleasentville? And that movie got excellent criticism), c)...whatever you get it.



The main plan on the trailer and plugs so far that is a biopic about Johnny Cash's life. It won't be the goddamn Notebook. Its about him, and tales of his life.



First of all, the 77% argument falls flat. The movie got 77% females because it had no male appeal, the females didn't show in extrodinary numbers(12 mil from them), its just the males didn't show at all. If it had decent 53% females, it would've been in the 20s and not a disappointment from many views. That was a useless statistic to thrown down.

And why do you need statistics to know that girls/women love going to a move and feeling bad for the lead characters/characters? Do you need them for everything? The girls love I Am Sam. Its more than just the young too. Every mother loves feeling bad for a child in a film, because they want to nurse them and so forth. My mom loves those movies, my friend's mom loves those movies, even teenage girls like those movies every once an a while(circa I Am Sam, the most popular teenage girl movie in my class just about).




Once again you misunderstood. I said alot of southeners will support Walk the Line more than the average white man, and alot of blacks will support Ray more than the average white man. The average white man falls directly in the middle. In this day and age the average white man likes black people. Add that to the fact that Ray Charles, like Will Smith, Chris Rock Nelson Mandela, P. Diddy, and Denzel Washington, is a white man's black man. He sang the equivilant of white man's music, and with being an old jazzateer, white people love Ray Charles. Its not like Ray was Barbershop and Ray Charles shot up some 'crackas!'. Maybe he wasn't in his prime, but as an old man he was the whitest black-man possible.




Oh whats that I hear? Bad Boys II grosses 138 million while Wild Wild West only grosses 113? No way!



All you did was post a bunch of stats and links, then blasted me and claimed how much better you were at this. You were the one who never backed anything up, you just sent off insults about how I researched badly. Pfft...

And take a bit of time? I'm sure it didn't take nearly as long as it took you to find all your links, find your dirt on me, and write more overall which eventually led to nothing. You didn't really defend yourself, you just blasted off and how right you were and how I didn't research enough. For the record this post right here took twice as long as the original, and I think it wasted a bit of my time.

You have any idea how many links people could have provided you with to prove that movies like The Island and Stealth will at least pass a $50 million total? And how many facts have been provided that Batman Begins will have a huge opening of at least $100 million in five days? And yet all the facts would have failed in those cases.

Weren't everyone saying, BTW, that Harry Potter won't have anything on Walk the Line due to counter-programming?

...



Whoa there, Maverikk. Let's not jump around, here. So, Harry Potter won't hurt Walk the Line, but it will prevent a $10,000 PTA?

Hmm..

Also, Mav, posting links to a forum of 9000 fans of Johnny Cash doesn't show it'll make $100 million. Posting positive early reviews for Walk the Line doesn't prove it'll make $100 million. Prove your point through box office links, not reviews.

Wow, I have overlooked that!

Willing another bet? Harry Potter will be a $90+ million opener! How can anyone even deny that? Lost a lot of steam? Sure...

Walk the Line's theatre count should be about 2000-2100 right?

2100 x 7000 PTA = 14.7 mil opening.

Will need a 7x multiplier over a boatload of other Oscar contenders. That'll be damn hard.

Ray had what, 3.5? And just realizing it now, when you said WTL had a better release date for Oscar season, you were shooting yourself in the foot. WTL has the better Oscar-set date, but Ray had the better b.o. release date. With late October it could open better, and have its weeks after the opening without as much competition. Walk the Line will be up against a extremely loaded holiday season this year, Jarhead and Munich and Family Stone and Memoirs and Brokeback and King Kong and Narnia, they won't achieve a 7 multiplier over that heap. And thats if they open that high. Nah...

New prediction is almost ready, should have it posted sometime tonight.

So I'm deciding to back off this thread for a while. I spent like 4 hours on it tonight, I should've been doing homework.

Most of my arguments have already been laid down too. So the only thing left is to sit back and let the chips roll...

As a note...

You can't use Rotten Tomatoes for films older than 1998/1999ish, it gets massively unreliable before they started genuinely collecting reviews as they come, because it doesn't really represent a larger slice of the critic community and is more of an archive for certain critics who have taken the time to go back in and populate some of the older films.