NBA Predictions: Conference Semis (w/ 1st Round scores)
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TonyMontana
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I just want to say that I've learned a lot from DP07 and Killumanati... should the Pistons lose the series, I can say that the Spurs were lucky and undeserving. The Pistons are extremely distracted by Larry Brown leaving the organization and the Cleveland rumors. Not to mention the terrible officiating and conspiracy that has been alleged that David Stern does not want to see the Pistons repeat.
"If only the Spurs faced the Pistons with no distractions and extra players (the refs) on their team!", I'll say. Then I can get into the random coin flip thing too.
Wow, my team never has to really lose anymore!!!! It's always "luck" or "random chance"!
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Thu Jun 09, 2005 6:15 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
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TonyMontana wrote: Killuminati510 wrote: Theres no way Pistons are winning in the finals with all those easy shots they miss numerous times, it's pathetic. They're so lucky they beat the Heat, it seems they always get lucky with a big name on the other team getting injured. Spurs will take this one 4-2 What are you talking about? Last year they beat the full strength Pacers (the best record in the East) and the full strength Lakers (the best team in the West). This year the only starter to miss a game, was Wade's single game that he sat out. That's it. Are you trying to rewrite history now? That was last year. If you want i'd make a sig bet with you, if Spurs win you put Killuminati is the king of all & Xbox sucks ass.
I wonder if Pistons will blame the refs again when they lose to Spurs 
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Thu Jun 09, 2005 6:19 pm |
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TonyMontana
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Killuminati510 wrote: TonyMontana wrote: Killuminati510 wrote: Theres no way Pistons are winning in the finals with all those easy shots they miss numerous times, it's pathetic. They're so lucky they beat the Heat, it seems they always get lucky with a big name on the other team getting injured. Spurs will take this one 4-2 What are you talking about? Last year they beat the full strength Pacers (the best record in the East) and the full strength Lakers (the best team in the West). This year the only starter to miss a game, was Wade's single game that he sat out. That's it. Are you trying to rewrite history now? That was last year. If you want i'd make a sig bet with you, if Spurs win you put Killuminati is the king of all & Xbox sucks ass. I wonder if Pistons will blame the refs again when they lose to Spurs 
The Pistons blaming the refs, and the media claiming it was the Larry Brown distractions that caused the Pistons to lose a couple times was a low point. I make no excuses for my team, and that was low class. Miami deserved the credit. I am sure the media will point to the Larry Brown thing over and over again, especially if the Pistons start losing. And, I don't think that is fair at all.
I wonder who the Spurs will blame when they lose? Or how once again they'll turn this around to the Pistons being lucky. My guess is that we'll find out Duncan isn't 100%, or their are distractions on the team (like Tony Parker's girlfriend in the stands)? As much as I'd like to believe that the Pistons will finally get some credit, I know it won't happen. I've been saying that since last year thinking every new win would finally do it (the Pacers, the Lakers, the Heat, etc...) to no avail.
And, yes... I'll take your signature when the Pistons win, and you may have mine in the random odd chance that the Spurs get lucky.
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Thu Jun 09, 2005 6:27 pm |
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Rev
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Piss-tons getting their arse beaten STARTS TONIGHT!!! \:D/
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Thu Jun 09, 2005 6:33 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
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My god Tony, I don't have time to respond to all of this right now, probably after the game. However, I've never said it's only random chance! I said chance plays a role big or small. The whole "coin flip thing" as you call it, might not be the best example, which is my fault. However, it's simple. When something is more complicated (or there is greater number of whatever you're looking at) chance plays less of a role. I never said all injuries are entirely chance (certainly not over the course of a career), but the exact timing of any particular injury is.
If they played 5 minutes of basketball to determine the NBA champ, the weaker team would probably win over 45% of the time (note, I don't say 50% as quality does still play a role). If one game determined the winner, chance would determine the result many times. In a 7 game basketball series, chance usually will not determine the winner. If they had a 25 game series, the likelihood of chance determining the result would be even smaller: almost nil. That's what I've been saying.
If a player misses 2 free throws in a row, will you conclude they suck just based on that? What if they miss 50? What's the difference? The more free throws, the less chance plays a role.
If a top team from the pervious year starts a season 1-3 would you conclude they deserve to go to the lottery? What if they start out 10-30?
If you kill bABA once in Halo, does that prove you are superior? What about after you kill him the 100th straight time? :razz:
I could go on forever. This isn't some theory, it's a fact, and it applies to the basic way in which everything works. I'm sorry for giving a rather poor example with the coin.
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Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:01 pm |
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Jmart
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Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 8:47 am Posts: 21230 Location: Massachusetts
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Damnit, I forgot to make a prediction. Well, even though the game is in the third quarter, I'll still make one since the game is somewhat close, and I can't really gauge how this one will end.
SPURS in 7
It should be a very fun, and very low scoring series.
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Thu Jun 09, 2005 11:07 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
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1-0 Spurs, one step closer to an easy finals victory.
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Fri Jun 10, 2005 12:06 am |
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TonyMontana
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It was a good game for 3 quarters. Manu kicked ass in the 4th, and singlehandedly won it for SA... very impressive. I thought Tony Parker looked bad, and was not impressed at all with him.
Detroit looked horrible offensively the entire game (even when they were up by 13), but SA had a large part to do with that. It looks like it'll be a long series.
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Fri Jun 10, 2005 12:28 am |
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Rev
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\:D/ \:D/ \:D/ \:D/ :wink:
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Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:38 am |
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TonyMontana
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DP07 wrote: My god Tony, I don't have time to respond to all of this right now, probably after the game. However, I've never said it's only random chance! I said chance plays a role big or small. The whole "coin flip thing" as you call it, might not be the best example, which is my fault. However, it's simple. When something is more complicated (or there is greater number of whatever you're looking at) chance plays less of a role. I never said all injuries are entirely chance (certainly not over the course of a career), but the exact timing of any particular injury is.
If they played 5 minutes of basketball to determine the NBA champ, the weaker team would probably win over 45% of the time (note, I don't say 50% as quality does still play a role). If one game determined the winner, chance would determine the result many times. In a 7 game basketball series, chance usually will not determine the winner. If they had a 25 game series, the likelihood of chance determining the result would be even smaller: almost nil. That's what I've been saying.
If a player misses 2 free throws in a row, will you conclude they suck just based on that? What if they miss 50? What's the difference? The more free throws, the less chance plays a role.
If a top team from the pervious year starts a season 1-3 would you conclude they deserve to go to the lottery? What if they start out 10-30?
If you kill bABA once in Halo, does that prove you are superior? What about after you kill him the 100th straight time? :razz:
I could go on forever. This isn't some theory, it's a fact, and it applies to the basic way in which everything works. I'm sorry for giving a rather poor example with the coin.
What I'm confused about is you were using the chance theory to claim why the Pistons did not deserve their championship. Which, I guess I could understand had they had a poor record throughout the year, didn't go anywhere in the year before, or the year after. However, the Pistons went to the conference finals the two years prior to going to the finals last year, and they're in the finals this year. In this case, their history shows a pattern of winning, and consistency. They are not flash in the pan - or lucky winners - as some deem. For 4 years in a row now they've been at the top - or near the top - of the league.
I don't think they get credit because of their style of play. The Pistons style of play is downright ugly. Last night for example they looked uglier than usual, shooting 38%, missing layups and open jumpers for the entire game. The beauty of the Pistons, is they frequently make the other team look just as ugly - as they did with SA for 3 quarters - which gives them a shot to win it. It was a 2 point game in the 4th quarter last night, before the Pistons gave out and Manu went to work.
I understand what you are saying about a weaker team being able to win a game, as was the case last night. :wink: But, I don't think this in any way applies to the Pistons or their championship (or return to the finals) as they have been consistently winning for 4 years now.
As for last nights game, I was very impressed with San Antonio's defense, but I honestly think that SA looks like an easier opponent than Miami. Detroit will not shoot 38% every night, and Duncan does not pose near the problem that Shaq did for us in the last round. Detroit played it's worst game I have seen in the entire playoff run so far, and was still within 2 points in the 4th quarter on SA's home court. The entire game came down to that "blocking call" where Manu lowered his shoulder and ran into a standing still Ben Wallace. It was a 2 point game there, SA got a tech free-throw and the ball giving them a 5 point lead, and Detroit fell apart after that. Even though they lost, I still feel pretty good about the series.
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Fri Jun 10, 2005 12:03 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
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Spurs play better on the road.
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Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:16 pm |
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Rev
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1 down \:D/ 3 to go 
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Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:17 pm |
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TonyMontana
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Killuminati510 wrote: Spurs play better on the road.
San Antonio plays much better at home. They have a 21-20 record on the road this year and a 38-3 at home. By comparison the Pistons have a 22-19 record on the road and a 32-9 record at home.
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Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:20 pm |
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Rev
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TonyMontana wrote: Killuminati510 wrote: Spurs play better on the road. San Antonio plays much better at home. They have a 21-20 record on the road this year and a 38-3 at home. By comparison the Pistons have a 22-19 record on the road and a 32-9 record at home.
what about during the PLAYOFFS?
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Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:22 pm |
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Anonymous
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Killuminati510 wrote: Spurs play better on the road.
How you got that?
Hone 38-3
Away 21-20
And if you mean playoffs, don't think it's good to make that conclusion after games versus 3 teams. Also, they lost two in Seattle.
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Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:28 pm |
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TonyMontana
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revolutions wrote: TonyMontana wrote: Killuminati510 wrote: Spurs play better on the road. San Antonio plays much better at home. They have a 21-20 record on the road this year and a 38-3 at home. By comparison the Pistons have a 22-19 record on the road and a 32-9 record at home. what about during the PLAYOFFS?
Spurs play slightly better at home... 7-2 at home, 6-2 on the road.
Detroit plays much better at home... they are 7-2 at home and 5-5 on the road.
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Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:31 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
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2-0 for Spurs #-o :razz:
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Mon Jun 13, 2005 3:46 am |
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TonyMontana
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Not to take anything away from the Spurs, who have played very well... but, the Pistons look utterly horrible so far. They missed 10 shots from less than 4 feet by halftime, and very few were contested. This is by far and away the worst I've seen them play in a long time. Hopefully the change in venue will wake them up. [-o<
And, what the hell is up with the San Antonio PA announcer? That is the worst, most whiney guy I have ever heard. I about die laughing when he announces the pregame lineup.
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Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:18 am |
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Jmart
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TonyMontana wrote: Not to take anything away from the Spurs, who have played very well... but, the Pistons look utterly horrible so far. They missed 10 shots from less than 4 feet by halftime, and very few were contested. This is by far and away the worst I've seen them play in a long time. Now, I haven't seen much of the two games that have been played so far (Sox/Cubs), but if I were to guess, I would say that the Spurs are just beating the Pistons at their own game. Both teams are very simliar in their approach. The Spurs have to be doing something very small that is causing the Pistons to be off their game slightly. Even the tiniest thing can throw off a team and that's probably what is happening. Quote: Hopefully the change in venue will wake them up. [-o< Chances are the venue change will do so. I have thought since the beginning of this series, that it was going seven games, and I still think that. I think the Pistons will eventually tie the series in Motown, but eventually lose in 7. Quote: And, what the hell is up with the San Antonio PA announcer? That is the worst, most whiney guy I have ever heard. I about die laughing when he announces the pregame lineup.
Have you listened to your own PA announcer? " DEE-TROIIIT-BASKETBALLLLLLL!". If that isn't the most annoying thing I have ever heard, than I don't know what the hell is. 
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Tue Jun 14, 2005 12:54 pm |
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Rev
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IT'S OVER TONY!!  2-0 :razz: and tonight it's gonna be 3-0. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
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Tue Jun 14, 2005 1:14 pm |
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Chippy
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revolutions wrote: IT'S OVER TONY!!  2-0 :razz: and tonight it's gonna be 3-0. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
You wish
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Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:09 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
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jmart007 wrote: TonyMontana wrote: Not to take anything away from the Spurs, who have played very well... but, the Pistons look utterly horrible so far. They missed 10 shots from less than 4 feet by halftime, and very few were contested. This is by far and away the worst I've seen them play in a long time. Now, I haven't seen much of the two games that have been played so far (Sox/Cubs), but if I were to guess, I would say that the Spurs are just beating the Pistons at their own game. Both teams are very simliar in their approach. The Spurs have to be doing something very small that is causing the Pistons to be off their game slightly. Even the tiniest thing can throw off a team and that's probably what is happening. Basically, Spurs are putting alot of pressure on the Pistons and it's taking them out their game and making them miss the easy shots, Spurs overall are just the better team as of now. They didnt once lose the lead to Pistons in the 2nd game, now thats a championship team
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Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:47 pm |
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TonyMontana
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jmart007 wrote: TonyMontana wrote: Not to take anything away from the Spurs, who have played very well... but, the Pistons look utterly horrible so far. They missed 10 shots from less than 4 feet by halftime, and very few were contested. This is by far and away the worst I've seen them play in a long time. Now, I haven't seen much of the two games that have been played so far (Sox/Cubs), but if I were to guess, I would say that the Spurs are just beating the Pistons at their own game. Both teams are very simliar in their approach. The Spurs have to be doing something very small that is causing the Pistons to be off their game slightly. Even the tiniest thing can throw off a team and that's probably what is happening. Quote: Hopefully the change in venue will wake them up. [-o< Chances are the venue change will do so. I have thought since the beginning of this series, that it was going seven games, and I still think that. I think the Pistons will eventually tie the series in Motown, but eventually lose in 7. Quote: And, what the hell is up with the San Antonio PA announcer? That is the worst, most whiney guy I have ever heard. I about die laughing when he announces the pregame lineup. Have you listened to your own PA announcer? " DEE-TROIIIT-BASKETBALLLLLLL!". If that isn't the most annoying thing I have ever heard, than I don't know what the hell is. 
I like the Detroit announcer. At least he sounds like his balls are still in tact. Have you heard the SA announcer?
And, you are correct that the Spurs are beating the Pistons at their own game. The Pistons have been out-husseled on nearly every level. Even though the Pistons have done a lot to beat themselves, there is no question they were outplayed in the first two games.
I also still agree that it will be a long series. It's amazing how quickly things turn around in the playoffs. Twice in this year's playoffs Detroit has been down and looking bad (especially after they lost two in a row to Indiana). With just a win tonight, it will pull them within a game of SA - down 2-1, which is exactly where they were with Indiana and Miami. I'm not sweating it yet, but a loss tonight and it would be over.
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Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:51 pm |
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Jmart
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Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 8:47 am Posts: 21230 Location: Massachusetts
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TonyMontana wrote: jmart007 wrote: TonyMontana wrote: Not to take anything away from the Spurs, who have played very well... but, the Pistons look utterly horrible so far. They missed 10 shots from less than 4 feet by halftime, and very few were contested. This is by far and away the worst I've seen them play in a long time. Now, I haven't seen much of the two games that have been played so far (Sox/Cubs), but if I were to guess, I would say that the Spurs are just beating the Pistons at their own game. Both teams are very simliar in their approach. The Spurs have to be doing something very small that is causing the Pistons to be off their game slightly. Even the tiniest thing can throw off a team and that's probably what is happening. Quote: Hopefully the change in venue will wake them up. [-o< Chances are the venue change will do so. I have thought since the beginning of this series, that it was going seven games, and I still think that. I think the Pistons will eventually tie the series in Motown, but eventually lose in 7. Quote: And, what the hell is up with the San Antonio PA announcer? That is the worst, most whiney guy I have ever heard. I about die laughing when he announces the pregame lineup. Have you listened to your own PA announcer? " DEE-TROIIIT-BASKETBALLLLLLL!". If that isn't the most annoying thing I have ever heard, than I don't know what the hell is.  I like the Detroit announcer. At least he sounds like his balls are still in tact. Have you heard the SA announcer? And, you are correct that the Spurs are beating the Pistons at their own game. The Pistons have been out-husseled on nearly every level. Even though the Pistons have done a lot to beat themselves, there is no question they were outplayed in the first two games. I also still agree that it will be a long series. It's amazing how quickly things turn around in the playoffs. Twice in this year's playoffs Detroit has been down and looking bad (especially after they lost two in a row to Indiana). With just a win tonight, it will pull them within a game of SA - down 2-1, which is exactly where they were with Indiana and Miami. I'm not sweating it yet, but a loss tonight and it would be over.
Wanna take that back now?
I admit though, I haven't heard the SA announcer so I do not know what I am missing there. I will be sure to catch the beginning of Game 5 now just to compare the two.
Anyways, the Pistons make a series of it now, by beating the Spurs 96-79.
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Wed Jun 15, 2005 1:33 am |
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TonyMontana
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jmart007 wrote: Wanna take that back now? I admit though, I haven't heard the SA announcer so I do not know what I am missing there. I will be sure to catch the beginning of Game 5 now just to compare the two. Anyways, the Pistons make a series of it now, by beating the Spurs 96-79.
No... just trust me you'll have to hear the SA announcer to know what I am talking about. He is hands down the worst sports announcer in any capacity that I have ever heard... including high school sports. Oh, and the next time you'll hear him is game 6. It's a 2-3-2 format for the finals.
And, it was great to see the Pistons that I know and love return tonight. It's a new series now. If the Pistons win Thursday it's all knotted up! 
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Wed Jun 15, 2005 2:25 am |
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