Early preview numbers
28YL 5m

Elio 500k Wed/2-2.5m Thurs

Looking like 28YL will be in contention for first, and Elio might approach Elemental if walkups are strong. Still would have a long way to go though. Helps that its a much better movie than Elemental.

Elio did much better with walkups yesterday compared to 28YL. Makes sense at the heart of the summer. Feels like 28YL will hit low 30s and Elio low to mid 20s. Good recovery for Elio after it looked dire in comps with Elemental.

Very curious about 28 Years Later reception... 68% audience sscore on RT rn. If it has bad WoM would be sad if it plummets.

So Elio matched Elemental’s Thursday.

Is there a reason to expect it to be more front loaded?

Even with Lightyear multiplier which is worse than Elemental, Elio would be around 30m, so seems like this could've been worse.

It did much better.

Elemental made $2.4m, and Elio did $3m.

Elio did 500K from early sneaks, so its basically equal

Don't think Elio will have Elemental legs... hopefully it at least can get to 100m.

Friday early from Deadline
28YL14/28-30
Dragon 10.7/35
Elio 9/22-24

If these hold they’re very boring

Elio will not hit 24m from 6m TF. That said let us hope that number goes up a bit. Even though the weekend number is still mediocre, at least it did not do something awful like teens OW that was possible based on presales even on Monday.

9m is dreadful for Elio. Oh well

Materialists is going to have not a horrible drop. Maybe can leg it out over Iron Claw to be 7th biggest domestic film for A24.

Both are failures, let's move on to next weekend

28 Days opened to 10m and finished with 45m
28 Weeks opened to just under 10m and finished with 28m
28 Years opening with 28m (finish ~$70m?) seems like a win to me.

but a Pixar movie opening to low $20sm is just very bad. the brand has fallen so far

Sure, it's a success but finishing with $70m nobody will care about it. In 2002 dollars that's less than the first.

it also has a 75m budget. anything under that gross domestically is definitely not a win/ success.

Both of these movies were kinda lame so these box office results are appropriate. Hopefully F1 picks things up next week into a mammoth July.

In retrospect thinking this could compete with Final Destination's numbers was pretty ambitious for the first two movies not really being that big and Danny Boyle movie without huge stars.

Elio ... too many animated movies with aliens over the years for Pixar+aliens to pop? Can't make a movie about the live version of the Toy Story dudes after Lightyear. Maybe they should've tried an E.T. type set up where the human characters meet one on earth?

Elio DOM is awful being the worst unadjusted theatrical opener in Pixar history. But OS OW of 14m across 80% of markets make it look good. !!!

The Final Destination films weren't ever that big either, for Bloodlines to a+ 50m opening is just huge, and if I'm right that had 5,5m on previews. Even the 28 films weren't that big or that it was a larger franchise, it could just be time for the type of film. And it even had better previews at 5,8m, so it could totally have been set up for an opening like Bloodlines. There have been examples were a new take on existing properties have done well enough but in the end 28 Year later was only frontloaded and audience buzz and the demand simply didn't seem there after all.

Pixar has been trying originals wise (7 of the last 8) but the home run concepts just aren't there.

I believe Soul and Turning Red could’ve debuted decent if released to theaters.

Luca might’ve been a bit more niche

In terms of total gross, which of this weekend's new releases will finish higher?

They’ll be close. I see both Elio and 28YL around 75m

Elio