Alice Through the Looking Glass made 23% of the first's visual novelty success, the same for the Lion King would be only 125.2 million. This would also be about an Aquaman 2 run.

This movie has no heat and overshadowed by the November blockbusters.

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I'm conflicted.

I want it to fail because I picked Sonic in the draft, and I don't like the 2019 remake. That said I do like the character of Mufasa and if done right (perhaps animated) it could have been great. Plus surely at Christmas a Disney live action can still do $150-$200m?

If it opened in summer then sure. Holiday legs will save this turd though.

That would be a bridge too far. Its opening during holidays. That will boost its gross for sure. I am thinking in 200s finish for Mufasa.

It could open to just 35m and still do 200m so no.

My expectations is mid 50s opening, about 250 total.

It’s opening to minimum 30m so no

The IP on this is just too strong for it to drop off that badly. TLK 1994 $1B+, highest grossing musical at all time that still plays year round, and the last film though poor still did $1.7B worldwide and adjusts to $650M domestic now. Add in the fact the holidays have a premium for family films, the resorts and cruises and stores continuingly keeping TLK IP popular, and the fact that the trailer was in front of the biggest film of the year (with Disney having #1 and #2), and will be played non-stop in front of Moana which is looking to break out, and it's got a softer landing by default.

Alice 2 followed an overinflated 3D craze of its predecessor (opening 3 months after Avatar #1) so probably made $100M more than it would have if not for that. It also had to deal with the Heard accusations coming out publicly the same week as the OW of Alice 2 in 2016.

That said if the movie as awful as TLK was even holidays may not help as much as what we expect. I dont think Disney will even bother to release reviews until wednesday of the release week like what they are doing for Moana next week. At least for Moana it makes sense as Wicked buzz will hit a crescendo this week.

From Empire 2 hrs ago:


I'm also already seeing good interest in big markets for opening weekend already.

Also this poster came out today. It's pretty effective for the family audience. Sonic will pull older kinds but younger ones will see Mufasa in droves.

Nope!

easily $150m - 175m OW

I dont know what Empire was seeing. I am seeing terrible presales for Mufasa. Way below Moana and last movie had Super hero level presales. It will drop bad from TLK OW.

Yeah, not even I would go that low.

Less than 250m. If it was released in the summer I think this could have been possible.

Yeah, after reading advanced sales were amazing I decided to check sales for theaters in Minnesota. They were awful. Most showings had no sales. The fullest showing I saw had 4 tickets sold.

He referenced the 1 billion number so maybe worldwide it's doing better.

He begs to differ

I saw that post and it does not work with the data I see. Multiple MTC have had beyond mediocre start for Mufasa and as I said TLK had a MCU level presales back in 2019.

Make it sub $150M and I'll join

This film is soooo cynical and transparently corporate that it's truly disgusting. A CGI remake of TLK was bad enough. Now a prequel??

I'll change it to 150 since 125 was probably a bit aggressive

Make it sub $200M and I'll join

That would still represent a huge drop from TLK

As expected Presales just cratered after 1st few hrs. Its selling like small animation movies at this point. Still it should open around 50m OW which should take its domestic above 200m with holidays even with mediocre WOM.

It will still make $200m. Slightly bigger OW than Wonka but poorer legs.

Sonic will hurt it the first week and then it may re-bound a bit later as the second choice for families.

They should've actually made this in 2D, if you want to a make Lion King prequel make it a REAL one.

That's what should have happened. And perhaps years ago.

Sonic 3 will beat it at the domestic box office, been saying it all year