Moana 2 - 550
Wicked - 400
Gladiator II - 150

Id say wicked is more in the 350 range but the others look accurate. I could see Gladiator do more since it’ll probably have really good legs at Christmas

I think there's a better chance Gladiator 2 is at 150 Million by the end of Thanksgiving weekend .

Moana - $490m
Wicked - $385m
Gladiator II - $270m

How are presales holding up for the three movies?

Moana: $420m
Wicked: $390m
Gladiator: $205m

Moana $575M
Wicked $475M
Gladiator $355M

$1.4B between the three of them. We may very well see the biggest 3day weekend of all time this month.

Wicked - $375m
Moana 2 - $230m
Gladiator II - $165m

Wicked - 450m
Gladiator - 200m
Moana 2 - 375m

Feeling the heartland goes to Gladiator in droves, coasts pull in Wicked and Moana is big everywhere. Also think Pedro is going to help a lot to drive Latino/Hispanic moviegoers to Gladiator in walkups and that could surprise on the upside. Denzel's fans are showing up regardless and have already locked in a $30M+ OW just there.

Much of the audience that will see Gladiator (older, heartland, hispanic, African American) gets undercounted in tracking so really hope it can massively surprise. Still has big coast appeal too but think its got a lot larger audience.

Actually Wicked is very strong everywhere. Gladiator is doing very well in pockets. Moana is great for the genre but still no where near Wicked in presales. At this point Wicked is looking like Barbie 2.0 looking at how much the presales are accelerating.

Good to hear about Wicked. If we have 3 big overperformances would be a great way to end the year.

All three will probably be playing into the new year fairly strongly.

If all these movies exceed expectations, then I reckon Mufasa underperforms.

There's no way Mufasa doesn't underperform but its because the first one massively overperformed ($650M adjusted, $1.7B unadjusted worldwide). Domestically this could lose 69% of its audience and would still pass $200M+. With a $200M budget and likely a global hit still would pass as a hit.

I think Moana 2 can hit 500m if reviews are great. Presales are still above Inside Out 2 !!!

I may update mine to:

Moana - $440m
Wicked - $460m
Gladiator II - $270m

Feeling like it's going to see a New Moon type run here but better legs with award buzz and broader audience interest:

Beauty and the Beast $218.4M
Hunger Games $214,837,785
New Moon $213.5M/$443.4M (adjusted)

That run feels like the energy / hype building on Wicked when I think of Nov. films. A best case scenario here would be to be in the New Moon, HG, BATB range ($214-218M). Highly not likely but that would be a best case here. Barbie was big but we've seen much bigger and Nov. seems to be especially strong for this audience with HG/Twilight films priming audiences up for fall female led tentpoles.

Moana 2 - 600m
Wicked - 400m
Gladiator - 180m

Mufasa presales have started today and its looking grim so far. Let us see how things go. Big drop from the last one is the most probably outcome but I hope it does not do as badly as some of the sequels recently.

It'll have a Alice 2 dropoff. Literally who gives af

And opening against Sonic is dumb.

There's no way parents will be able to resist using Mufasa as a babysitter for the holiday break. Even if it opens low ($30-40M range?) it'll leg out a solid total of $250M+.

As for this thread:

Wicked - $540M
Moana 2 - $440M
Gladiator 2 - $240M

Sonic > Mufasa! Yes please.

I'd love Sonic to get a big boost thanks to Shadow and Christmas. Something like $250-275m while Mufasa doesn't totally fail either - something like $220-250m due to Christmas/NY legs.

Hate that they are opening the same day though.

Moana 2 will disappoint and have slightly closer gross to Gladiator 2 than to Wicked. Gladiator 2 + Wicked’s second wknd > Moana’s 1st weekend.

Gladiator 2: $250m
Moana 2: $350m
Wicked: $450m

I can see Wicked doing better overall than Moana 2 (which will still be big). That extra week prior to Thanksgiving is critical. A 5-day opening of Moana 2 may be around $130m (Wicked will impact it) and a 3.4 multiplier gets it to ~$440m. Wicked should be able to edge past this.

Moana is a streaming smash. There is no reason for it to do less than 400m unless familes choose to wait for D+.