I think CF cannot breaking the midnight record but it could break the opening Day record.
Even so to breaking the opening Day record it would require Friday day business to be nearly 60 million dollars and in 2D and that would require it so sell more tickets then recent record breaking openers did over thier opening Fridays like TA, TDK and Spider Man 3.

Apart from that Sat and Sunday records are impossibile and opening weekend record is 207 million not 200 million.

Furthermore trying to perdict this film hitting 200 million opening weekend is already requiring the film to sell more tickets then TA on Saturday and TA/TDK on Sunday.

Point is guys be reasonable...

Looking at it with reason its impossibile and it appears as always this site will overhype the film even though it will open to 170-180 million it seems.

Anything over $160 mil OW is good/expected.

But it's getting over $200 mil

I'm not predicting 200m+

Just remember 170-180 million would mean selling as many tickets as TA, TDK and Spider Man 3 opening weekend.

Catching Fire will break the ticket sales record.

Then I would choose to have the Thursday numbers always reported separately.

I agree. I wish films would stop doing pre-midnight showings. (Though I'm lenient to 10pm showings)

I think people will learn to keep expectations in check when Saturday numbers come in .


That is all.

I think $190m-$195m OW is in play and this will see way more tickets than TDK, TA and SM3 if it gets there.

Yes it will be frontloaded but with Thursday numbers it will get close to $100m OD if not more than that. Even with massive frontloading it will still make close to $50m-$55m Saturday and a good drop on Sunday for $40m Sunday which should be enough for it to get close to $190m.

I am sorry the hype and buzz do not exist for it to beat the epic three openers in ticket sales by that margin.

For to get that big of an opening day it needs to blow all of DH2 record easily and I dont see that level of craze.


I think the lesson learned from TDKR opening (yes it was subdued) but all signs clearly show a 200 million 2D opening is simply impossible.


I think people look at hey IM3 did 174 million without much craze but first it was in 3D annd 2nd it appealed to family audience allowing for one of the most ridiculous Sat Holds of recent times.

opening at 8PM does give it a chance for 200M OW. It will probably gross 40M+ before friday morning. The big question is has its audience base increased a bit since last film. I think it should open > 180M but to hit 200M it needs all the stars to be aligned. I would say 50-50 at this point. I am still staying out for 200M OW as well. As far as 450M it is almost unprecedented for a 400M grosser to increase. Just to stay flat would be awesome.

I would say 180/400/550/950M WW for now.

@Manny: I think from KJ's perspective the hype and buzz was not insane for the first movie before a week of its release. I don't stay in US so I can't exactly tell about the buzz but I see it being bigger than the first movie at the same point. I don't think this is doing $200m as well but it will get close to that mark for sure and this is out-opening IM3 (without 3D).

Problem is though to reach 190+ million it needs to get like a 60 million Saturday but I would remind a 60 million Saturday would mean it is selling as many tickets as TA and Spiderman 3 on Saturday.

I think that is where you guys are not thinking about and have lost all logic.


I can buy the argument that it would out sell DH2 and any other film on Friday but to keep up that pace on to Saturday?


I know I talk a lot about Saturday' but for CF it will likely end up as third biggest ever and will be the day to determine what CF opening will be like because this will not be dropping less then 30% on Sunday.

Based on early previews and it be a sequel it is almost certain that this film will not increase or stay flat from Friday Day onto Saturday.

In my predictions it got to $190m OW without $60m Saturday. This will be close to $100m even before Saturday starts specially with 8pm shows in picture. It could make $90m-$95m in rest of the two days then. I am currently thinking
$95m-$97m Friday
$56m Saturday
$40m Sunday
i.e. $191m-$193m OW

Actually, I know I'm opening a can of worms here, but I'm still pretty certain that TDKR would have broken the OW record without Aurora. I've have breakdown of the Friday business (notfabio has provided a lot of data from btc). The morning/matinee business was suggesting a mid 60M Friday, which would have yielded a total Friday of ~95M (that's on pace for just around 210M, also in line with what BoxOfficeBuzz was projecting Friday morning and something like 24.5M tickets). Coincidentally, the morning BO reports were suggesting the very same 90-95M, and then trended downwards as the day progressed.

Based on the data I have, TDKR was outpacing TDK by just over 50% up till 6PM, up about 3% on Avengers as well, despite no 3D (granted it was in the Summer). Total presales for this were just under Potter's record number (something like 40M), in the mid 30s, and with the midnight actual coming in under the typical expectation, the direct implication is that Friday night is where the volume would be (makes sense, considering how TDK exploded on Friday evening).

Yet, from 6PM onwards TDKR pulled 22.6M, as opposed to TDK's 33.7M (!), which is a 33% drop. I did not expect it to keep up the same pace above TDK's pace (which would have meant 50.6M from evenings, granted some IMAX shows ONLY start in the evenings), but based on the estimations I made on BOF the Wednesday night prior to release, I arrived at 40-45M. Again, that would have put the total OD at 93-98M, I would have stayed on the lower side.

Now, the point here is that CF DOES NOT need even a TDKR buzz/demand level to break the actual OW ticket sales record. The market was already ready for a dramatic increase with TDKR, which means that hitting 190ish on the OW is still sub-maximum. Its well within reach.

I think you forget TDKR was going to be a much more frontloaded film over the weekend compared to TDK and TA^^^

If TDKR had a 90-95 million opening day it would have not gotten anywhere near the record (it could have hit 200 million) million because its Saturday number would not have exceeded 60 million.


Case closed.

The end.

If TDK fell from Friday day then TDKR was going to fall much harder on Saturday regardless.

I don't think you ever read what you write.

Point is bigger opening days just lead to more frontloading over the weekend.

No, it doesn't work that way, we have so much precedence for the very opposite. You can't have that kind of non-midnight Friday day business and then see a huge drop on Saturday. You'd be better off arguing against Friday being that high in the first place, its a lot more sound. A 60-65M non-midnight Friday means a similar Saturday. Anyway, ~210 off a 95M OD is like a 2.2 IM, as opposed to 2.56 from TA and 2.36 from TDK, so I'm not even sure why this is an issue.

TDK's Saturday was like a 3% drop from Friday's ~49M dude.

We're about two or three weeks away from when the films advertising catches fire, its will make the first film seem like a blip on the radar.

95 million Friday is not a given at all. That is the high end of early morning projections of that day... Meaning it is not anything one can claim was going to happen.

Also, No way TDKR was capable of 60 + million Saturday as TDK fell from its Friday day business.

Of course I am not saying it would have fallen like DH2, but there is no doubt that TDKR was going to be much more frontloaded over the weekend compared to TDK. It was going to fall from 60 million Day business on Friday to likely to at least 56-57 million Saturday based on TDK drop and likely more.

Nonetheless there is no point debating that further because its the biggest What If in the box office. I think based on the many discussions about this, you may think TDKR was headed for a record but I think many do not think that it was.


Anyways CF will open big but we will learn again that 2D films just can't open that high.
If people are suggesting that it can then I would CF is not as hyped like TDKR was then.

I do agree though the attendance record could go down due to a massive opening day near DH2 and it holding better then DH2 over the weekend.

Catching Fire will certainly answer either way whether The Hunger Games franchise is in the same league as The Avengers, Iron Man, Spider-Man and The Dark Knight series for being an ultra-blockbuster.

The first movie could easily have been a fluke. There were just as many haters as praisers for the movie, and we've all seen franchises go down and down and never reach the level of the first. It'll be interested to see if it's another Spider-Man 2 or The Two Towers or even The Dark Knight.

Two Towers

It will never reach The Dark Knight levels

I say Spideman 2