I'm calling it. This isn't so much that I think Trek is going to be that huge, but I think Avatar is going to massively dissappoint. Sci-Fi at Christmas historically does crap, and it's been a long time since Cameron has done anything in that genre, outside of the medicore "Dark Angel". I personally think audiences aren't going to be excited by the storyline, and the enhanced effects may limit how many theatres this will be shown in. Trek on the other hand is getting a ton of buzz, and if it can keep the hype that's had for the past few months up for a bit longer, it's going to have at least a 40-50 opening. If it can get the Trek fanbase back, the legs will be there to get it to 150 or so.

"I might be wrong, but I might be right!"

I think it would be better if you kept Star Trek out of it and made a club out of Avatar dissapointing. But regardless this is a brave club.

I do think Avatar will dissapoint somewhat - though it should be able to do $200-$250m. I'd say it will be more of a King Kong size dissapointment.

Absolutely not.

You know what'd be a hilarious and depressing upset? Alvin > Avatar.

That may be more likely, considering how well received Alvin 1 was amongst the kiddies.

no fucking way

Trek $301m, Avatar $300m. In.

No, seriously, if Cameron delivers, which he does pretty much always (*fingers crossed* ) and Trek does what i think it will (max $200m) then i can't see Trek winning. Much will also depend on Fox's marketing, i hope they can get people excited. Of course Trek has higher buzz at the moment, with already 2 trailers released and coming out 7 months earlier. As for the 3d limiting where it can be shown, as i understand it Avatar will also be released in regular theaters, so no disadvantage there, to the contrary.

The problem with saying Avatar disappoints is that the term is too loose to apply. Gross less than Jim's last film TITANIC. Sure. Does that make it a disappointment? Nope.

If the love story angle sticks, I see a gross anywhere from $300 Million to $500 Million, depending on any award run.

Avatar actually has a heavy chance of disappointing.
Not many people know about it and its the kind of film to flop.
If it isn't well received, wow, it'll be a terrible winter season but it's the kind of film people would most likely skip?
I don't know the exact wording but, many a film expected to do well, has had underwhelming numbers as the audiences failed to connect with it and also partly because the movie plain sucked. This is one most likely of 09 to fall into this trap.
Now, the entire movie industry is banking on this so it has to do well.
That's a lot of pressure and then there's Titanic but maybe Cameron has lost his touch being away for so long.
Right now, still out, but we'll see. The trailer should speak volumes.

Impossible. I am sure we will see tons of "director of titanic" ads. That will bring in audience for sure.

At worst it will make 200M+ with winter legs. Star trek will be lucky to make 100M in the crowded may. I am expecting it to bomb.

You're first two sentences run counter to your last.

Average moviegoers don't know about it because well, there isn't a trailer out. Once that trailer hits and the "from the director of the #1 Film Of All-Time" shows up on the screen, I think this thread will be rendered pointless.

Im not entirely sold on Avatar. For all I know it could become Camerons own version of AI. I dont think Star Trek could make that much money either. Ill go with C stating that Transformers 2 will outgross ST,Angels&Demons and Avatar combined

avatar is gonna be king kong jr, but it will still make atleast 75 million more than trek.

Eh, anyone else who doesn't think that $200 million would be disappointing at all for Avatar?

I think 200m would be good, but Kong good.

I do expect it to do very well though, although that's with the hope that it looks as incredible as I imagine.

If the trailer shows up and it looks mind blowing, then it will be rendered so.

Quite possible.

In.

Last Star Trek film $43 m.

Last James Cameron film wide release: $601 m

Even if Avatar is disappointing, it'll have December to help. Star Trek is opening in May, so its likely a 1 week only show...

Avatar is going to be amazing. It's James Cameron. And it's sci-fi. If those two don't mix well then I don't know what does.

Star Trek looks mediocre (IMO) from the trailer, even though the reaction seems to be good, but the name Star Trek is a repellent more than a draw. As the last film proved, the fanbase doesn't care that much about it either.

No way this happens.

I think the fanbase cares or they wouldn't rush out so much. But there are less of them.

I don't think the James Cameron name means as much as you think it does anymore. It's been a long time since Titanic, and his name didn't mean anything on his documentarys, Dark Angel, or Strange Days.

Sci-Fi at Christmas historically doesn't work. I'm glad at least one brave soul is joining me on this lonely quest.

His name definitely has pedigree. Doesn't mean the film will do crazy numbers, but I think $310 million is a pretty solid number, because the film will definitely be something new and marketed like crazy. Inflated King Kong if it came out a week later.

King Kong had Peter Jackson and almost universal name recognition, and Jackson was coming directly off Lord of the Rings. It had a lot of buzz, great special effects, and was too long. Cameron's movies usually hit all three of those marks.

Whatever happens against Trek, there's no way it even sniffs 300 million. King Kong numbers are about right. I'm imagining a pretty big failure though.

Not gonna happen. No matter what you think of Avatar, you have to consider the fact that Fox put a LOT of money and faith into this film. They will market the living HELL out of it and tickets will be more expensive for it too because of the Digital 3D factor. It is a lock for at the very least $150 million, whereas Star Trek will likely not reach that.

Jackson isn't much different from Cameron on name recognition. And Lecter is right, this is too big a project. Fox will push it for all it's worth.