Well, I'm still pessimistic about King Kong, just because I don't want to be disappointed (but, it's really tempting to have high expectations since this is the guy who did LOTR and did that so well ^.^)

And Narnia I dunno, it seems that $250m would be a shoe-in, but I thought Lemony would have no problem with $200m either this time last year...

BUT

December films have amazing legs, even crappy films show good legs. So these films really needs opening of 'just' $40-50m to have a good shot at it.


What do you think? It'd be the first time ever that 2 December films passed $250m in one year.


Oh, and those two films together would be the biggest thing out of December since Titanic in 1997.

It's more complicated than that:

November 9th:
The New World

November 11th:
Jarhead
Rent

November 18th:
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
Walk the Line

November 23rd:
Zathura

December 9th:
Underworld: Evolution
Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe

December 14th:
King Kong

When King Kong is released there will be at least 4 children/family targeted films released including Narnia, Zathura, Harry Potter and undoubtably some Christmas movie which hasn't been announced yet (hehe). If not more.

I think Potter will be the big winner through Thanksgiving and most of December, with Kong pulling up second... I think there are a lot of Peter Jackson fans and spectacle plus the memory of Lord of the Rings will drive people to go see it. Everybody knows who Jackson is.

Kong and Narnia are going to rely HEAVILY on reviews and audience word of mouth more than anything to get past $150 million, although I see Narnia pulling 2nd place through the end of the year. There is no doubt in my mind that Kong will rule on the 14th even if it sucks. I don't suspect it will.

I don't think Kong could easily fail, mostly because I think that there is a certain level of quality to the director and the production involved after delivering great product since 2001 to December cinemas. I also don't think there's the Lemmony Snicket confusion... this is PG-13.

Narnia is a big question mark though, I still think it can easily go the Peter Pan route. Disney, unproven director (for live action), screenwriter, relatively unknown cast, the fact that this reeks of a Lord of the Rings rip off (which in cinema, almost never strike lightning twice...)....

As much as I love WETA, do you think Jackson has his best people farmed out to King Kong or Narnia? Not Narnia I bet.

Narnia will not do over $250 million. Neither will King Kong. King Kong will do over $200 million, and Narnia will do around $180 million.

I agree with that Zing... quite a lot.

Narnia $180
Kong $220ish
Potter $240ish

Narnia XXXXXX, easily has the worst title for a movie in recent memory.

Both will die at around 150 mil.

Box, as for Peter Jackson directing King Kong, does he even have a $50 mil. grosser other than LOTR movies. PJ will be evaluated in the next few movies.

bleh :x

350m Narnia

250m King Kong

280m HP4

three massive grosses over a 1-1/2 month period sounds like a great year to me 8)

I recall in early/mid 2001 reading a newspaper article here in Oz which pitted the Harry Potter gang vs the LOTR gang in a end of year preview. I get a similar feeling this year - Kong vs Narnia will be big - but on a scale or two lower than those two juggernaughts.

I think Kong's release date is better as its closer to Christmas. Narnia's is a bit more hit and miss.

I see Kong opening to about $45m and finishing with about $230m, while Narnia opens to about $35m and finishes up with about $225m.

Together they could get anywhere between $450m and $550m.

In recent years the top 2 December films have totalled as follows:

2004 - Fockers + No.2 film ($400m??)
2003 - ROTK + Cheaper ($500m)
2002 - TTT + Chicago ($500m+)
2001 - FOTR + Oceans 11 ($400m)
2000 - Castaway + Women Want ($400m+)

So its not a big ask for Narnia and Kong to combine and make $500m. I guess it will depend on quality, competition, marketing etc.

And Box - lay it on me bro - who is that in your avatar!!?? Im sure youve been asked before but ive missed it. Thanks!

Both films are being overpredicted. If anything, Narnia will rule. I highly doubt Kong will do over 150m, maybe 130m.

I couldn't agree more. Just because some director got lucky with a 300 million trilogy doesnt mean a remake of a movie that doesnt really have a fanbase following will at least take 200 million. The guy is 44 years old and has over 15 years of directing experience and his only movies that made over 50 million dollars are the LOTR trilogy.

Exactly. And I am not being pessitic here, guys. PJ will bring money. It WILL make 100m dollars, but it isn't going to be another Lord of the Rings. You guys are overpredicting these two by tens, if not over a hundred million dollars. Need I remind everyone of Troy? Van Helsing? Day After Tommorow? I, Robot? Nearly everyone was either predicting 200m+ for each of these, or in I, Robot's case 70m. Sorry, but you will be sorely dissapointed when it happens AGAIN.

I agree that all those films were overpredicted. I predicted $170m for Helsing, $300m for Troy, $230m for Day but $140m spot on for I Robot.

However, these two films have far less competition and the December period allows for greater room for recovery unlike the summer where if you stumble out of the gate you pretty much die. Plus Kong and Narnia do have solid fanbases.

We'll see though - these films can bomb no doubt but they could also be huge.

New Zealand isn't the ideal place for pursuing a movie making carrer, you know. LOTR was really the first time he had the money for a big budget spectacle (The Frighteners wasn't exactly big budget) and the movie making freedom to do his thing with the money and look what happened.


How many are expecting it to be? If it makes a dollar over $200m i'll be very pleased. $100m is a lock and $150m very likely IMHO.

Michael J Fox was still quite a big star back then yet the movie had a 30 million budget but only made $16 million in total. Its one of Michael J Fox's lower grossing movie since Casualties of War. I dont get how people just suddenly see Peter Jackson as this messiah when he didnt receive much praise for his work on Heavenly Creatures or Frighteners

The Frighteners tanked, so what. I've read the studio wasn't pushing it like they could have and they were messing around with it so it wasn't purely the movie's fault. I remember watching it on TV before LOTR came out and you could tell this man has talent. I liked it. Besides, even the best of the best have their fare share of flops in their career, again, so what.

People have great faith in PJ simply because of the stunning work he's done with LOTR. What is there so hard to understand? You don't create such a masterpiece out of luck. This man is very good at what he's doing. Not many could have pulled it of in a similar way or even better (yikes, my bad english ), you can be sure of that.

PJ is as little a messiah as, i dunno, Spielberg is.

And you're wrong about Heavenly Creatures, it did at least get an Oscar nomination for the screenplay, so it wasn't totally unpraised.

ALESSANDRA AMBROSIO

My prediction

Narnia- 220
King Kong-280-290

So I say a 500m total together.

Sorry, but this ain't gonna be LOTR.... :wink:

King Kong:

This movie will disappoint many folks. Seriously, anytime I think of it, Hulk comes up to my head Sure, King Kong will do better, much better. Having a "From the director of The Lord of the Rings" in the ads must be one of the most effective marketings ever and will help it immensly. The release date is good and the anticipation as well as the hype are all there. I expect it to open big, however, not to last long. It should easily grab a $55-65 million opening, but will struggle past $215 million for total in my opinion. I expect a huge 2nd weekend drop, due to immense frontloadness.

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe:

This has tons of potential, but after the disappointing results of Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events, I'd be cautios to call it a $250+ million lock now. The books are next to LOTR and Harry Potter some of the best-selling ever with over 60-70 million copies sold. The production values look great and the release date is perfect for this film. Expect a good opening with around $40-45 million, but great legs. I think it will make around $250-270 million, but I wouldn't call it a lock, yet.

Bullshit. He was not a draw. He hasn't been a draw since Back to the Future.


Oscar nomination? Discovery of Kate Winslet?

Neither will make it.

Chronicles of Narnia: $195 million
King Kong: $124 million

One thing I tell you now. The Chronciles of Narnia will break $200 million. Mark my words on that one.

If anything, that is the only thing I think will happen. Watch, guys, King Kong won't make 200m.... :?

There is a chance that King Kong won't make it, but I think it will, riding on Jackson's name alone

I know its not. I still think that it will pass 200 though, but I highly doubt 300m.