The Hall of Bad Predictions
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23261 Location: Melbourne Australia
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My worst prediction ever - Troy!!! I predicted a $65m opening and a $310m finish!!! I thought it would be the sure thing super hit of the summer ahead of Shrek 2's $275m but behind Spiderman's $350m. So you can say I skrewed up Shrek's gross aswell.
In the past ive predicted - $120m total for Johnny Mnemonic in 1995 and that only made $20m.
I said BASEketball would do $75m and it made virtually nothing.
I must have been smoking something when I predicted Ring 2 would make $150m.
I honestly thought A.I would open to $50m and make $200m - but it got nowhere near it.
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Thu May 26, 2005 10:33 am |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm Posts: 19697 Location: ville-marie
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I thought Prisoner of Azkaban would make nearly $350 million, it fell $100 million short of that - though I nailed the opening.
I never thought Shrek 2 could go that high - no one really did - but I had it down at $285 million - way short.
More recently, I way overpredicted Kingdom of Heaven (thought it would get $35 million). I did the same thing to Troy last year, when I thought it would open to $60 million. King Arthur also. There's something about those historical epics that makes me think they'll do well, but they never do.
_________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict. 
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Thu May 26, 2005 11:45 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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DP07 wrote: haha, I can't think of any others. Well, maybe Shrek 2, Meet the Fockers, Ocean's Twelve and The Last Samurai, although I don't remember exactly what you predicted for all of those. Those were 4 of my good predictions though that most on the boards disagreed with. heh :wink:
Ah, yeah, I underpredicted Meet the Fockers. Thought it'd make less than the original and overpredicted Ocean's Twelve big time.
And I tried to talk you out of overpredicting The Ring Two
I'm telling you, the next you'll overpredict will be POTC2 
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Thu May 26, 2005 1:16 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15497 Location: Everywhere
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Dr. Lecter wrote: DP07 wrote: haha, I can't think of any others. Well, maybe Shrek 2, Meet the Fockers, Ocean's Twelve and The Last Samurai, although I don't remember exactly what you predicted for all of those. Those were 4 of my good predictions though that most on the boards disagreed with. heh :wink:
Ah, yeah, I underpredicted Meet the Fockers. Thought it'd make less than the original and overpredicted Ocean's Twelve big time. And I tried to talk you out of overpredicting The Ring Two  I'm telling you, the next you'll overpredict will be POTC2 
Yeah, I know. :wink: I look at the yahoo grade now though, and I'm not sure that WOM for The Ring was as amazing as I thought. It's only a B. :???: As for POTC, I'm still going over 400m. Heck, I think it might hit 500m. The original has some of the best WOM in recent decades.
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Thu May 26, 2005 1:39 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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DP07 wrote: Yeah, I know. :wink: I look at the yahoo grade now though, and I'm not sure that WOM for The Ring was as amazing as I thought. It's only a B. :???: As for POTC, I'm still going over 400m. Heck, I think it might hit 500m. The original has some of the best WOM in recent decades.
But so did The Ring Two as well. Heck, its multiplier is better than POTC's. Depending on the quality, I think it might hit $300 million, but $400 million? Nope.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Thu May 26, 2005 1:43 pm |
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Box
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:52 am Posts: 25990
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Titanic. I was 100% certain that the film would rocket past $1B, but it failed miserably and grossed an abominable $600m. Off by $400m, can anyone beat that?
_________________In order of preference: Christian, Argos MadGez wrote: Briefs. Am used to them and boxers can get me in trouble it seems. Too much room and maybe the silkiness have created more than one awkward situation. My Box-Office Blog: http://boxofficetracker.blogspot.com/
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Thu May 26, 2005 1:47 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15497 Location: Everywhere
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Dr. Lecter wrote: DP07 wrote: Yeah, I know. :wink: I look at the yahoo grade now though, and I'm not sure that WOM for The Ring was as amazing as I thought. It's only a B. :???: As for POTC, I'm still going over 400m. Heck, I think it might hit 500m. The original has some of the best WOM in recent decades.
But so did The Ring Two as well. Heck, its multiplier is better than POTC's. Depending on the quality, I think it might hit $300 million, but $400 million? Nope.
Well, I think it's hard to compare legs between The Ring and POTC for a number of reasons the main one being that The Ring opened in less then 2,000 theaters and then expanded, while POTC actually opened in 3,000+ theaters.
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Thu May 26, 2005 1:48 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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DP07 wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: DP07 wrote: Yeah, I know. :wink: I look at the yahoo grade now though, and I'm not sure that WOM for The Ring was as amazing as I thought. It's only a B. :???: As for POTC, I'm still going over 400m. Heck, I think it might hit 500m. The original has some of the best WOM in recent decades.
But so did The Ring Two as well. Heck, its multiplier is better than POTC's. Depending on the quality, I think it might hit $300 million, but $400 million? Nope. Well, I think it's hard to compare legs between The Ring and POTC for a number of reasons the main one being that The Ring opened in less then 2,000 theaters and then expanded, while POTC actually opened in 3,000+ theaters.
And because of the Halloween effect as well, I know. However, even then, you must admit that The Ring's legs were splendid. Yet the sequel didn't reflect much of this. Its opening more than doubles the original's openig, but then again, it's not too hard if the original opened to $15 million. I don't see why POTC's opening should make any more than just twice of what POTC has made in its opening weekend, especially, since POTC already opened quite well.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Thu May 26, 2005 1:53 pm |
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baumer72
Mod Team Leader
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm Posts: 7087 Location: Crystal Lake
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Okay, off the top of my head, my most infamous one, that most mojoers know about is prediction that TTT would fall by about 15% and fross 264 mill. That is one I will never live down.
I also said that The Matrix would never fly because it was a dumb movie abotu computers. What a joke. I thought it would perform much like 13th Floor did.
When I was 13, I told my best friend that I didn't want to go see some stupdi ass movie about some retarded car that goes back in time. How the hell can you go back to the future anyway? YEA...whatever, bit the big one on that one also.
I think I said Pireate of the caribbean would gross 110 mill. :Respect:
_________________ Brick Tamland: Yeah, there were horses, and a man on fire, and I killed a guy with a trident.
Ron Burgundy: Brick, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safehouse or a relative close by. Lay low for a while, because you're probably wanted for murder.
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Thu May 26, 2005 1:54 pm |
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MGKC
---------
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm Posts: 11808 Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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I think the Ring is more like Napoleon Dynamite. People just went to see it because people were talking about it, not because they were loving it.
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Thu May 26, 2005 1:55 pm |
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baumer72
Mod Team Leader
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm Posts: 7087 Location: Crystal Lake
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MadGez wrote: My worst prediction ever - Troy!!! I predicted a $65m opening and a $310m finish!!! I thought it would be the sure thing super hit of the summer ahead of Shrek 2's $275m but behind Spiderman's $350m. So you can say I skrewed up Shrek's gross aswell.
In the past ive predicted - $120m total for Johnny Mnemonic in 1995 and that only made $20m.
I said BASEketball would do $75m and it made virtually nothing.
I must have been smoking something when I predicted Ring 2 would make $150m.
I honestly thought A.I would open to $50m and make $200m - but it got nowhere near it.
We all thought the Ring 2 would do well. How could we have not? And it would have made that much if it was a good film.
_________________ Brick Tamland: Yeah, there were horses, and a man on fire, and I killed a guy with a trident.
Ron Burgundy: Brick, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safehouse or a relative close by. Lay low for a while, because you're probably wanted for murder.
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Thu May 26, 2005 1:57 pm |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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My most infamous bad prediction was for Hulk, which I predicted 85/301. Of course, there were a few geniuses that couldn't tell the difference between things I said and things BKB said, so I got credit for predicting $400M for it.
Pirates of the Caribbean was another bad prediction. I didn't think it would do but $150M or so.
The Passion of the Christ was another. I can't remember what I predicted, but I was off by about $250-$300M.
I won't be predicting anymore movies with POTC in their initials.
I predicted Finding Nemo would make around $200M.
Other predictions have been off, but nothing that are Hall of Shame caliber predictions. For instance, I predicted Freddy vrs. Jason would make $100M. It made a little over $80M, so I'm not hanging my head over it.
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Thu May 26, 2005 2:43 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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baumer72 wrote: When I was 13, I told my best friend that I didn't want to go see some stupdi ass movie about some retarded car that goes back in time. How the hell can you go back to the future anyway? YEA...whatever, bit the big one on that one also.
:laugh:
Good one!
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Thu May 26, 2005 2:52 pm |
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deathawk
Madoshi
Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm Posts: 631 Location: Cephiro
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Without question POTC. I was convinced it had no chance at 100M, and think I predicted somethwere in the mid 50s as a final #. Just a wee tad off on that one.....esp. since I now think its one of the best Pirate films ever, but I remember being convinced this would be another Cutthroat Island.
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Thu May 26, 2005 5:01 pm |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am Posts: 18501
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baumer72 wrote: Okay, off the top of my head, my most infamous one, that most mojoers know about is prediction that TTT would fall by about 15% and fross 264 mill. That is one I will never live down.
I also said that The Matrix would never fly because it was a dumb movie abotu computers. What a joke. I thought it would perform much like 13th Floor did.
When I was 13, I told my best friend that I didn't want to go see some stupdi ass movie about some retarded car that goes back in time. How the hell can you go back to the future anyway? YEA...whatever, bit the big one on that one also.
I think I said Pireate of the caribbean would gross 110 mill. :Respect:
Yeah?? And looking on your comments now, I'd say in hindsight, you were right.. They did suck.. :laugh:
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Fri May 27, 2005 2:27 am |
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Star Wars
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2005 1:18 pm Posts: 1638 Location: Alderaan
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I thought Passion would've made more money than it did. $370 million only? That's alot but I thought Christians would've flocked to it much more than that...
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Fri May 27, 2005 3:04 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23261 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Ivan K wrote: Titanic. I was 100% certain that the film would rocket past $1B, but it failed miserably and grossed an abominable $600m. Off by $400m, can anyone beat that?
Yeah - I thought it would only do $170m - off by $430m!!!! \:D/
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Fri May 27, 2005 3:05 am |
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