1 INCEPTION 21.7
2 DESPICABLE ME 10.0
3 THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE 5.4
4 THE TWILIGHT SAGA: ECLIPSE 4.5
5 TOY STORY 3 3.5
6 GROWN UPS 3.2
7 THE LAST AIRBENDER 2.2
8 PREDATORS 2.1
9 KNIGHT AND DAY 1.0
10 THE KARATE KID 0.65

http://www.variety.com/article/VR111802 ... =1082&cs=1

$55m - $60m weekend i guess.

After the MTC shock it is a nice number, but two months ago who would have thought that DESPICABLE ME ($21.3m) and INCEPTION ($21.6m) would be this close on opening day...

ERC:

1 INCEPTION Warner Bros. · 3792 · $60,000,000 · $15,823 · $60,000,000
2 DESPICABLE ME Universal · 3501 · $32,000,000 · $9,140 · $117,000,000
3 THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE Walt Disney · 3504 · $16,500,000 · $4,709 · $24,000,000
4 THE TWILIGHT SAGA: ECLIPSE Summit · 4001 · $13,000,000 · $3,249 · $264,000,000
5 TOY STORY 3 Walt Disney · 3177 · $11,000,000 · $3,462 · $362,000,000
6 GROWN UPS Sony · 3074 · $9,500,000 · $3,090 · $129,000,000
7 THE LAST AIRBENDER Paramount · 2805 · $7,500,000 · $2,674 · $115,000,000
8 PREDATORS Fox · 2669 · $6,750,000 · $2,529 · $40,000,000
9 KNIGHT AND DAY Fox · 1925 · $3,500,000 · $1,818 · $69,000,000
10 THE KARATE KID Sony · 1532 · $2,000,000 · $1,305 · $169,000,000
11 CYRUS Fox Searchlight · 446 · $1,000,000 · $2,242 · $5,000,000
12 THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT FOCUS · 38 · $975,000 · $25,658 · $1,725,000

http://www.ercboxoffice.com/

BoxOffice:

Inception $58,500,000 $58,500,000
Despicable Me $32,500,000 $118,130,895
The Sorcerer's Apprentice $17,300,000 $24,388,437
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse $13,500,000 $264,871,417
Toy Story 3 $11,500,000 $362,467,102
The Last Airbender $7,000,000 $114,383,454
Predators $6,700,000 $39,984,041
Knight and Day $3,600,000 $69,109,379

http://www.boxoffice.com/

It deserves more. That is a terrible drop.

MUCH better than inital 18 million estimates, and will rise with actuals.

21.6 is right it should down. 21.6 for a 58-60 million weekend.

I don't understand those weekend estimates. Do they project early friday numbers(not even studio estimates)?

It's a fine number for Inception. That would still be more tickets than Avatar sold opening day. A 55-60 OW would be solid if there are indeed great legs in store.

Sorcerer is a fully fledged flop. It's not an movie that would make much money anytime of the year, but with DM/TS3 in the market, it came out at a bad time.

Pretty bad holds all around. Even KAAR came back down to earth. Is that a 75% drop for Predators? Holy shit.

Interesting the number just kept on increasing for Inception by each and every update. There is good chance it crosses 22m when the actuals are out. That would be great, I hope now it crosses 60m mark still that one is not very likely.

Huge drops for all holdovers I guess this summer is all about opening weekends and if a movie misses good on OW then the holds are not that great

Variety:

Holdovers:

$10m DM
$4.5m ECLIPSE
$3.45m TS3
$3.2m GU
$2.2m AIR
$2.1m PREDATORS
$1.0m K&D
$0.65m KK

They guess based on friday estimates, just like we do.

What's with all the bad drops i wonder...

That's a drop of 80 % - another movie successfully doomed by BKB...

Solid, but somewhat underwhelming for Inception. I'll be happy when if it crosses $60m this weekend and $200m total.

Disasterous for the holdovers.

It's not a franchise/sequel, I see no reason why it shouldn't have a 2.8 IM

Minority Report had a 3.06 multiplier in 2002. So I don't see why this couldn't manage 2.7ish.

What if WOM isn't as great among Joe Public?

I have a hard time seeing this increase on saturday when even movies like DM decrease in July.

Yep. No chance for a sequel now.

BKB i hope you perish.

I really hope that we'll be seeing big Saturday increases, because those numbers for the holdovers suck!!

This is going to be bigger than estimates. I knew itd be over 20 and it'll keep rising.

Look for actuals of 22.4 and 62-ish.

Yes, 59% drop for Twatlight, 300 is still not guaranteed. Predators is sad, but it still will do over 130 WW so its got a potential for a sequel. Inception was pretty much expected in my opinion, and pretty great opening, DM is doing fantastic.

I think Inception is somewhat frontloaded due to Nolanites such as yourself, it did about $3m midnights after all.

You could be on to something. Maybe friday was deflated for some reason. If that turns out to be the case even Inception might increase.

Not guaranteed, but still very likely. It's weekdays have just been so strong...
Preditors will probably not get a sequel based on this performance, despite the low budget, unless it really sells on DVD.

DM had a harsh drop, but so did TS3 in it's second weekend.
I expect it's legs to be much better from here on out.
Even still, it's heading for 200 million, just how much further is the question.

That's a great opening for Inception if it can indeed grow legs thanks to WOM.
Again, I thought the movie was incredible, so I'm really pulling for a Matrix like run and over 200 million total. I also hope Nolan gets a best director nom!

Inceptions Nolan fanbase is offset by the older, slower, bkb aged audiences who avoid seeing films on Friday like the plague.

based on predator's drop and inception breaking MTC/RS trend, we can conclude BKB effect is easily the best barometer for judging a movie's potential.