Do you really want to compare music history with me, Shack? Jerry Lee Lewis is probably the least popular of all the original rock 'n' roll guys, and his career longevity wasn't very long.

Also, you might not want to use Rotten Tomatoes and a handful of reviews to try to prove a movie wasn't panned. Not only was I alive in 1989, but I was 20 when that movie came out, and remember quite well that it was panned by the respected critics. You're actually counting critics that weren't even critics at the time, and acting like they were. Is that really the point you wanted to make? Critics that became critics years after it was released, and who are website critics, didn't pan it? (the few that bothered to review it...) I doubt that was what you intended, but that's how you just tried to make a point. Can you see how invalid that is? I think everyone else can.

You'll also have to post some links about Quaid being robbed and all that. Since you stated that Moulin Rouge was universally loved and that it was a phenom that most people thought should have won the Best Picture (when everybody knows that description fits Fellowship of the Ring), you'll have to provide some links to back that up. You also claimed Johnny Cash faded decades ago. You can't keep making those kinds of statements and expect for links not to be asked for the next time. No offense.

Zack, I'm signing you up, and Shack, keep trying, but I have to tell you, I'm a bit disppointed, so far. I was expecting something a bit stronger, but this is no stronger than how you tried to convince people that Corpse Bride would break September's record.

Ok. Not satisfied with Great Balls of Fire? Lets try another, how about my Tina Turner biopic:

What's Love Got to Do With It?
Total gross: $39,100,956

I was wrong when I said she as in Angela Bassett won, that was a mistake on my part. But she was nominated(2nd highest contender) and did take the Musical/Comedy Golden Globe. Now that was an acclaimed movie, with ok names. Didn't fair so hot did it? And you can not argue that circa 1992/1993 that Johnny Cash, Ray Charles, or Loretta Lynn was as big as Tina Turner at that moment. Hell no. Yet Coal Miner's Daughter and Ray crushed that movie in gross.

In my opinion its: Tina Turner(at the time of her biopic)--------------->Loretta Lynn----->Ray Charles->Jerry Lee Lewis/Johnny Cash(tie).

EDIT-I read the above post now. For the record I never was all in for Corpse Bride breaking the record. I said it had a shot that it would do better than expected, when everyone was guessing 11/12 mils. I was technically right, as when I created my threads 18/19 mil was higher than everyone's guesses almost. In fact my original guess was dead on, if you want to reference the Corpse Bride thread. Same goes with JLH, I even said before it opened theres no way this is breaking the record. Most of my arguing was that Witherspoon was a better draw than what Lecter was claiming in that he was claiming she was under J.Lo, and far down the list. Eventually he got me pretty bad and thats not the point.

And thats not what should be brought up here, you can't use my other arguments to blast these ones. So far most of your points have been very opinionated and in my opinion you could've done alot better as well, as nothing you've said has really pushed me farther into believing this movie can do well. My other long post(deleted now by the way, brother resetted computer) spent details exclaiming exactly why every point you've brought up thus far has been extremely faulty.

Jerry Lee Lewis is not even close to the others. Can you post Tina's resume? I'll bet it doesn't even come close to what Johnny and Loretta accomplished. You can't just say IN MY OPNION, and think that such an opinion is felt across the nation.

It was a film about blacks, and I've covered that. That is one serious piece to the puzzle that you haven't yet realized. Ike and Tina was NOT a love story, that's for sure, so the lead actor, a great performance by Fishburne, wasn't a character that you could root for. It was released in June, something you aren't quite grasping yet. It did have amazing legs, but didn't get any benefit from a big opening. It was also in 1993, when ticket prices were much lower. Ray wouldn't have crushed it if it had the same kind of release and 1993 dollars matched 2004 dollars.

Go for it. I know it's not faulty, and have more than an opinion to back me up, and I'm supremely confident about that, so try to tear it down, and I'll do the same to your comments when you can't.

And by the way Jerry Lee Lewis being notorious all should've helped the film. While he is not 'liked' as much, the fact that he had all these controversial details of these years easily makes him prone to a more interesting and more filled biopic. The general audience on the seek for being entertained had every right to want to see this movie. On the other hand what did Johnny Cash do? Go to jail, propose to June in toronto, and wore black?

In my mind Jerry Lee Lewis is just as well-known as Johnny Cash. Walk the Line will gross more due to a better release date, better Oscar hopes, better stars and production quality. But that has nothing to do with Johnny Cash, who has nothing on Jerry Lee Lewis.

I'm glad you asked.

Pay attention this time...

* He has recorded more than 1,500 songs and they can be found on about 500 albums, counting only American and European releases.

* More of his albums (45) remain in print today than most artists ever make.

* He is the youngest person ever chosen for the Country Music Hall of Fame and the only performer ever selected for the Country and Rock Music Hall of Fame, until 1998, when Elvis Presley was inducted into the Country Music Hall of Fame.

* He has placed 48 singles on the Billboard Hot 100 Pop charts, about the same number as the Rolling Stones and the Beach Boys.

* He has tallied more Pop hit singles than Barbra Streisand, Michael Jackson (including his Jackson 5 hits), the Four Seasons, David Bowie, the Supremes, Elton John, Billy Joel, Kenny Rogers, the combined totals of Art Garfunkel, Paul Simon and Simon & Garfunkel, Martin Gaye, B.B. King, Roy Orbison, Kool & the Gang, Linda Ronstadt. Diana Ross, the combined total of all of the Osmond Family, Jerry Lee Lewis and the combined total of Lionel Richie and the Commodores.

* He has won 11 Grammys, the most recent include the 1999 Lifetime Achievement Award and the 2002 shared Grammy for Best Country Album. Two of his Grammys came for writing liner notes, for his At Folsom Prison album and Bob Dylan's Nashville Skyline record.

* Cash's 1987 Grammy came through his participation in The Class Of '55 recordings with the late Roy Orbison, Carl Perkins and Jerry Lee Lewis. The project represented a rebirth of "The Million Dollar Quartet" recordings featuring Cash, Perkins, Lewis and the late Elvis Presley and, interestingly enough, it predated Orbison's participation in The Traveling Wilburys.

* He has had chart success as a solo artist, as part of a duet, as the leader of a trio, and as a part of the award-winning Highwayman quartet.

* Long before the term "concept album" was coined, Cash created such thematically unified albums Ride This Train (1960), Blood, Sweat, & Tears (1963), Bitter Tears (1964). and Johnny Cash Sings Ballads Of The True West (1965).

* People forget just how hot Johnny Cash was, when his sales career was at its zenith. In the fall of 1969, Johnny Cash was the hottest act in the world, selling around 250,000 albums per month of his Folsom Prison and San Quentin albums. At that time, he was even outselling the Beatles.

* As Rich Kinezie observed in Country Music magazine 10 years ago, Cash "strengthened the bonds between folk and country music so that both sides saw their similarities as well as their differences. He helped to liberalize Nashville so that it could accept the unconventional and the controversial and he did as much as anyone to make the 'outlaw' phenomenon possible."

* As host of The Johnny Cash Show on ABC-TV (1969-1971), he served up 60 hours of prime-time TV, which featured performers like Bob Dylan, Stevie Wonder, Linda Ronstadt, Ray Charles, Neil Young, James Taylor, Neil Diamond, Joni Mitchell, Gordon Lightfoot, Kenny Rogers, Roy Orbison, Hank Williams Jr., Dennis Hopper, Judy Collins, Charley Pride, the Oak Ridge Boys, Patti Page and Merle Haggard, most rarely seen on TV back then.

* His 1975 autobiography Man in Black has so far sold around 1.5 million copies, about 300,000 in hardcover.

* He is one of the very few people in the history of music to sell more than 50 million records.

* He has placed at least two singles on the Country charts for 38 consecutive years, including an amazing 25 hits between 1958 and 1960.

* He produced and co-scripted a movie about the life of Jesus, Gospel Road, and filmed it in Israel. The film was distributed by Billy Graham's organization and is still in great demand today.

* He has starred in four additional theatrical films including one of the last great westerns, A Gunfight, with Kirk Douglas. In addition, he has been a featured star in seven TV movies including The Pride Of Jessee Hallam, a hard-hitting, poignant story of one man's struggle against illiteracy. The show has proven to be a valuable tool in the battle against illiteracy.

* He has posted over 130 hits on the Billboard Country singles chart, more than anyone in history, except George Jones. (Discounting duets by both men, Cash's total exceeds Jones.)

* He has won over two dozen songwriting awards from BMI; two of his songs, Folsom Prison Blues and I Walk The Line have earned million-performance citations from BMI.

* Over a hundred acts have recorded Cash's I Walk The Line.

* He has toured extensively for 38 years on a scope far beyond the normal tour bus routine of U.S. honky-tonks, state fairs, and showrooms. Hundreds of thousands of fans in Japan, Australia, New Zealand and throughout Europe have seen The Johnny Cash Show. He has toured in Vietnam and throughout the U.S. State Department, he has appeared in concert in many Eastern European nations such as Hungary, Poland and Czechoslovakia.

* He has fathered four daughters (Rosanne, Tara, Cindy and Kathy) and a son (John Carter), all of whom have performed with him at one time or another. In addition, Rosanne has become one of our country music's top singer-songwriters.

* Cash's influence on younger musicians in the Rock/Pop field is as strong a it was in the 60's: A group of European musicians last year released Til Things Get Brighter, an album 100% composed of Johnny Cash covers by such acts as Michelle Shocked and Marc Almond. In addition, fresh recordings of Cash classics like I Still Miss Someone and Big River have recently been made by Stevie Nicks and the Beat Farmers. He is a featured guest soloist on U-2's album ZOOROPA.

* His last three albums earned him Grammy Awards: American Recordings Best Folk Album 1994 Unchained - Best Country Album 1998 and Solitary Man - Best Country Male Vocal Performance 2000. Cash received the most coveted of Grammy award for Lifetime Achievement in 1999.

* Cash was honored with a Kennedy Center Award in December of 1996.

* Despite country music stations refusing to play his newer music, Cash and American Recordings were honored with Country Music Television-Europe's #7 Video of the Year for Rusty Cage, and Playboy Magazine honored Cash with the 1998 Music Poll Winner "Hall of Fame" Award.

As I said in another post, you guys have to realize that there is a world that exists outside your mind. If you can show me where Jerry Lee Lewis or any of the acts that you mentioned has a website forum with 9126 members, like Johnny Cash does, do it, otherwise, your opinion is very weak, and I'm backing mine up quite well. Do you see the difference in the way you are presenting your case and the way I am? I'm providing links to support everything I'm saying, you have opinions that are being proved wrong by links.

BTW, how about that Corpse Bride topping last weekend, Mav? ; )

Mav: Lecter, Corpse Bride will be #1
Me: Mav, it won't!
Mav: It will

Are those the words of a beaten man that I'm reading?

Nono, read the edited dialogue above. It is actually real, I saved it just incase : )

Do I read an excuse of a beaten man? I only bring it up to say that when you say something is a no-brainer, it doesn't always mean you are right. The same goes for everyone. Very few things are ever no-brainers.

Oh, in that case, can you tell me why you can't find your name on this list?

http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 0a15576801

For the same reason why I predicted less than $60 million for F4's opening weekend and yet was on your list. I did not feel it (up until the opening night, I suppose). I predicted $142 million, I think. It was not assured, just like F4's $60 million opening weekend wasn't assured either, but in that case I had that gut feeling (which I thankfully went against in the games and predicted around $57-58 million). In neither of both cases were those things no-brainers. Every single time you make a thread on a prediction, you call them no-brainers. But they aren't. Same for Monster in Law which opened close to your prediction, but did not match it, I think. These things are not no-brainers. No-brainer = lock. Were all those locks? Obviously not. Neither is Walk the Line for $100 million.

No brainer=lock. Very good. It was assured. That's the difference between us, I can tell, you are unsure. That's why I can predict with confidence. Anytime I've started a thread like this, I've had confidence, which is why I didn't start any threads about Corspe Bride. That's why if I miss, I barely miss.

Let's be honest for a second. If I hadn't predicted 25 million for Monster-in-Law and hadn't pushed and pushed that, and if I hadn't pushed and pushed 60 million for Fantastic Four, you, living in the world of prediction consensus tweaking, would not have been nearly as close. If I would have pushed 40 million for Fantastic Four, you wouldn't have "thankfully" predicted 57-58 million, because you weren't in the ballpark, and could easily have been pulled down. That's the difference in tweaking and waiting on the consensus, and making an actual prediction that's your own. If I wouldn't have been pushing for Sith at 150, and presented reason after reason for it, you probably would have been playing it safe, and "predicted" a Matrix: Reloaded level prediction. It's the curse of relying on consensus tweaking.

Do you want proof of when you make predictions on your own? I'll pull up every single thread you've started, and we'll see if you've come anywhere near as close as I've come when I do it, and then we can check on how you tweaked as soon as the consensus came in.

Why Mavs points are negatory-

The Oscar push-This one is easy. Theres no way you can prove Walk the Line will get more Oscar push than Ray. Just none. Obviously the justification is that it is too early for that to be an assured factor. Theres no saying the movie will get better reviews/cred than Ray. You are just hoping and guessing that it gets more, at the moment there is no real source for this, rather than what you Maverikk are predicting. Really if you want us to convert to your side, you have to come up with something a little more credible than your gut saying it'll get enough Oscar marketing/cred to push it over the edge.

The Female Demographic/Reese's name-This has been mentioned before, and covered, but I will repeat. In a normal situation yes Reese would help the movie by who she is. Not here. Alot of the crowd will go to the movie to see Reese Witherspoon, but it will be because of the performance, rather than who she is. When you're the #1 frontrunner like she is, you automatically have power in that you will draw crowds in to see the best performance of the year. Because Reese Witherspoon will be getting this advantage, the drawing power she would normally have is already covered by the drawing power of being the #1 actress for the year. Therefore her drawing power with her name is no more than what a normal frontrunner would get. For example Monster was a small nothing flick and made 34 million/59 WW off of Charlize Theron being the one to beat that year. Reese shouldn't have any more advantage. And to add with it: Last year, Foxx had just come off a huge 100 mil+ hit in Collateral, and his Ray performance was getting more acclaim than Reese is right now arguably. If Reese does draw the little she has left in her name, it'll just be enough to equal Foxx or just surpass it by like 0.01%. In any case thats as much as she'll do. This isn't Reese's ballpark for drawing crowds remember. Her last speciality movie that ventured outside the borders for drama was Vanity Fair, and look how that turned out. Also disregarded this, its not like the names will matter much anyways. That'll all come in the critical acclaim and how well it can have legs, and hold on for enough weeks. Also to add one more point: The subject matter itself in this movie doesn't have much female appeal, sorry. In the trailer: Jail, ultimate female turn-off. Hillbillys. Now you argue that yes the southern females will like this, but for everyone else they won't. Country music. Since when is country music hot gossip? That adds to Reese Witherspoon as a country darling not really having talk in their group circles. A man wearing black. He certainly isn't wearing pink. And females aren't that familar with Johnny Cash, at least not nearly as much as males are.

The Love Story-
This is mostly tacked on to the female appeal argument above. For every scene in the trailer that show Joaquin and Reese talking, theres another bad-toothed man or country bar or jail or recording studio. And to counter, Ray had emotional moments in it as well that equal up to the Johnny-June chemistry. Foxx flirting with the back-up singers, Foxx receiving hugs and help from his parents/grandma/female friends. And even better: Girls love a story about disabled kids, whether it be their blind/deaf, or retarded. This point didn't add much, but its there. Ray was also a lot more of a sad and emotional movie, and in my mind the lead with his problem appealed more to females than Phoenix will. Older women love that stuff. In fact I'd go so far to say that Ray's marketing was almost more appealing to women than Walk the Line's has been thus far(trailer, poster, plugs in magazines). Black man struggling through life, going through hardships and having mother and girlfriends to back him up, or...White man coming from jail, dressed in black, surrounded by hillbillies singing country music, with occasional shots of flirting with country hillbilly Witherspoon? Ah...I don't think Reese can affect it that much.

Racism/Its a white movie, it'll outgross the black movie-
As much as I congratulate you for bringing this topic up out of nowhere, I don't think the race issues will effect on either movie. I say either movie, because Walk the Line will get just as much criticism and racism if you will for being southern, from ignorant people. Now you can argue that the southerners will love Walk the Line, but then again the black community also showed its stripes for Ray. In general areas black people are almost more beloved than your average white man. One of the top actors, if not the top actor, is black. Will Smith. Halle Berry is 'the most beautiful woman', and shes black. I also doubt the race issue will had any effect on the gross as 75 mil was way more than what Ray could've hoped for. And if it did, as I mentioned above it, it did as much as your predjudice white man hates hicks.

Huahh. That was almost as long as it was gonna be in the first place, it took alot shorter though as I knew what I was writing down. Not as much time and precision taken on every sentence, a bit more rushed typing dare I say, but I still I think I covered what I wanted to say quite well.

All your arguments lead nowhere, and this is what I've had in my head while reading through them all.

EDIT-

Johnny Cash/Jerry Lee Lewis's name-
Contrary to what you say, and all the statistics you can bring up Mav, I simply don't believe in any way that Johnny Cash is more well-known than Ray Charles, or Jerry Lee Lewis for that matter. The best you're throwing at us is that he was more successful. He sold more records, he won more awards, he had more top singles, he has alot of members on his fanbase, he had lots of friends, he had his own tv show. Big whoop. That doesn't mean hes more well-known. The Sex Pistols only recorded one album, and were generally trashed by all critics and radio stations to be absolutely terrible. Their partners in crime were the Ramones, who were permanently drugged and couldn't play their instruments. Did these bands win any awards? Did these bands put up huge numbers? Did these bands become huge on radio and appear everywhere? No. Compare them to The Band, who did the opposite. Won lots of awards, put up big numbers, appeared everywhere. But in terms of relativity and being influential, The Sex Pistols/Ramones killed them. Ask 50 teenagers on the street, Sex Pistols and Ramones own their souls while the Band is a drifted off name who when mentioned might get more of slightly insulting remarks of 'P. Diddy? That show is so 2004.' Along with Clash they started punk, and jumpstarted a whole new wave of creativity. It is in this way that I think Ray Charles and Jerry Lee Lewis kill Johnny Cash. They didn't win as much awards, didn't sell as much records, didn't have their own tv shows, but they're more well known for what they did, by taking the world by storm. They're much more icons, and more well known still in my mind.

You can't say "Well Johnny Cash has 9392 members on his site! He has 48 top ten singles! Hes in the country hall of fame! He had his own tv show! He sold 332392 records! Hes way more well known and recognized than Ray Charles!"

Nah. He died, and had a hit with dieing. Before that myself included had heard the name mentioned a few times, but didn't really know who he was. I'm sure theres plenty that still feel distant from him.

Unsure? I doubt that. The thing is...who would have predicted March of Penguins to come close to $100 million? If that is possible, almost everything is. But I am definitely more than 90% sure on that one.

BTW, I have predicted more than $40 million for F4 all the way, long before your prediction. And in the end I predicted $20 million for Monster in Law, by the way, DESPITE your pushing. I go close to the consensus for the optimal outcome in a game. My real predictions, I won't use in games, though. That is simly not smart. I post them in threads. I predicted Flightplan to be at over $27 million last weekend, definitely. Yet, in my games predictions, I went between $25-26.5 million.

The one time for instance when I stayed out of the consensus with my Lord of War prediction, didn't exactly play out well, did it? Never mix up normal predictions with games. But in any case, game or not, I would have never predicted $25+ million for MiL for instance.

I edited in the 5th argument concerning Johnny Cash and how he compares to Ray Charles, Jerry Lee Lewis.

I hit the quote immediately, and am reading as I respond, but I saw no links, and you will be completely discredited if I see one more case of you making things up that can easily be proven worng, just so you know, and I will only respond from that point by saying "Post a link or it's just more of your bullshit".



I most certainly can prove that it'll get a bigger Oscar push. It's got a better release date, and the reason it does is...you guessed it...(no, you obviously didn't)...so it would get more of an Oscar push.

How about every critic that's seen it? I've posted their comments already, but you are just seeing what you want to see, but I'm going to post a few again, and you really need to start PAYING ATTENTION! (I'll bold it so you can see it)


http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050919/COMMENTARY/50919001

"This is a great opportunity for people to contribute funds that will go directly to the heart of this massive relief effort -- and to be among the first to see a film that doesn't open until November 18th, but is already garnering Oscar buzz," says Roeper.

Reviews are strong:


http://www.lff.org.uk/films_details.php?FilmID=892

http://www.twitchfilm.net/archives/003279.html

http://www.hollywoodbitchslap.com/revie ... viewer=198

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/re ... 1001137060

http://www.variety.com/review/VE1117928 ... egoryId=31

http://www.moviecitynews.com/reviews/walktheline.html

http://www.empiremovies.com/reviews/rev ... heline.htm

http://www.moviecitynews.com/reviews/wa ... pride.html

http://movie-reviews.colossus.net/tiff2 ... 005_7.html

Shack wrote:

And by the way I think Joaquin has his nom, and Reese Witherspoon has hers too. She looks impressive.

You know, it can do Best Picture. To me it looks more elevated than Ray, might be the best movie period of 2005. Its got alot of spirit. It could even sweep the big 4, Actor Actress Director and Picture. James Mangold for Director is the weak link. He hasn't *really* proved himself all that much. As good as I thought Girl Interuppted was, his direction was criticized. But I think he'll get a nom.

Shack wrote:

I'm thinking Reese might be a higher regarded frontrunner than him. The reviews are more tilted to her, though they praise both. Oscars galore!

oops...found at the following link.

http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 50fa637c2a


http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbc ... 2/50903001

"Walk the Line" stars Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon as the man in black and his wife, June Carter Cash. A review can await the film's opening, but let me observe that at one point, during a musical number, I closed my eyes to focus entirely on the music. As someone who knows Cash's music virtually by heart, I was convinced the movie was dubbed: That was Johnny Cash's real voice, just as "Ray" used the original Ray Charles recordings.

At the end of the movie, watching the credits, I was thunderstruck to discover that Phoenix had performed all of Cash's vocals. It was more than just a good impersonation; he nailed them. Witherspoon does her own vocals, too, confirming (as Kevin Spacey did last year with "Beyond the Sea") that gifted actors are sometimes also gifted singers; it's just that we don't know it. If this were an era of movie musicals, these would be singing as well as acting stars. And now that every pop singer since 1940 seems to have a biopic in the wings, that era may be returning indirectly."

Walk the Line continues to build momentum, as it was chosen to open the AFI International Film Festival.

http://www.moviecitynews.com/Notepad/20 ... 0a_pr.html

Here's David Poland's update:

Best Picture: http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... cture.html

Best Director: http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... ector.html

Best Actor/Supporting Actor: http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... Actor.html

Best Actress/Supporting Actress: http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... tress.html

So obviously, it's not just Maverikk's opinion, but the opinion of those who have seen it, who are the foremost experts in the Oscar field. I didn't bother looking for a link talking about how it went over in Toronto, because I destroyed you feable attempt enough already. Again, notice how I backed things up with links, yet you can't do that? Everybody else noticed.



No, it's a fact that Reese Witherspoon sells tickets, and that can't be denied. She continues to sell movies even if they suck. Opening weekend, although some think that's all a draw is, isn't the only thing that constitutes being a draw.

Collateral was 100 million dollar hit because of Tom Cruise, Reese makes her own grosses, so I don't know what that point was, and I don't think you do, either.

Ignoring the Vanity Fair example, as it's not thought out well, and has already been shown to be desperation. Poorly marketed and a movie that Julia Roberts and Jodie Foster couldn't sell, either. Proof? Anna and the King, starring Foster, opened in 2132 theaters to $5,223,416, and Vanity Fair opened in 1,051 theaters to $4,833,900, so she actually opened a bit better, but neither could open a movie like that. Weak argument, so please movie on from that.

The little she can draw on her name? Are these more of your made up "facts"? She opened a movie in September, relying solely on her name, to more than Jamie Foxx could open a summer film, so how are they equal? Stealth anyone?

You're throwing out some very inaccurate comments as you try to claim my proven facts with links provided are faulty? um...ok...



Do you think the trailer has to show the two of them fucking in order for people to get a clue that it's a love story? It's easy to tell from that trailer that it's two leads in a love story. Reviews tell you it is.

Girls love stories about disabled kids? Girls LOVE stories about disabled kids? You show me a story about a disbled kid that even comes close to attracting 77% females, and I'll agree that girls love stories about disabled kids. (made up "fact" # 67)

You've got some very solid credentials building here...



Out of nowhere? Ask anybody here that has a modicum of knowledge about box office if that isn't true. I definitely didn't pull that out of thin air, and even the people that don't believe this will make 100 million would tell you that. The white community, from a pure population standpoint, far outnumbers the black community, so in essense, you are telling me that if the whites support Walk the Line and blacks support Ray, many more people will support Walk the Line, because there are many more whites in North America than blacks? I'm glad you see my point...

Put Will Smith in a black film and put Will Smith in a film that whites can relate to, and watch how much more the second film will outgross the first. The race issue is a huge factor, and I'll bet MovieDude, BJ, and revolutions would be the first ones to tell you that it is. I'm sure everybody that knows box office in these forums would tell you that. If you need proof, I'll post link after link to prove it. Do you need proof?



Shack, buddy, you have to research things a bit better before you start stating them. I'm sorry to tear it apart, as I know you probably took a bit of time, but seriously, what exactly were you proving? How was anything I said faulty? Because you disagreed? I've backed things up with links, you backed things up with nothing. Give me some links. I'm off to watch Boston Legal.

Another point at why Walk the Line will not outgross Ray:

Ray Charles death: June 11, 2004
Ray Release date: Rollouts in September 2004, wide Oct. 29th 2004.

Johnny Cash's death: Sept. 12, 2003
Walk the Line release date: Rollouts Septembe 2005(festivals), wide Nov. 18 2005

Ray came out right on the heels of the hype of his saddening passing, and converted on the surge of popularity nicely with an Oscar movie(not planned but worked out perfectly).

Johnny Cash died over 2 years ago, it will be 2 years 2 months when Walk the Line comes out. Unfortunatly the surge of popularity from his death that aided the Hurt single is no longer as evident. Everyone else but the movie crowd isn't all that interested in him, not as much as we were when he died in 2003, or when Ray died last year.

Johnny Cash had his last hit BEFORE he died. Again, you need to research, as it's killed your credibility. "Hurt" was a cover of a tune by Nine Inch Nails.

Also, a lot of people don't know who the hell Jerry Lee Lewis is, or think he currently hosts Labor Day telethons and used to do movies with Dean Martin.

Again, show me a fanbase online for Ray Charles that compares to Johnny Cash. I provided hard data. Show me record sales that compare. I provided hard data. Your word isn't cutting it.

That's so badly thought out that I'm not going to bother with it.

yeah it'll pass $100M. Not by much, but it'll do it. December will push it over.

I sense....the tide...has turned.

Without a doubt, it has.

The 100 Million Dollar Club:

1. Maverikk
2. dolcevita
3. Libs
4. Killuminati510
5. BJ
6. MovieDude
7. newfoundglorysp
8. the man from fran...ce
9. insein-darko
10. rusty
11. Maximus
12. Flava'd?

The Under 100 Million Dollar Club:

1. Zingaling
2. Dr. Lecter
3. Shack
4. matatonio
5. revolutions
6. bABA

I'm in for over $100 million. I think that with the awards recognition the film is likely to receive, it'll have fantastic legs.

I can see it getting close since it has some good marketing going on, but not passing 100, prob ending up with around 85 million....however if it can get some oscar noms, looks like you might be right...but im still gonna have to say UNDER