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 Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million? 

Will An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million?
Poll ended at Sat Dec 22, 2012 8:37 pm
Yes 44%  44%  [ 8 ]
No 56%  56%  [ 10 ]
Total votes : 18

 Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million? 
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Really? Is my math wrong? IAL was at $199.3m and finished with $256.4m, multi is about 1.28. Applied to Hobbit's $228.7m i get about $293m.

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Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:33 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
But TH should do slightly better numbers from here on to IAL. The competition ahead is very light for it.


Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:38 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
And The Hobbit is a better movie tham IAL, so 300m is a real lock

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Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:39 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
A less mathmatical method; It's making almost $7m per day after about 4 weeks of release and it's about $70m away from $300m - it's locked.

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Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:41 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Magnus wrote:
Using Monday numbers.

IAL made 57.2m after New Year's Eve. Hobbit Monday is 43% higher than IAL. 57.2m * 1.43 = 82m (approx). 82m + 228m = 310m.

That's not how it works. The movies have different demographics, hence the widely different numbers on new year's eve, the same happened on christmas eve a week ago. IAL will have a much better increase today (as will Django) and will close the gap to Hobbit.

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Last edited by Nazgul9 on Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:44 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Algren wrote:
A less mathmatical method; It's making almost $7m per day after about 4 weeks of release and it's about $70m away from $300m - it's locked.

*lol* Yeah, that's what one calls holidays, which are now over. ;)

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Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:45 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Nazgul9 wrote:
Algren wrote:
A less mathmatical method; It's making almost $7m per day after about 4 weeks of release and it's about $70m away from $300m - it's locked.

*lol* Yeah, that's what one calls holidays, which are now over. ;)


You would agree that The Hobbit's run has been relatively comparable to Fellowship of the Ring's, no?

The Fellowship of the Ring made $139 million after January 1st. You really don't think it's guaranteed that The Hobbit will eek out $65 million?


Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:48 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Unless TH starts dropping like a rock from here on it should clear $70m and make $300m. I don't think it will follow IAL's numbers directly but will make a little more that that. Nothing so far can convince me otherwise.


Tue Jan 01, 2013 1:57 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
If i would be a betting man i would bet on $300m but guaranteed it is not.

Next weekend IAL dropped 42%, which is not that bad. Let's see what Hobbit does...

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Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:14 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Yes exactly my last post on previous page :P


Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:17 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
DayHobbitI Am LegendFOTR
Wed--$18,214,211
- / -
$18,214,211 / 1
Thu--$9,703,767
-46.7% / -
$27,917,978 / 2
WK 0--$27,917,978
Fri$37,125,547
- / -
$37,125,547 / 1
$30,059,386
- / -
$30,059,386 / 1
$14,232,941
+46.7% / -
$42,150,919 / 3
Sat$27,739,815
-25.3% / -
$64,865,362 / 2
$28,795,114
-4.2% / -
$58,854,500 / 2
$17,062,771
+19.9% / -
$59,213,690 / 4
Sun$19,751,941
-28.8% / -
$84,617,303 / 3
$18,356,821
-36.3% / -
$77,211,321 / 3
$15,915,778
-6.7% / -
$75,129,468 / 5
Mon$7,738,293
-60.8% / -
$92,355,596 / 4
$7,465,450
-59.3% / -
$84,676,771 / 4
$7,332,948
-53.9% / -
$82,462,416 / 6
Tue$7,855,090
+1.5% / -
$100,210,686 / 5
$6,503,117
-12.9% / -
$91,179,888 / 5
$11,570,303
+57.8% / -
$94,032,719 / 7
Wed$6,327,187
-19.5% / -
$106,537,873 / 6
$6,021,296
-7.4% / -
$97,201,184 / 6
$12,114,102
+4.7% / -33.5%
$106,146,821 / 8
Thu$6,615,027
+4.5% / -
$113,152,900 / 7
$6,064,109
+0.7% / -
$103,265,293 / 7
$11,020,009
-9% / +13.6%
$117,166,830 / 9
WK 1$113,152,900$103,265,293$89,248,852
FriEst. $10,070,000
+52.2% / -72.9%
$123,223,000 / 8
$10,907,907
+79.9% / -63.7%
$114,173,200 / 8
$12,567,729
+14% / -11.7%
$129,734,559 / 10
SatEst. $14,205,000
+41.1% / -48.8%
$137,428,000 / 9
$12,401,806
+13.7% / -56.9%
$126,575,006 / 9
$13,998,713
+11.4% / -18%
$143,733,272 / 11
SunEst. $12,665,000
-10.8% / -35.9%
$150,093,000 / 10
$10,193,488
-17.8% / -44.5%
$136,768,494 / 10
$12,129,140
-13.4% / -23.8%
$155,862,412 / 12
MonEst. $6,910,000
-45.4% / -10.7%
$157,003,000 / 11
$4,401,023
-56.8% / -41%
$141,169,517 / 11
$8,008,803
-34% / +9.2%
$163,871,215 / 13
TueEst. $11,300,000
+63.5% / +43.9%
$168,303,000 / 12
$9,781,154
+122.2% / +50.4%
$150,950,671 / 12
$10,248,284
+28% / -11.4%
$174,119,499 / 14
WedEst. $11,360,000
+0.5% / +79.5%
$179,663,000 / 13
$8,721,349
-10.8% / +44.8%
$159,672,020 / 13
$4,616,413
-55% / -61.9%
$178,735,912 / 15
ThuEst. $10,120,000
-10.9% / +53%
$189,783,000 / 14
$7,403,217
-15.1% / +22.1%
$167,075,237 / 14
$3,767,510
-18.4% / -65.8%
$182,503,422 / 16
WK 2$76,630,100$63,809,944$65,336,592
FriEst. $10,620,000
+4.9% / +5.5%
$200,403,000 / 15
$9,285,282
+25.4% / -14.9%
$176,360,519 / 15
$6,783,240
+80% / -46%
$189,286,662 / 17
SatEst. $11,610,000
+9.3% / -18.3%
$212,013,000 / 16
$9,884,859
+6.5% / -20.3%
$186,245,378 / 16
$10,114,063
+49.1% / -27.8%
$199,400,725 / 18
SunEst. $9,730,000
-16.2% / -23.2%
$221,743,000 / 17
$8,244,326
-16.6% / -19.1%
$194,489,704 / 17
$6,109,144
-39.6% / -49.6%
$205,509,869 / 19
MonEst. $6,950,000
-28.6% / +0.4%
$228,693,000 / 18
$4,855,450
-41.1% / +10.3%
$199,345,154 / 18
$1,710,810
-72% / -78.6%
$207,220,679 / 20

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Tue Jan 01, 2013 2:59 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Looks like TH might continue to have better daily numbers than FOTR for next week as well.


Tue Jan 01, 2013 10:22 pm
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Extraordinary
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Posts: 11289
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
DayHobbitI Am LegendFOTR
Wed--$18,214,211
- / -
$18,214,211 / 1
Thu--$9,703,767
-46.7% / -
$27,917,978 / 2
WK 0--$27,917,978
Fri$37,125,547
- / -
$37,125,547 / 1
$30,059,386
- / -
$30,059,386 / 1
$14,232,941
+46.7% / -
$42,150,919 / 3
Sat$27,739,815
-25.3% / -
$64,865,362 / 2
$28,795,114
-4.2% / -
$58,854,500 / 2
$17,062,771
+19.9% / -
$59,213,690 / 4
Sun$19,751,941
-28.8% / -
$84,617,303 / 3
$18,356,821
-36.3% / -
$77,211,321 / 3
$15,915,778
-6.7% / -
$75,129,468 / 5
Mon$7,738,293
-60.8% / -
$92,355,596 / 4
$7,465,450
-59.3% / -
$84,676,771 / 4
$7,332,948
-53.9% / -
$82,462,416 / 6
Tue$7,855,090
+1.5% / -
$100,210,686 / 5
$6,503,117
-12.9% / -
$91,179,888 / 5
$11,570,303
+57.8% / -
$94,032,719 / 7
Wed$6,327,187
-19.5% / -
$106,537,873 / 6
$6,021,296
-7.4% / -
$97,201,184 / 6
$12,114,102
+4.7% / -33.5%
$106,146,821 / 8
Thu$6,615,027
+4.5% / -
$113,152,900 / 7
$6,064,109
+0.7% / -
$103,265,293 / 7
$11,020,009
-9% / +13.6%
$117,166,830 / 9
WK 1$113,152,900$103,265,293$89,248,852
Fri$10,078,827
+52.4% / -72.9%
$123,231,727 / 8
$10,907,907
+79.9% / -63.7%
$114,173,200 / 8
$12,567,729
+14% / -11.7%
$129,734,559 / 10
Sat$14,160,166
+40.5% / -49%
$137,391,893 / 9
$12,401,806
+13.7% / -56.9%
$126,575,006 / 9
$13,998,713
+11.4% / -18%
$143,733,272 / 11
Sun$12,649,372
-10.7% / -36%
$150,041,265 / 10
$10,193,488
-17.8% / -44.5%
$136,768,494 / 10
$12,129,140
-13.4% / -23.8%
$155,862,412 / 12
Mon$6,897,267
-45.5% / -10.9%
$156,938,532 / 11
$4,401,023
-56.8% / -41%
$141,169,517 / 11
$8,008,803
-34% / +9.2%
$163,871,215 / 13
Tue$11,238,529
+62.9% / +43.1%
$168,177,061 / 12
$9,781,154
+122.2% / +50.4%
$150,950,671 / 12
$10,248,284
+28% / -11.4%
$174,119,499 / 14
Wed$11,388,229
+1.3% / +80%
$179,565,290 / 13
$8,721,349
-10.8% / +44.8%
$159,672,020 / 13
$4,616,413
-55% / -61.9%
$178,735,912 / 15
Thu$10,135,524
-11% / +53.2%
$189,700,814 / 14
$7,403,217
-15.1% / +22.1%
$167,075,237 / 14
$3,767,510
-18.4% / -65.8%
$182,503,422 / 16
WK 2$76,547,914$63,809,944$65,336,592
Fri$10,619,334
+4.8% / +5.4%
$200,320,148 / 15
$9,285,282
+25.4% / -14.9%
$176,360,519 / 15
$6,783,240
+80% / -46%
$189,286,662 / 17
Sat$11,588,637
+9.1% / -18.2%
$211,908,785 / 16
$9,884,859
+6.5% / -20.3%
$186,245,378 / 16
$10,114,063
+49.1% / -27.8%
$199,400,725 / 18
Sun$9,718,097
-16.1% / -23.2%
$221,626,882 / 17
$8,244,326
-16.6% / -19.1%
$194,489,704 / 17
$6,109,144
-39.6% / -49.6%
$205,509,869 / 19
Mon$6,919,722
-28.8% / +0.3%
$228,546,604 / 18
$4,855,450
-41.1% / +10.3%
$199,345,154 / 18
$1,710,810
-72% / -78.6%
$207,220,679 / 20
Tue$9,454,721
+36.6% / -15.9%
$238,001,325 / 19
$6,784,420
+39.7% / -30.6%
$206,129,574 / 19
$1,978,472
+15.6% / -80.7%
$209,199,151 / 21

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Last edited by Nazgul9 on Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:31 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Posts: 36945
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
$300m is happening. This weekend will decide if TH has any shot at $325m.


Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:46 pm
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Indiana Jones IV
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
If it follows exactly IAL's run from this point, Hobbit ends with $296M.

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Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:40 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Well it won't.

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Wed Jan 02, 2013 8:30 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Posts: 36945
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Yeah it has been doing a lot better than IAL. FOTR dailies are a better comparison (or at least they were during holidays), I don't think it will follow FOTR from here on but something in between IAL and FOTR % drop wise sounds right. Also if it indeed reaches $296m-$297m, WB would push it past $300m mark IMO, though I am sure it won't need that push at this point.


Thu Jan 03, 2013 1:09 am
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Extraordinary
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Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
DayHobbitI Am LegendFOTR
Wed--$18,214,211
- / -
$18,214,211 / 1
Thu--$9,703,767
-46.7% / -
$27,917,978 / 2
WK 0--$27,917,978
Fri$37,125,547
- / -
$37,125,547 / 1
$30,059,386
- / -
$30,059,386 / 1
$14,232,941
+46.7% / -
$42,150,919 / 3
Sat$27,739,815
-25.3% / -
$64,865,362 / 2
$28,795,114
-4.2% / -
$58,854,500 / 2
$17,062,771
+19.9% / -
$59,213,690 / 4
Sun$19,751,941
-28.8% / -
$84,617,303 / 3
$18,356,821
-36.3% / -
$77,211,321 / 3
$15,915,778
-6.7% / -
$75,129,468 / 5
Mon$7,738,293
-60.8% / -
$92,355,596 / 4
$7,465,450
-59.3% / -
$84,676,771 / 4
$7,332,948
-53.9% / -
$82,462,416 / 6
Tue$7,855,090
+1.5% / -
$100,210,686 / 5
$6,503,117
-12.9% / -
$91,179,888 / 5
$11,570,303
+57.8% / -
$94,032,719 / 7
Wed$6,327,187
-19.5% / -
$106,537,873 / 6
$6,021,296
-7.4% / -
$97,201,184 / 6
$12,114,102
+4.7% / -33.5%
$106,146,821 / 8
Thu$6,615,027
+4.5% / -
$113,152,900 / 7
$6,064,109
+0.7% / -
$103,265,293 / 7
$11,020,009
-9% / +13.6%
$117,166,830 / 9
WK 1$113,152,900$103,265,293$89,248,852
Fri$10,078,827
+52.4% / -72.9%
$123,231,727 / 8
$10,907,907
+79.9% / -63.7%
$114,173,200 / 8
$12,567,729
+14% / -11.7%
$129,734,559 / 10
Sat$14,160,166
+40.5% / -49%
$137,391,893 / 9
$12,401,806
+13.7% / -56.9%
$126,575,006 / 9
$13,998,713
+11.4% / -18%
$143,733,272 / 11
Sun$12,649,372
-10.7% / -36%
$150,041,265 / 10
$10,193,488
-17.8% / -44.5%
$136,768,494 / 10
$12,129,140
-13.4% / -23.8%
$155,862,412 / 12
Mon$6,897,267
-45.5% / -10.9%
$156,938,532 / 11
$4,401,023
-56.8% / -41%
$141,169,517 / 11
$8,008,803
-34% / +9.2%
$163,871,215 / 13
Tue$11,238,529
+62.9% / +43.1%
$168,177,061 / 12
$9,781,154
+122.2% / +50.4%
$150,950,671 / 12
$10,248,284
+28% / -11.4%
$174,119,499 / 14
Wed$11,388,229
+1.3% / +80%
$179,565,290 / 13
$8,721,349
-10.8% / +44.8%
$159,672,020 / 13
$4,616,413
-55% / -61.9%
$178,735,912 / 15
Thu$10,135,524
-11% / +53.2%
$189,700,814 / 14
$7,403,217
-15.1% / +22.1%
$167,075,237 / 14
$3,767,510
-18.4% / -65.8%
$182,503,422 / 16
WK 2$76,547,914$63,809,944$65,336,592
Fri$10,619,334
+4.8% / +5.4%
$200,320,148 / 15
$9,285,282
+25.4% / -14.9%
$176,360,519 / 15
$6,783,240
+80% / -46%
$189,286,662 / 17
Sat$11,588,637
+9.1% / -18.2%
$211,908,785 / 16
$9,884,859
+6.5% / -20.3%
$186,245,378 / 16
$10,114,063
+49.1% / -27.8%
$199,400,725 / 18
Sun$9,718,097
-16.1% / -23.2%
$221,626,882 / 17
$8,244,326
-16.6% / -19.1%
$194,489,704 / 17
$6,109,144
-39.6% / -49.6%
$205,509,869 / 19
Mon$6,919,722
-28.8% / +0.3%
$228,546,604 / 18
$4,855,450
-41.1% / +10.3%
$199,345,154 / 18
$1,710,810
-72% / -78.6%
$207,220,679 / 20
Tue$9,454,721
+36.6% / -15.9%
$238,001,325 / 19
$6,784,420
+39.7% / -30.6%
$206,129,574 / 19
$1,978,472
+15.6% / -80.7%
$209,199,151 / 21
Wed$4,449,012
-52.9% / -60.9%
$242,450,337 / 20
$3,377,329
-50.2% / -61.3%
$209,506,903 / 20
$1,525,350
-22.9% / -67%
$210,724,501 / 22
ThuEst. $3,845,000
-13.6% / -62.1%
$246,295,000 / 21
$2,831,301
-16.2% / -61.8%
$212,338,204 / 21
$1,395,114
-8.5% / -63%
$212,119,615 / 23
WK 3$56,594,186$45,262,967$29,616,193
FriEst. $5,250,000
+36.5% / -50.6%
$226,877,000 / 22
$5,185,861
+83.2% / -44.1%
$217,524,065 / 22
$4,241,049
+204% / -37.5%
$216,360,664 / 24
SatEst. $7,725,000
+47.1% / -33.3%
$234,602,000 / 23
$6,846,667
+32% / -30.7%
$224,370,732 / 23
$7,268,117
+71.4% / -28.1%
$223,628,781 / 25
SunEst. $4,550,000
-41.1% / -53.2%
$263,820,000 / 24
$3,684,930
-46.2% / -55.3%
$228,055,662 / 24
$4,692,094
-35.4% / -23.2%
$228,320,875 / 26

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Last edited by Nazgul9 on Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Thu Jan 03, 2013 2:23 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Updated chart.

Hobbit dropped worse than IAL on its 4th weekend and made only $1.8m more. IAL went on to make another $28m from this point on, that would put Hobbit at $292m, so it needs to gain another $8m for it to hit $300m.

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Sun Jan 06, 2013 1:57 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
$300 million is a lock, if only because it'll have ZERO competition the entire month.

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Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:12 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Yeah $300m is happening but I don't think it will get to anything more. Maybe if it gets a slew of technical awards nominations and becomes the most nominated movie it might get a slight Oscar boost but I highly doubt that as well cause I see Life of Pi getting a lot of technical awards as well along with BD and BP.


Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:19 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Dr. Lecter wrote:
$300 million is a lock, if only because it'll have ZERO competition the entire month.

It'll start to shed theaters, though.

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Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:28 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
If it had matched the performance of it's predecessors in the LOTR series, what would The Hobbit have been expected to earn given the intervening inflation plus the 3D premium?


Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:33 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
Nazgul9 wrote:
Updated chart.

Hobbit dropped worse than IAL on its 4th weekend and made only $1.8m more. IAL went on to make another $28m from this point on, that would put Hobbit at $292m, so it needs to gain another $8m for it to hit $300m.


Did you notice the drops for IAL on the subsequent weekends after this one?

05th weekend (-48.0%)
06th weekend (-40.2%) -- This was even on a holiday weekend
07th weekend (-54.8%)
08th weekend (-54.1%)
09th weekend (-42.0%)
10th weekend (-54.5%) -- Another holiday weekend
11th weekend (-43.6%)

IAL had some pretty awful late-run legs. I remember pretty much everyone considered it a lock to pass at least $275m when it was still in its holiday run and then it just collapsed. I don't see TH fairing that poorly from here on out.


Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:38 pm
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Post Re: Will The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey reach 325 million
I did. Hobbit will probably fare a little better, that's true. How much better remains to be seen.

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Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:41 pm
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