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 July 23-25 Predictions 
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
As of 3 p.m. PT, Fandango is reporting that Salt is responsible for a weak 6% of daily sales.

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Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:55 pm
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
jmovies wrote:
If St. Louis is any indication, it looks like Despicable Me is getting a bit more 3D screens this weekend because a lot of theaters here are now either dropping TS3 or matching it with Last Airbender and putting DM on the other 3D screen.


Didn't know you lived close to St.Louis?? Interesting is that for all the $$$ INCEPTION made last weekend, you'd never would've known that given how dead RONNIES 20 CINE Looked.. :-k

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Thu Jul 22, 2010 1:27 am
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Inception is #1 on the Yahoo! Buzz charts with a 90 score (DiCaprio is #15 with a 22 score). Salt is #3 with 42. Ramona and Beezus is, unsurprisingly, not on the charts.

IMDb's charts haven't been updated yet, so Salt and Ramona and Beezus still do not appear on the MOVIEmeter. I expected Salt to turn up by the end of the week, but not R&B. In the meantime, Inception tops the MOVIEmeter while Nolan and five of the film's stars (DiCaprio, Gordon-Levitt, Page, Hardy, Cotillard) are ranked in the STARmeter Top 10 chart (a first, as far as I know).


Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:18 am
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
TrekFan1 wrote:
Inception is #1 on the Yahoo! Buzz charts with a 90 score (DiCaprio is #15 with a 22 score). Salt is #3 with 42. Ramona and Beezus is, unsurprisingly, not on the charts.

IMDb's charts haven't been updated yet, so Salt and Ramona and Beezus still do not appear on the MOVIEmeter. I expected Salt to turn up by the end of the week, but not R&B. In the meantime, Inception tops the MOVIEmeter while Nolan and five of the film's stars (DiCaprio, Gordon-Levitt, Page, Hardy, Cotillard) are ranked in the STARmeter Top 10 chart (a first, as far as I know).


Several things here. First, you'll notice that Jonah Hex is also on the buzz charts (for whatever reason) with a score of 24. Comparatively speaking, that makes Salt's score less impressive. Secondly, the fact that Salt's IMDB ranking is lower than both The A-Team & Knight & Day is troubling. Even Clash of the Titans is ahead of Salt, and that debuted in April. In addition, we have no idea how efficient Yahoo's filtering process is, meaning we have no idea how many searches for "Salt" are actually pertinent to the film. The same thing happened with 'Predators', when the buzz charts showed the Nashville Predators (which were making some big offseason headlines at the time) were listed as a film.

As for Ramona and Beezus, don't expect it to make the Top 25 on the MovieMeter or the buzz charts. Films targeting the tween girl demo almost never register online. I'm not suggesting it will open strong, but the lack of online presence will not preclude it from doing so.

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Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:29 am
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote:
TrekFan1 wrote:
Inception is #1 on the Yahoo! Buzz charts with a 90 score (DiCaprio is #15 with a 22 score). Salt is #3 with 42. Ramona and Beezus is, unsurprisingly, not on the charts.

IMDb's charts haven't been updated yet, so Salt and Ramona and Beezus still do not appear on the MOVIEmeter. I expected Salt to turn up by the end of the week, but not R&B. In the meantime, Inception tops the MOVIEmeter while Nolan and five of the film's stars (DiCaprio, Gordon-Levitt, Page, Hardy, Cotillard) are ranked in the STARmeter Top 10 chart (a first, as far as I know).


Several things here. First, you'll notice that Jonah Hex is also on the buzz charts (for whatever reason) with a score of 24. Comparatively speaking, that makes Salt's score less impressive. Secondly, the fact that Salt's IMDB ranking is lower than both The A-Team & Knight & Day is troubling. Even Clash of the Titans is ahead of Salt, and that debuted in April. In addition, we have no idea how efficient Yahoo's filtering process is, meaning we have no idea how many searches for "Salt" are actually pertinent to the film. The same thing happened with 'Predators', when the buzz charts showed the Nashville Predators (which were making some big offseason headlines at the time) were listed as a film.

As for Ramona and Beezus, don't expect it to make the Top 25 on the MovieMeter or the buzz charts. Films targeting the tween girl demo almost never register online. I'm not suggesting it will open strong, but the lack of online presence will not preclude it from doing so.


nerdgasm

lol sorry. But something about the phrases "Ramona and Beezus," "buzz charts," and "lack of online presence" used together strikes me as hilarious.

I feel like this kind of analysis is far too overly scientific. It ain't that deep.


Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:49 am
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Libs wrote:
I feel like this kind of analysis is far too overly scientific. It ain't that deep.


Perhaps not deep, but historically effective. :thumbsup:

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Thu Jul 22, 2010 10:15 am
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
TrekFan1 wrote:
IMDb's charts haven't been updated yet, so Salt and Ramona and Beezus still do not appear on the MOVIEmeter. I expected Salt to turn up by the end of the week, but not R&B. In the meantime, Inception tops the MOVIEmeter while Nolan and five of the film's stars (DiCaprio, Gordon-Levitt, Page, Hardy, Cotillard) are ranked in the STARmeter Top 10 chart (a first, as far as I know).


Not sure what you mean - as I reported earlier Salt is #17 on the movie meter. Ramona is #80, not that bad for the type of film.

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Thu Jul 22, 2010 10:18 am
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Proud Ryu wrote:
TrekFan1 wrote:
IMDb's charts haven't been updated yet, so Salt and Ramona and Beezus still do not appear on the MOVIEmeter. I expected Salt to turn up by the end of the week, but not R&B. In the meantime, Inception tops the MOVIEmeter while Nolan and five of the film's stars (DiCaprio, Gordon-Levitt, Page, Hardy, Cotillard) are ranked in the STARmeter Top 10 chart (a first, as far as I know).


Not sure what you mean - as I reported earlier Salt is #17 on the movie meter. Ramona is #80, not that bad for the type of film.


Sorry, I meant they weren't in the top 10. I don't have IMDbPro so I can only see what's in the top 10 list.


Thu Jul 22, 2010 10:21 am
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Flixster showed Salt being a very nicely 4 quadrant film, actually skewing slightly male and over 25. Sounds about right. Coming in about where A Team did.

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Thu Jul 22, 2010 10:22 am
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Proud Ryu wrote:
Flixster showed Salt being a very nicely 4 quadrant film, actually skewing slightly male and over 25. Sounds about right. Coming in about where A Team did.

Yupyup. Two weeks before its release, The A-Team had around the same amount of interest as Salt did last week, but it had much less activity. Both movies were skewering older, though A-Team was a bit closer to the under 25 crowd (and more towards the male demo).

In the week of A-Team's release, interest was about the same as the previous week but activity swelled... though that didn't transfer to great box office results. It was also split between the under 25 crowd and the over 25 crowd. Salt will likely maintain the same approximate position and interest as last week but it should have more activity. Activity levels may not be as big as A-Team, though, since it does skew slightly older.


Thu Jul 22, 2010 10:35 am
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
If it's going into 201 theaters this weekend, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT should make about 3 Million, which could be enough to get into the #10 spot.


Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:01 pm
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Mike wrote:
1. INCEPTION - 38.3 MILLION (-39%)
2. SALT - 28.3 MILLION (New)
3. DESPICABLE ME - 20.3 MILLION (-38%)
4. THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE - 10.4 MILLION (-41%)
5. RAMONA & BEEZUS - 10.1 MILLION (New)
6. TOY STORY 3 - 7.6 MILLION (-37%)
7. GROWN UPS - 7.4 MILLION (-25%)
8. TWILIGHT SAGA: ECLIPSE - 7.3 MILLION (-46%)
9. LAST AIRBENDER - 3.9 MILLION (-50%)
10. PREDATORS - 3.3 MILLION (-53%)


Am now going with 39.6 Million for INCEPTION (37% drop). Wouldn't even be surprised to see it hold better than that.


Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:01 pm
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Salt numbers have bumped up sharply over the last couple of days. Unaided awareness, particularly, has risen 10 points to 19 -- a very good number. Aided awareness is 84, definite interest 40, first choice 13 (presumably rising to 17 or 18 by tomorrow or Friday). Older and younger females are almost as gung-ho as 25-plus males. Younger males appear to be the weak link.

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2010/07/ ... te_wak.php

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Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:15 pm
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
SALT should do great. Critics are calling SALT, "The perfect summer movie for those confused by INCEPTION." :P


Thu Jul 22, 2010 8:37 pm
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Boxoffice Forecast: ‘Salt,’ ‘Scott Pilgrim,’ ‘Eat Pray Love,’ ‘Expendables,’ more


By Andrew Wallenstein | July 22nd, 2010 at 5:19 pm | View Comments
Here's the Bullseye boxoffice forecast for 7/23. Click to enlarge the image.

The big question heading into this weekend is just how big "Salt" will open. It bodes well for the Angelina Jolie vehicle that it has inched closer from last week to the dead center of the four quadrants. That said, both Flixster activity and interest in the film are moderate, which could cool off its boxoffice prospects (although the good reviews and Comic-Con coverage may provide additional boost).

For all the buzz on "Inception" after its terrific opening weekend last week, there's little change in chart positioning. Same goes for some of the big releases in the coming weeks, "The Other Guys" and "Dinner for Schmucks," though they could see some lift as media attention increases in the walk-up to their premieres.

Things aren't looking any better in the second week for "The Sorcerer's Apprentice" after a dismal opening, though the chart reflects it's skewing younger with surprisingly intense interest.

Three new films enter the Bullseye this week. "Eat Pray Love" starts on the chart exactly where you'd expect it to, skewing strongly with women over 25 who are at the core of Julia Roberts' fan base.

What's a bit more surprising is "Scott Pilgrim vs. the World," which is squarely in the men-under-25 camp. Yes, its action elements would translate to the small but intense interest in that quadrant, but why isn't the film's romance element and sensitive-guy star Michael Cera getting on the radar of the younger lassies?

No doubt Comic-Con will make "Pilgrim" a higher profile pic, and the same goes for "The Expendables," which finds itself exactly where another film with 1980s roots, "Predators," was last week: straddling the fence between men over and under 25.

For more on the weekend to come, check out Carl DiOrio's boxoffice preview. If you missed last week's chart, here's Bullseye 7/16.

Jay Fernandez will return to the Bullseye next week

Link - http://riskybusiness.hollywoodreporter. ... pendables/


Thu Jul 22, 2010 8:39 pm
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Mike wrote:
SALT should do great. Critics are calling SALT, "The perfect summer movie for those confused by INCEPTION." :P


I wouldn't call its reviews that great, 57% is mediocre at best. I still see Salt doing less than 35 million. The traditional action film just doesn't make money any more.


Thu Jul 22, 2010 8:45 pm
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
I see 26 million for Salt. I'm a huge believer in male shovanism-I think actresses have a real hard time opening to large audiences unless its a very specific type of role, and I don't see this as one of those times.

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Thu Jul 22, 2010 8:56 pm
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
1. Inception (Warner Bros) - $41,000,000 -34.7%
2. Salt (Sony) - $33,500,000 NEW; $9,275 PTA
3. Despicable Me (Universal) - $23,000,000 -29.9%
4. Ramona & Beezus (Fox) - $12,600,000 NEW; $4,634 PTA
5. The Sorcerer's Apprentice (Buena Vista) - $10,000,000 -43.2%
6. Toy Story 3 (Buena Vista) - $8,300,000 -30.8%
7. Grown Ups (Sony) - $6,800,000 -31.4%
8. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (Summit) - $6,500,000 -51.6%
9. The Last Airbender (Paramount) - $3,800,000 -51%
10. Predators (Fox) - $2,600,000 -63%

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Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:17 pm
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Jedi Master Carr wrote:
Mike wrote:
SALT should do great. Critics are calling SALT, "The perfect summer movie for those confused by INCEPTION." :P


I wouldn't call its reviews that great, 57% is mediocre at best. I still see Salt doing less than 35 million. The traditional action film just doesn't make money any more.


I wasn't being serious ;). Though reviews are semi-decent.


Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:18 pm
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Excel wrote:
I see 26 million for Salt. I'm a huge believer in male shovanism-I think actresses have a real hard time opening to large audiences unless its a very specific type of role, and I don't see this as one of those times.


I'd much rather watch an action or horror movie starring females than a bunch of guys though I will of course see The Expendables. That said, history would prove you right.


Last edited by Harry Warden on Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:20 pm
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Excel wrote:
I see 26 million for Salt. I'm a huge believer in male shovanism-I think actresses have a real hard time opening to large audiences unless its a very specific type of role, and I don't see this as one of those times.


I'm going to hope you meant you think chauvinism runs deep in audiences, not that...you BELIEVE in chauvinism. Although both are depressing.

I think this type of thinking is very backwards, though. What's a very "specific type of role"? Because nearly every action film Angelina Jolie has headlined has grossed over $100M domestically, if you're going to usethat logic.


Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:21 pm
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Yeah...THIS is the role where Angelina Jolie brings in the audiences. It's going to do well.


Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:47 pm
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
New bullseye is out.

Look how male Expendables is, and the gap between it and Ramona :lol:

Salt has moved more 4 quadrant - a good sign for it. Interest and activity are about the same.

Somehow that just looks harsh for Cats & Dogs.

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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Libs wrote:
Excel wrote:
I see 26 million for Salt. I'm a huge believer in male shovanism-I think actresses have a real hard time opening to large audiences unless its a very specific type of role, and I don't see this as one of those times.


I'm going to hope you meant you think chauvinism runs deep in audiences, not that...you BELIEVE in chauvinism. Although both are depressing.

I think this type of thinking is very backwards, though. What's a very "specific type of role"? Because nearly every action film Angelina Jolie has headlined has grossed over $100M domestically, if you're going to usethat logic.


Of course I don't agree with it, I think it clearly exists in the general public to a huge degree. It seems like over the past decades, only a handful of actresses have been bankable enough to open films on their own. It was julia Roberts, or last year, Sandra Bullock, in romcoms or family films. Other than, actresses have never been able to open movies consistently on their. Even Jodie Foster in recent years has become a flop machine.

Angelina Jolies been an exception with action. Many actresses at their peak, such as Halle Berry, Jennifer Garner, ect have tried and failed at action movies. Tomb Raider 2 and Charlies Angels 2 were dead on arrival, despite being hyped as event films, which Salt isn't. Angelina Jolie has had several hit movies, but in recent years I'd say its hard to argue she's a real serious draw. Changeling, a Mighty Heart, and others were totally ignored by audiences. Salt is the first time she's tried an original action completely on her own. I think it'll be a decent sized hit, but I think those expecting an opening over 30 and a total over 100 will be disappointed. I see 25/80ish run for it.

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Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:57 pm
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Post Re: July 23-25 Predictions
Magception wrote:
I'm more interested in Salt with Jolie in it than I would have been with most other male stars. It looks so generic that having a female star actually makes it somewhat appealing.


Agree. :yes:

So glad Cruise bailed.


Thu Jul 22, 2010 10:00 pm
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