Minecraft is set to open the same weekend as Mario did, April 5, 2025. Easter in its 3rd weekend.

Jack Black was just announced to join the cast joining Jason Mamoa. Enid Sinclair (Wednesday's roommate from the Netflix show) is also in it so could appeal to multi-demographic audiences.

Minecraft makes hundreds of millions in revenue a year so seems primed for a mega breakout.

This has the inklings of a Jumanji type run ($300M+) if all goes well for it. Another 2 years of inflation as well.

Then there's the pre-existing fanbase. 166 million monthly active users as of December 2023 worldwide. If 1/10 of them watch this movie it would do $183M alone.

The other big plus for me though is Mamoa's box office prowess feels a lot higher than I expected. There's an audience that still showed up to see him in Aquaman and I don't think as many people would have tolerated all of the bad press, reviews, etc. if he wasn't in it. He seems to have some box office pull to anchor this type of movie.

Impossible to tell without a trailer but I’d be willing to bet at least Detective Pikachu numbers

Minecraft is big, second biggest game of all time, but that number is misleading. Unlike Mario this game doesn’t have the cross generational appeal and hasn’t entered the overall cultural zeitgeist in the same fashion. I think it would do well like the Sonic movies on appeal alone, but nothing ground breaking

I agree with Darth, however movies have a tendency to make that jump into the cultural zeitgeist for certain properties, and perhaps this one will work for Minecraft, particularly if it's made by Illumination or has a popular star involved. Currently going with sub-$100m but let's see how it unfolds.

Pending what it looks like it will be big - $300m+ as Minecraft is indeed a monster. Kids are aware of the film and it hasnt even started production. Thougb agree with DIB - it doesnt have the cross generational appeal of Mario.

Presales for this movie just started and its mediocre for sure. Its neither Mario nor Five nights at freddys. 1/3rd of Sonic 3 OD PS. I am thinking Angry Birds would be better comp for this one. Let us see where things are a week to release.

Looks awful to me. But it'll probably get the young crowd? Idk the demographic for the game

Looks like a botch considering the potential. I guess they could try again with an animated movie eventually.

Yeah it's looking more World of Warcraft, might be big overseas. I'm not familiar with the games but it seems there isn't really a character for general audiences to come in for condensing. A very hard game to adapt and the movie just seems to miss it.

Minecraft is also yesterday's news. Most kids move on to Roblox and Fortnight after the age of 8.

Yes, it still has a big fanbase of young kids and adults - but most aren't interested in the crap WB is serving up.

A $40-45m OW seems to be the upper limit.

It comes off like they had the idea to rip off Jumanji but the AI/algorithms or execs whispered in their ear "We need kid characters with Minecraft's popularity with them!" which is a massive change that makes the movie look as young skewing as like Pan or something, compared to Jumanji having four adults including a hot chick. Also I don't know if it's going to be a running joke in the movie, but Momoa dressed like a girl makes the whole thing look less cool. Comparing the costume work to Jumanji it's not even close.

Pre pandemic (2019) I feel this would’ve done ~80m even if it was the same movie we’re getting now, with the potential to hit $100m if it actually looked good

I think it can at least get to 40m OW and 100m total.

I would be surprised if it missed that. I am expecting 45m OW and at least 3x legs. Its not a bomb or anything. just that it did not show there is any fan rush.

Given this March is going to be one of the worst on record I think Minecraft gets a premium bump of being the only thing in town type situation. I wasn't that interested to see it but given how bad the box office will be by then it's really the only big thing in the near term.

I'm not sure about Minecraft reaching 3x legs. It's definitely possible (especially if the movie surprises all of us and is received well), but I think the recent example of Dog Man shows that more fan driven family fare aren't guaranteed to get close to 3x legs just because of little competition.

I have not seen any sign of fan driven rush. Its PS is more like a family flick. Let us wait and see how it goes. final week sales will tell the tale.

DHD is saying $60M+ in tracking. The movie hit three-week NRG tracking today.

https://deadline.com/2025/03/minecraft- ... 236325425/

If that happens that would be a solid start though likely a very fast run.

I am skeptical it goes that high. Let us see where things are near release. For now I am expecting in low to mid 40s OW.

Its definitely amping up at this point. I think its going higher than what i initially thought. May be 60m ish or more at this point. Its looking really good.

I think it may rake it in internationally like how China likes Minecraft and Momoa in Aquaman worked for them.

I would not be shocked by a Pokemon movie type run. First 5 days ends up with most of the gross. Will open big but would be shocked if it gets any legs whatsoever.

It’s a family film with little competition for a month

Fan driven IP. Dogman for a $36M OW is skimping by $100M which isn't yet guaranteed. Dropped 62% weekend 2. I feel like this could have even steeper drops.

Dog man had the Super Bowl in its second weekend, and is also a major outlier. It’s second weekend drop was unprecedented