Looking like Marvel's Suicide Squad will be Thunderbolts. The projects that have led up to it so far have been disappointing. If they turn their act around though and the marketing is good, this does look like one of the more interesting projects of Phase 5.

Sub-$200 million, but I must admit I don't know anything about it yet other than potential characters (that's where the lameness comes into it):

Baron Zemo (Daniel Brühl)
Valentina Allegra de Fontaine (Julia Louis-Dreyfus)
Yelena Belova (Florence Pugh)
Ghost (Hannah John-Kamen)
Abomination (Tim Roth)
John Walker (Wyatt Russell)
Taskmaster (Olga Kurylenko)
Clint Barton (Jeremy Renner)
Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan)

Nobody cares about these characters, lol.

Also don't know how they'll do this plotline without William Hurt

They have to get Loki on the team somehow. Every other A-list villain has been killed or switched sides.

anywhere in the 276m-300m range

This is a tough one. Not sure about the Tier 2 and 3 villains, however there will likely be some bigger name superheroes in it to get it over $250m at least.

Also - the fake Captain America may be in it + others that have yet to appear.

Basically Black Widow 2 with Pugh's character as lead. I'm gonna say bomb.

I don’t see big numbers for it but I think it might have an ok critical reception if it’s serious and avoids the marvel humor

Sub-$200m was always the right play here.

A superhero movie in 2024 doesn't feel lucrative anymore, and it wasn't that long ago that Eternals did $165 million. The landscape has really changed in such a short time. The "is that Bucky" mic drop moment in the trailer has got to be the worst yet. The fact they think Bucky has that pull is laughable. It can't even play well as a team-up movie. We all saw how well Borderlands did.

It'll probably do sub-$100m.

Is there any word on test screenings of this?

Positive WOM could be its saving grace.

I am expecting this to have lowest OW since Marvels. Buzz is quite low looking at metrics from Quorum. For now I am thinking 50/125 kind of run. But let us see where things are once presales start.

This seems like a poor man's Suicide Squad. But without a major star/character in it. I am not convinced Winter Soldier and Black Widow not named Natasha are the way to go. Director is another tv guy with very little movie experience and so this is another one directed by committee and that has not gone well post end game for Marvel.

I think it will do a bit better than that because the first weekend of May jump off will be beneficial (at least OW). Moviegoers are primed for superhero movies that weekend.

Covid years aside and other than Fall Guy which underperformed superhero movies have had this time corridor locked in since 2007.

The non superhero movies (Fall Guy 2024, Mission Impossible 3 2006, Kingdom of Heaven 2005, Van Helsing 2004) all have disappointed since 2001 on.

Gladiator and The Mummy 2 (2001) are the only MCU movies to overperform that weekend this century I feel in terms of first weekend of May tentpoles (and April holdovers that are MCU films).

65/165 DOM. Maybe like 170-200m INT.

I think reviews will really kill or make this one. If it can get 80%plus on RT I could see it out gross Cap 4. If reviews are meh, it could do Marvels numbers.

Let us know how presales started today.

Too early to give anything concrete but its not Marvels at least but weaker than Cap 4 for sure.

I would say low 70s OW for now. But need more data before we can hone in. its still early.

I think a $70/$180m run would be decent for this.

Around $200M would be totally fine for this. Even if it flopped it wouldn't be a huge deal. Fantastic Four is the only one that matters this year. Movie wise anyways. Daredevil Born Again being lame should hopefully put an end to the tv shows which is good for the audience but bad for the future of Disney+ lol.

thinking 70-75m

It is still a Marvel summer kickoff.

If this and Brave New World aren't the flop then maybe F4 should watch its back.

F4 is not flopping. That one clearly is opening north of 100m based on the trailer interest.

I think when all is said and done - all three MCU films this year will survive not being flops. If both CA4 and Thunderbolts end up close to $200m then they avoid being flops. Thunderbolts would actually be a bit of a hit.
Then FF4 should be able to go $100m higher than these two.

Cap 4 is still a flop, it’s just not a Marvels, Joker 2 or the Flash. It’s an Ant Man 3/Aquaman 2.

I feel like Final Destination is going to be a major, major cinematic event and so this realistically has about 12 days to make money before it will get squashed. A lighter opening and harsher legs, I'm not 100% set it will reach $200M or come close.