Eh. Tbh I'm not disappointed with either. Star Trek isn't doing HUGE numbers but not bad at all. And Hangover 3 deserves the decrease, although I am a little surprised it actually did decrease that much.

I doubt HO3 will make much OS, and there is still a decent chance that HO3 might not even make 100 million that to me would make it the biggest disappointment of the summer.

Anyone who saw Hangover 2 and was therefore aware of just how awful it was, should not be surprised at the performance of Hangover 3 - - it's a case study in "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me".

Star Trek 2, to me, was certainly the bigger surprise.

Hangover 3 recieved bad WOM out of the gate, was following up another film that wasn't particularly well-received (part 2 wasn't hated, per se, but it didn't really leave an impact like the original did in '09), and competed with an especially lucrative film franchise that has more appeal to young-adult audiences.

Might I add, the advertisements made the movie seem aimless. Why make a sequel to the Hangover when there's no actual hangover, you know?

Star Trek seemed to have way more things in its favor; positive early WOM, J.J. Abrams, following up one of the best-received blockbusters of the last 5 years, and no competition. Though it's not entirely difficult to make sense of why it has underwhelmed, notwithstanding those factors.

You can say people shouldn't be as disappointed with Star Trek: Into Darkness, but they are, and moreso than Hangover 3.

In the context of this thread, it's interesting to revisit these two threads...

The Hangover III Predictions

Star Trek 2 predictions

The predictions for Hangover III were certainly optimistic, but mostly in the $150-200m range - - whereas predictions for STiD were outright ecsatatic, more typically $350-500m.

Here's a couple of sample quotes...

Gotta' love Brad boy.

I'd say the bigger disappointment out of the 2 is Star Trek 2 because it was expected to top its predecessor with 4 years of inflation and additional 3D.

I definitely expected for Hangover 3 to disappoint because WB idiotically released it against Fast Six where they could have released it the week after Memorial Day.

Here are my thoughts. OW wise ST came out as a bigger disappointment to me. As for H3 OW wise it is big disappointment but its definitely not bigger than STID IMO. Financially I believe H3 will decrease in OS markets from H2 whereas STID is seeing a healthy increase, so H3 is definitely a bigger disappointment.

All in all I am torn between expectations and drop. If I go by my expectations than STID is a bigger disappointment but in terms of sequel drop predictions I'd say H3 is a bigger disappointment of the two.

This is the Merriam-Webster Dictionary definition of the word:

: to fail to meet the expectation or hope of : frustrate <the team disappointed its fans>

So by the actual defination, we must go by expectations, and frustration, both of which apply much more heavily to Star Trek; Into Darkness.

STID is a relative disappointment. There are many factors that led to STID's under performance that should be taken in to account before passing judgement onto the film's box office performance. 1st off the STID had Iron Man3 take a lot of the pent up demand for action film away and audiences are generally very pleased with it, and GG was a much bigger success than most predicted. When Star Trek came out 4 years ago the film only opened after Wolverine which opened with less than half of Iron Man 3 and was generally viewed as terrible. So there was more pent up means for a big film. 2nd of all Star Trek (2009) had incredible marketing. One could argue that ST had the best marketing of summer 2009. The film looked fresh, epic and exciting. ST brought the Star Trek franchise a huge sense of scope and renewed energy. When Wolerine disappointed (at least quality wise) the door was left open for ST to over perform. STID while strong in quality, had decent but not spectacular marketing. The descion to try to hide the identity of one of the franchise's biggest villains made the film just look like a regular action film to Trekkies and more of the same to general audiences. Also take into account the very light completion that ST faced in 09. ST's sophomore weekend competion was Angels and Demons(which ST almost beat out in that weekend). In fact ST had no strong action competion until Transformer 2, nearly 6 months after the film's debut. Had ST opened in a more competive summer the film's total would have been closer to 220 mil. Many films with strong WOM that have lighter than expected competition (Iron Man, to name one) end up having bloated box totals that their sequel's (excluding Iron Man 3's AVENGER effect) have trouble matching. I would argue STID's sophomore hold is close to as impressive as any of ST's box office weekends.

Correction: 6 weeks after ST's opening weekend

+ the 4 year wait was way to long. The kind of direct action sequel that would've done 325+ in 2011

HANGOVER 3 opened below GREAT GATSBY, nuff said...

Then again, that is not the decisive factor here. The Great Gatsby HUGELY overperformed. I'd argue the difference between expectations and performance (no matter in which direction) is larger for Gatsby than for The Hangover III.

I think Gatsby is doing right in line with expectations, most expected a mid 30s open and a 130-140 close. It's just doing it with a larger opening, but with worse legs.

I don't think either Hangover III or STID will either be the biggest disappointment of the summer, let alone the year, Die Hard and Oblivion are already pretty hard to beat.

This man says the truth!, however I would also add Jack and the Giant Slayer on the BO disappointments of the year

Lok at the predictions for Oblivion prior to its release and then at the predictions for STID and The Hangover III prior to their releases and try to repeat that statement.

You want my honest reply, read what I said earlier.

Most people expected 120 for Oblivion and 450 WW for it, the fact that it might not hit 300 WW, disappointing in America, OS, and reviews makes it pretty hard to beat.

STID, there were more than enough reasonable expectations for it, not predictions. I believe tracking had it at a sub 90 million opening almost a month before, and more than a few predictions in the 230-280 million range. And even those that thought 300 million was a possibility, no one thought it would do more than 200 OS. It's having solid legs, great WOM, and will make it's budget back in another 2 weeks. and it's going to make more money then the original when all is said and done. Being disappointed on the degree of success does not make it a disappointment.

Hangover III had the widest gap of projected gross. From 80-170 million. Everyone knew it would drop off, any everyone knew that F&F would eat into, but to what degree. It should be able to fall in the middle of the spectrum, making it of course the easiest disappointment of the year. It also has weak WOM, and we'll have to wait where it falls overseas. Obviously it will make a profit too.

I find this whole thread beyond stupid. Neither film will be a financial disappointment, STID is not a disappointment film wise, so the majority of people in this thread are really talking about "Surprise factor" to constitute what makes a disappointment now. Don't make me laugh. It's not about money, and it's not about reviews. All that matters is people crying over a well received film not have a 100% increase over the original. There are caps, there are limits. I have an entire thread devoted to this.

Yes it does.

Contradiction alert!

I'll be sure to look out for one!

The poll currently shows that 13 of my fellow KJer's must have simply had an incredibly misguided optimism for the BO success of Hangover III.

Since there was little overt evidence of this optimism in prediction threads, I can only imagine how those 13 must have secretly been harboring the belief that it's BO would somehow miraculously take off... and of course, conversely how they must now be suffering some mighty hidden pain from this bigger disappointment.

My deepest sympathies.

I looked back and saw that YOU predicted $160 million for Oblivion, so obviously it was a major disappointment to you, thus making it seem to you, like it was a huge disappointments overall. However, two things:

First of all, I thought this was pretty clear, but let's say it - this thread is on domestic only. No need to bring overseas performance into it.

Second: here are the Oblivion predictions from the Oblivion predictions threead:

BJ - $201 million
thegun - $160 million
Tuukka - 150+ million
Algren - $150 million
Riggs - $130 million
BPM - $120 million
Jack Sparrow - sub-$100 million
MadGez - $80 million
El Murato - $75-90 million

So there was quite a range to those predictions. The average was around $120 million, though, yes. It wil, in the end, deviate by around 26% from that average.

Let's look at Star Trek

The average prediction for its total gross from the last four pages of the Star Trek 2 predictions thread was $341 million. There wasn't a single prediction in there that had it make less than the 2009 film. And it looks like it will miss that predicted average by $10 million.

Do the math.

Thanks.