I'm finding it impossible to come up with predictions for the derby.

I might do better typing it in blind-folded.

i dont know what to do ....

Yeah I'm lost too, this is wack.

Yeah, I'm not sure how I'm going to write the article either. Everything I say will be just b.s.

Remeber my article from last year.

I said that I just b.s.'ed on my prediction. This year is the same, I just based on predictions on absolutely nothing, so just say how you predicted and why you predicted these numbers, even if it sounds inane.

Final predictions
King Kong - 32.1 million(3-day) / 44.2 million(4-day)
Cheaper By the Dozen 2 - 21.4 million(3-day) / 30.5 million(4-day) / 39.9 million(6-day)
Narnia - 15.9 million(3-day) / 23.5 million(4-day)
Fun With Dick and Jane - 18.9 million(3-day) / 23.4 million(4-day) / 34.1 million(6-day)
Munich - 9.9 million(3-day) / 11.1 million(4-day)
Memoirs of a Geisha - 9.5 million(3-day) / 10.9 million(4-day)
Harry Potter - 5.1 million(3-day) / 7.3 million(4-day)
The Ringer - 5.5 million(3-day) / 7.2 million(4-day)
Family Stone - 4.7 million(3-day) / 6.4 million(4-day)

Rumor Has It - 8.0 million(1-day) / 15.2 mil(2-day)
Wolf Creek - 2.4 million(1-day) / 4.7 mil(2-day)
The Producers - 3.0 million(1-day) / 5.3 million(2-day)

...

Wow.

This is the reefer of box-office predicting. It's fun, but unbelievably harsh. Most of mine is just wild stabbing, I tried to make some calculations but it was just all madness.

King Kong - 33 (4-day)
Dick and Jane - 25 (4-day)
Cheaper 2 - 25 (4-day)
Narnia - 25 (4-day)
Rumor Has It - 12.5 (2-day)
Family Stone - 10 (4-day)
Geisha - 8 (4-day)
Munich - 7 (4-day)
Harry Potter - 6 (4-day)
Wolf Creek - 5 (2-day)
The Ringer - 4 (4-day)
The Producers - 3 (2-day wide)

I don't care if I'm low-balling everything, I'm scared of Christmas Eve, I'm scared of last year, I'm traumatized

Edit: lowered Munich, just to be safe, but I stand firm in my 3-way tie for second

J, I used the same tactic this year as well. Here are my prediciton.

King Kong - 35.1m (-30%)
Narnia - 25.1m (-21%)
Cheaper By the Dozen 2 - 24.4m (7800 pta)
Fun With Dick and Jane - 22.4m (7300 pta)
Rumor Has it - 10.2m (3600 pta)
Family Stone - 9.8m (-22%)
Memoirs of the Geisha - 7.7m (5500 pta)
Munich - 5.8m (11000 pta)
Harry Potter - 4.8m (-20%)
Ringer - 4.6m (2800 pta)
Wolf Creek - 4.5m (2600 pta)
Producers - 4.3m (4000+ pta)

Top Ten - 158.7m (three day portion - about 110m)

Kong will have a typical blockbuster drop, thanks to christmas eve distractions.
Harry Potter and Narnia will drop thanks to weak Christmas eve and Christmas day numbers, but December 26th should make up for it, but that will still not be enough.
Fun and Cheaper will be neck to neck if the 4-5 million Wednesdays come true, but December 26th give Cheaper the advantage, though Fun gets the Christmas Day advantage. I expect 6 million Friday grosses from both.
Rumor Has it should be similar to Family Stone if it were two day, per screen average wise. Print Counts are good.
Family Stone will be stable in the first 2 days, but Rumor might take it's audience away on Sunday (hence the 20%+ drop).
Memiors will get 16% of it's pta, like most other movies.
Munich will fall under 10000 pta in the three day portion thanks to Christmas Eve and the low print count.
Ringer will bomb, with an especially low number in the 3-day portion (which should get under 2000). It was selved and the buzz is bad.
Wolf Creek will not be as strong as Darkness thanks to it's R-rating, but it should do better than expected for this type of movie. Good Reviews will help.
Producers I think will follow the Life Aquatic pattern.

This might not be the best reasoning, but let's see if not highballing anything works in my favor.

The only film I see up there that is not under predicted is The Producers.

well i just added my predictions to the derby, hope there good enough

Hehe, I'm pretty close with both JMorphin and Scott. The only thing I have confidence is that the top 12 will gross about $160M total for the 4-day.

Ive never seen so much under predicting in all my life

yeah, i really think you guys are underpredicting some movies....i got this weird feeling...hmmmm

BJ, I don't see we're underpredicting. Last year the top 12 grossed $118.6 million for the 3-day weekend. This year we basically switch Friday and Saturday, and add Monday to the mix. Monday should add another 30-35% of 3-day weekend total, so multiply last year's number by 1.35, we have $160 million for the top 12. Shack has a 4-day total of $190M, and some have more, but I can't see that happening.

Maybe this will cheer you up slightly BJ. I'm playing the derby for the first time in months.

1. King Kong - 41.2m
2. Cheaper by the Dozen 2 - 36.4m
3. Fun with Dick and Jane - 27.3m
4. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe - 26.5m
5. Memoirs of a Geisha - 11.7m (good advertising)
6. The Family Stone - 11.6m
7. Rumor Has It - 11.4m
8. Munich - 9.8m
9. Wolf Creek - 7.4m
10. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - 5.1m
11. The Ringer - 4.8m
12. The Producers - 1.2m

uuh i really like your predictions somewhat close to mine....but i think you went a little to high on Wolf Creek

yeah, that rocks a little low on Narnia though

The Producers and Wolf Creek are certainly the most fun ones.

Great, I'm the only one in the all-time top 10 chart who entered the predictions (Brandon will still enter his, but I doubt others will attempt to get them in before the deadline).

Maybe it's just me, but I have seen a decent amount of advertising.

yeah me too, but its to much for just a 2-day weekend

BJs Predictions:

4-Day-Wknd:

1. King Kong - 50m
2. Cheaper by the Dozen 2 - 34m
3. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion the Wtch and the Wardrobe - 32m
4. Fun with Dick and Jane - 22m
5. Memoirs if Geisha - 14.8m
6. Munich - 12.4m
7. Rumor Has It - 11.6m
8. The Family Stone - 11.4m
9. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - 6.2m
10. Brokeback Mountain - 5.8m
11. Wolf Creek - 5.2m
12. The Ringer - 5.2m

The Producers - 1.6m

Top 12 for the 4-day wknd - 210.6m

BJs Predictions of the 3-day wknd:

1. King Kong - 30m
2. Cheaper by the Dozen 2 - 24m
3. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe - 20m
4. Fun with Dick and Jane - 16m
5. Memoirs of Geisha - 10.6m
6. Munich - 8.6m
7. The Family Stone - 7.4m
8. Rumor Has It - 5.6m
9. Brokeback Mountain - 4.0m
10. The Ringer - 4.0m
11. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - 4.0m
12. Wolf Creek - 2.6m

Top 12 over the 3-Day: 136.8m

I would love it if you were right BJ.

ooh wow.... now thats way to much...



OK im going to bed now! Goodnight everyone

God bless you Scott! Good to see you and Scott have similar predictions to mine, so at least I don't go down the tubes alone.

A couple of predicts I'll explain are

Rumor Has It-same release pattern as fat albert, with similar reviews. The difference here is that Fat Albert had a more family-friendly theme that helped it out on Christmas. FA made 10 million in its first two days, so I think I put RHI around 8 million.

I called for an increase for Harry Potter, only because the other ones did as well, although it isn't as high as COS's increase.

Wow, all the predictions are quite similar this week:

1- King Kong - 34.1
2- Cheaper by the Dozen 2 - 28.5
3- The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe - 25.9
4- Fun with Dick and Jane - 24.5
5- Rumor Has It - 12.1 (6500 * 2800 * 2 / 3)
6- Memoirs of a Geisha - 10.6 (5700 * 1400 * 4 / 3)
7- Munich - 10.2(14500 * 525 * 4 / 3)
8- The Family Stone - 9.0
9- Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - 6.4
10- The Ringer - 5.9 (2750 * 1600 * 4 / 3)
11- Wolf Creek - 4.4 (2.4 + 2)
12- The Producers - 2.7 ( ( 3950 * 1000 * 2 / 3 ) + 100k)