Don't forget Over the Hedge. Another 200+ million grosser. 4 200+ grossers? There's too much going around in those three weeks. Something is bound to get lost in the skuffle. Its going to be Podeidon.

Yeah but X3 is for kids, Da Vinci is for adults. What Poseiden has going for it is that it is for everyone young and old. The summer box office loves wide appeal movies like that.

This movie is going to capsize.

I'm convinced that it will travely north of 100 million, but it might end in the 120-130 million range. I think it has less must-see status than the other big May openers. The competition will be fierce. Then again, it has more adult appeal than X-Men 3 and M:I-3, so it might well climb to 170-180 million range. I seriously doubt it will get to 200 million. It has too much of a been-there-done-that feeling, even if it looks very entertaining and effective.

145 million is my bet.

I think "sink like a stone" was better.

Between this and The Da Vinci Code I actually agree with Dolce on the BO of two movies this May.

Although I doubt it will be quite as low as 20m opening weekend. The tracking looks pretty accurate IMO.

31m/87m

well, ive seen a few tv spot for it, it looks big and fun. i know ill be seeing it, as will a bunch of my friends.

Tracking increased up to 39 million. If it went at the same pace for the next two weeks we'd be looking at a 49 million opener, not that tracking works quite like that.

High-tech remake or not, this still looks like a generic disaster flick to me. Is is realistic to expect anything close to "Day After Tomorrow" numbers for this? To me, the Poseidon trailer doesn't grab me, but I still won't be surprised if this can approach a $40M+ OW.

Other than excel, I don't think anyone expects those types of numbers. The differences in the marketing push between Poseidon and The Day After Tomorrow are huge. Poseidon should still do well, but not that well.

this is a lock for 40 million opeing unless the tv spots stop. hop[efully theyll increase, which they should. I dont see day after tomorrow numbers any more due to low tracking/mi3 will overpreform my 75/200 prediction.

But i think tracking will be aorunf 45-50 million when it opens(days industry tracking was at 56 million). it got 68 million. I think this has broader appeal then most think, and will also over preform opening weekend amnd get around 60 million, but a 50% tumble down to 30 million, and a 33% tumble for the four day memorial day to get 20 million, and a total arounmd 165-170 million, and worldwide between 450-500 million.

I agree about the at least $40 million opening, but this will not have a good multiplier. It'll have to open to $55 million+ to make $150 million. I'll say 50/140 for now.

Poseidon is screaming a Troy run. Both have the same release date, same director and lots of competition. Poseidon won't have an awful multiplier because it'll still be making a decent amount on Memorial Day weekend.

50/130.

not only that,but i think it looks like itll be a very good movie. i dont think itll get bad word of mouth.

Magnus I dunno. As of right now, im seeing more posiedonm tv spots then I am for MI3. I dont know why, but the only place im really seeing MI3 tv spots is online. i watch ESPN virtually all day and then watch the talk shows at night, no joke, ive see atleast 1 posiedon spot every day for the past 4 days whil seeing NO mission impossible 3 spots-thhat and posiedon has 3 talk show appearences next week, while i havent seen any for MI3. my thing is, with firewall, v for vendetta, w.b. had tons of tv spots inthe 3 weeks leading up to it, but then in that final week, i saw none. i fear theyll do the same to posiedon, and these tv spots im seeing are the only ones thatll be about.

to me, not involving my preference to either movie, and assuming i didnt go online, I would be saying poseidon would beat mi3 because i honesly havent seen too many MI3 spots, while channels like like mtv, espn, and abc are littered with posiedon spots, hence why im saying 60/170 as my FINAL estimate.

i mean MI3 will be big, but i mean, 88 million tracking-HOW? Not many people have seen the films trailers in theaters, and I have my tv on ALL THE TIME on big channels, and i really have not seen many mi3 spots. im assuming the tracking isnt THAT far off and say mi3 will get around 70 million opening weekend, but i think people are getting caught up in mi3's hype, personally. even as late as yesterday, i was, but today i saw 2 poseidon tv spots that in my opinion, were very impressive. I saw one with american idol, i saw one with the apprentice, and they all look good. WB's advertising as a big old disatser summer flick, with most tv spots really only showing the wave hitting, the build up to it, ect.


basically im saying that MI3 is being overtracked/over predicted and poseidon is being under tracke/under predicted.

ever since kong i have decided there are 2 kinds of buzz-internet buzz and public buzz. mi3 and x3-like say, batman begins and kong last year-have a lot of internet hype, and that leads most to bigger predictions, and i think what people are doing on MI3 is predicting it based on its internet hype, and not its public buzz. It'll be abig film, but these 85-90 million+ opening weekend rumors are just total bs. there simply has not been enough tv spots, and at this point with 8 days to go, there really isnt enough time to create THAT level buzz of buzz.

i just saw another one during leno, a ne wone, equally impressive showing off what seem sliek a tagline "theres nothing fair about who lives and who dies".

but again, ifear they may have started the spots too early and the week of may 8-12th, there wont be enough spots.

Umm... Excel... I never saw a SINGLE commercial/trailer for that dancing movie this year... and it got #2 for the weekend over Slevin which I saw TONS of commercials/trailers for...

MI3 WILL make over $82 mil opening weekend... Poseidon may not win it's weekend unless it gets over $40 mil... which it is heading toward but not gauranteed...

dancing movie open to 12 million...mi3 is supposed to make 7 ties that.

Opening 60.5 million
Total 175 million
Worldwide 350 million

If this opens to $60M+, I will print this out this forum, sautee` it in a fine White Zinfadel sauce, and then eat it for dinner.

Poseidon will have 10PM showings on Thursday, May 11, similar to what WB did with The Matrix Reloaded and V for Vendetta, though it didn't work well for the latter.

thats surprising given its not tracking THAT well...

It's not like V for Vendetta was tracking at $50 million either.

Tracking is pretty much in par with most people's prediction here mid 30s to low 40s. I dont se anything about it being "not tracking well". And expecting DAT opening is unrealistic expectations

50m+ opening 150m+ top out.