The BOM forums are living proof.

Just when I want to leave I have to post again so as not to be stuck with that avatar.

Yeah BOM is the only current place where anything associated with comic books gets at least a 100 million dollar prediction even Ghost Rider, its also the only place where people laugh at you for predicting Transformers to gross under 200 million. Its like the place is trapped in a time warp. I know they will think that another He-man movie would make 200 million

shack, what is your opening day/opening weekend/opening 5 day/opening week predicts?

Considering the size of the fanbase for both X-MEN and SPIDERMAN with SPIDERMAN probably larger, that would make the suppose fanbase for SUPERMAN look tiny in comparison which doesn't bode well for the movie when you consider what both SPIDERMAN and X-MEN have grossed Domestically....

BKB

SHACK

what would take to make think this could get 250 million a the us boxofifce?

No, no, no.


Huh? If anything, I'd argue the marketing has been mediocore to poor Magnus. The reactions have the general audience have been bad, there hasn't been as much interest built up in the real world as there should be. You say everything but the trailers, but how you can you disregard the trailers? They're very important, and Superman hasn't exceeded in that category.


Pirates will take away any boost that would've gaven it, and more. It'll just drop harder.


Batman had the fanbase. Hulk had the fanbase. Superman doesn't really gain an advantage there. Interent fanboys? Like da torri said, that makes up about 1% of the gross.


What are you smoking? The last Superman movie was in 1987, which is like half a generation back. Even Superman 1 was in 1978, which is still about 1 full generation.


It still has the same situation Batman had, where it's coming off a bunch of crappily received sequels that put a bad taste in everyone's mouth. In a way, redefining the character might have been a good thing, because the last time a Superman movie came out people really didn't like it.


Once again, you're pulling dumb and false facts out of mid-air. Superman is definitley not bigger now than he was in the 70s, it's not even close. Superman owned the 70s, just like Batman owning the 80s, and Spider-Man and X-Men owning the present.


Do you honestly believe miniscule things like that will help it's gross any? The Death of Superman thing was over 10 years ago. People don't care, and don't remember it. Lois and Clark was a joke, it pushed him into ridicoule more than anything else. Smallville is a crappy WB soap, the viewers are much to small to have any effect on pop-culture, the show isn't exactly a household name.

Anyways Magnus, once again, calling Superman a lock for 200 mil is a really sinking down to a level that I know you're above. Ice Age 2 failed to have a 3 multiplier, X3 broke the Friday record, MI:3 opened with 47 mil. If this year has taught us anything, it's that the word lock is tossed around far too much. And this isn't even a hard situation when it comes to that, the movie is clearly not a lock for that. It's just not.

...

You wanna know what I think? I think the buzz isn't any higher than what Batman Begins had, and it's guaranteed that it's legs will be about half as good. That's what I'm seeing out of Superman Returns right now.

I still think it will do between $200-240 mil

It won't have long legs... sure... maybe a 3 multiplier... but no more. It has HUGE competition. So, unless it opens with around $100 mil... then it has no shot at $300 mil

Trailers ARE important but they were not BAD and the tv spots are GREAT.Reactions are bad, then why is superman so friggin high on many public polls?

-pirates takes away advantage and itll drop harder? explainpirates cannot take away any money it makes on monday or tuesday. drop harder-it has more time build up good wom.

-superman gains A TON there cause he has a way bigger fanbase then batman did at this point last year. Hulk isnt even worth comparing. supermans fanbase is bigger right now then spidermans s was in march/april of 2002 and that is true and dont bother deneying because it maks no sense common sense tells supermans is the bigger character a month before their movie opened.

-first of all, 1987 is 19 years ago. thats 2 decades. second of all, none saw and nooneknows it exists. then yougo back to 1983-23 years ago and again nobody knows it exists. when a movie is 15 years old you hardly remember it, let alone a bomb like those 2. in 2012 will anybody be remembering batman & robin? you then go onto say the death of superman is 10 years ago n noone rembers it but they SOMEHOW REMEMBER SUPERMAN 3 n 4 BEING 19 AND 23 YEARS OLD???you made an aweful point that condradict what you say next. superman fanbase is one of kind and the only hero that could possibly rival it is spiderman. why? superman's fanbase is ALWAYS growing cause little kid like the character so easily. so yeah he does have a huge fanbase.

huh? this opens on a wednesday, itll easily geta multiplier over 3. 4 will be hard to get, but not 3.

I'm a Patient Man and I look forward to this blowing up in your face.. Just don't bail out of here like Raziel did when I proved KING KONG was gonna underperform..

bkb your a dumbass. imnot boutto listen to someone who thinks tie ins do nothign for one film but automatically make it huge for another film.

Excel:

At this point I don't think anything could convince that it'll make 250 mil, it's close enough to the release that all the signs are already in place. It's released most of it's trailers, the reactions have come, the early interest factors are there. Honestly, I don't believe anything will really turn me at this point, though if the buzz and marketing becomes huge, I would consider 200 possibly.

And my current predicts would look like this:

Wednesday: 17.7 mil
Thursday: 9.8(-44%)
Friday: 16.7(+70%)
Saturday: 20.1(+20%)
Sunday: 16.5(-18%)

OW(3-day): 53.4 million
OW(5-day): 80.9 million

My dailies are a bit rough, but for the most part that's what I expect out of the 3-day and 5-day.

you got lucky on one call...wow.

well, that isnt as bad as i was expecting. that said itll beat batman opening by way more then 5 million. thids one has the kid audience plus the public doesnt remember how bad its last film was. right now the superman franchise isnt the joke the batman franchise was in may/early june 2005.

I wish you still had your RT account, BKB. Unfortunately I cant post any of your messages because I got some nasty PM last time I did. Theres an extreme love for Superman there

When the film happens to be SPIDERMAN III a year in advance?? YES, I do think it will be Huge and WB only wishes deep down that there movie will even do a fraction of what SPIDERMAN III will do..

It seems the only REAL love for SUPERMAN at RT is from Red Beard who's practically obsessed with the character and movie, sort of like Hmmm Excel is.. Makes you wonder if there the same poster??

im not obsessed...i just think its funny you uys are stupid bout this particular movie.

Awww, now come on Excel.. Were not any more stupid about this movie than any other Summer movie.. You just need to relax a bit..

Here's how Supes WILL go down...

Opening Wednesday- $22.9 mil
Thursday- $14.2 mil
Friday- $23.7 mil
Saturday- $25.1 mil
Sunday- $18.2 mil

Opening Weekend (3-day)- $67.0 mil
Opening Weekend (5-day)- $104.1 mil

2nd Weekend- $27.1 mil (60% drop)

Total- $208.9 mil (Slightly over 3 multiplier)

wotw got 2.25 while batman got 2.85

if as good as i think it wll be,superman should get about 2.5 despite compititon due to inlfated monday and tuesday.

but supes main audience being kids erased any chance it has a 5-day-to-total multiplier of 2.

Just because you don't see it, it doesn't mean it's not there. I do most of my PotC fangirling on the PotC forums I'm on, so I tend not to go all fangirlish here on WoKJ. But no matter. I plan on posting a bunch of stuff in the PotC thread as soon as I get my merchandise pages done on my new PotC fansite. There's quite a bit out there, so it's taking a while to compile.

No, as far as I know, there are no PotC underwear, but that's fine with me. I've never understood the need to have designs on underwear when no one's gonna see them... T-shirts are better for advertising your favorite movie, and when it comes to T-shirts for PotC.... well, just go to any Hot Topic, and you'll see quite a few.

And actually, we have, from a certain POV, two TV spots--we had the Superbowl spot (which, of course, means it reached a MUCH larger audience than any regular TV spot would do) and then we have a regular spot. A Depp board I'm on got transcripts for 5 different PotC spots, so I'm expecting those will show up soon.

And we've got an M&Ms commercial now, too. And we have tie-ins with Skittles, Starburst, and coming soon, McDonald's. My friend works for McD's and said that Cars is the next tie-in and that PotC will be after that. Oh, and we've got Lunchables, and a cereal (which has been selling for several months already) and gummy snacks, as well as chocolate coins and chocolate "cannonballs". Ah, and there's Kodak, too, now, as well as Best Buy.

And of course there are the typical things like RPG toys (cutlasses and pistols and dress-up kits), dolls, action figures, Megabloks sets, handheld pinball games, Monopoly and Game of Life and Liar's Dice and a DVD game and Chess. And of course there're all the cool things at Hot Topic and Claire's, including pens, buttons/pins, postcards, necklaces, stickers, patches, diaries, wallets, notebooks, folders, and more. And of course the books, which include a seven (may be more; but only seven are listed on Amazon) book series of books about a teenage Jack (books that are far better written than I expected for a 9-12 age range), the Jr. novel (we're still waiting for Disney realize that adults are fans, too, and give us a novel a la the Star Wars novelizations), coloring/activity books, storybooks, a Visual Guide, a Look and Find book (a la Where's Waldo?), puzzles, and more. Oh, and the party supplies are supposed to be showing up at places like Wal*Mart within the next week or so; I know Toys 'R' Us already has the wrapping paper and gift bags.

So, there ya go. And that's just a summary.

So, yes, the PotC fans are around, but we're just not as vocal. But PotC DOES have the tie-ins; we're just not as quick to post because, well, frankly we're all still getting accustomed to actually *having* PotC merchandise, since Disney "missed the boat" for the first movie.

Joy

tina_als_girl is to Pirates what excel is to Superman.

This thread gives me headaches.