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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38315
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Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
The pre-Dune stretch looks pretty bad, but it looks like audiences are open for moderate sleeper hits. I think Mean Girls has the advantage, but what will be the breakout of the rest?
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Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:55 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20445 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
Bob Marley looks like another I Wanna Dance with Somebody. Gonna bomb.
Argylle I think can maybe do like 60-75mish
Madame Web is gonna do like 30m domestic total lol.
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Mon Jan 01, 2024 11:04 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38315
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
I would have believed in It Ends With Us but no idea why they didn’t put the trailer in front of Anyone But You unless it’s moving or it's going to look like one of the recent Sparks adaptations nobody cares about.
I wasn’t feeling it before but Argylle will probably be pushed heavy in NFL playoff commercials and can weak February to compete with. I guess it’ll have to be it since I’m not feeling Marley since it was obviously moved out of Oscar season for quality reasons and Madame Web gets killed by superhero fatigue. Miller’s Girl is a perfect January trash plot and would be a sleeper although it might get killed by reviews, if Argylle only makes 60 mil though it’s not that crazy hard to beat it. Since now that I look at it closer Argylle is a more clear favorite, I guess I’ll be bold and vote for Miller’s Girl, though I could feel dumb about it.
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Mon Jan 01, 2024 11:08 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67153
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
I'd say it's obviously going to be Argylle. But I'd love to see a surprise turnout for Turning Red and The Beekeeper, but unfortunately for former is unlikely and the latter is a fantasy.
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Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:58 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
That Hillary Swank movie ad is playing in front of almost every movie I see. If it connects in the heartland could do solid.
I think Bob Marley will do solidly. He has multi demo appeal and biopics seem like they can have a lot of upside if it actually turns out to be good.
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Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:13 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22746 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
I think Bob Marley could be a bit of a break out.
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Tue Jan 02, 2024 12:34 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18956 Location: San Diego
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
Kinda feel like Argylle will not do more than 60m domestic.
That said I think its between that, Madame Web and the Marley biopic.
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Tue Jan 02, 2024 12:40 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6166 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
Argylle screams mega bomb that destroys the idea of Henry Cavill as a leading man. The trailer is a confusing hodge-podge of ideas. It looks original and derivative at the same time. Like something that shouldn't have left the elevator pitch stage but is here with a $100M budget. So not that.
Madame Web is going to do about as well as that new Charlie's Angels movie. But it's kind of gratifying to see a talentless nepo baby get punished with an embarrassing Z list Marvel adjacent film destined to bomb. I can imagine her face when her agent told her "well we couldn't get you the female lead in Batman but... how about this?"
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Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:20 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23921 Location: Classified
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
I voted Argylle but could see either Ends With Us or Bob Marley having a mini breakout over the V-Day weekend. I once thought Madame Web would make a good date movie but now expect it to fall under $25M total.
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Thu Jan 04, 2024 1:29 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34878 Location: Minnesota
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
Should be Argylle.
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Thu Jan 04, 2024 3:04 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6233
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
I agree. Argylle looks good to me. Mean Girls is not looking that huge to me so far.
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Fri Jan 05, 2024 2:14 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23921 Location: Classified
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
Crazy that we had Megan and Ant-Man in these two months last year. Will any of these titles even match Cocaine Bear?
Dune is gonna explode just cause people will be so damn thirsty for something worth seeing. Panda could really benefit too. Even if something from this crop breaks out it won't be family friendly.
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Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:01 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38315
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
Anyone But You and Boys in the Boat the start of the "50 mil outta nowhere" era?
Maybe Lisa Frankenstein is a good fit to be next as it seems kind of romcom adjace and it seems like it'd be a true "outta nowhere" sleeper.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sat Jan 06, 2024 1:35 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
I'd love for Turning Red to break out just to show Disney how misguided they were with it's release but I do see a few of these movies breakout. I overindexed on the Hilary Swank movie because Jack Reacher as a TV show is so popular that maybe enough people show up to it. The heartland appeal maybe. We'll see a surprise here or there but it's a coin toss what it ends up being.
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Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:08 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34878 Location: Minnesota
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
Shack wrote: Anyone But You and Boys in the Boat the start of the "50 mil outta nowhere" era?
Maybe Lisa Frankenstein is a good fit to be next as it seems kind of romcom adjace and it seems like it'd be a true "outta nowhere" sleeper. I would LOVE to see Lisa Frankenstein be a hit. I'm really excited for it. Jennifer's Body is a favorite. But it really looks like something that will flop and then gain a cult following. Hoping to be wrong though.
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Sat Jan 20, 2024 3:35 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32139 Location: the last free city
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
Madame Web WILL RULE THE BOXOFFICE
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Sat Jan 20, 2024 11:08 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38315
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
I'm not really feeling Argylle atm.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sun Jan 21, 2024 4:05 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22746 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
With such a baron marketplace - could these films that would have underperformed actually do decent business?
Could mean the difference between $70m and $100m for Argyle or Madame Web?
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
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Sun Jan 21, 2024 11:44 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20445 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
Madame Web is gonna tank so hard.
I feel like Argylle will be a hit among older audiences, the old people always eat up the trailer
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Mon Jan 22, 2024 12:25 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18956 Location: San Diego
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
Apparantly the Bob Marley film is tracking decently so it'll probably end up being that.
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Thu Jan 25, 2024 1:25 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
Will Madame Web benefit at all from Sydney Sweeney's involvement in the cast post ABY? Maybe. Also saw Tenet is coming back to theaters this February. Will come out for 1 week on IMAX will include exclusive footage from Dune: Part Two. Seems like this is a goodwill gesture from WB trying to get Nolan to like them again. Think it will do a lot better than Soul and the Disney re-releases. I'd love to see Tenet on a big screen. https://deadline.com/video/christopher- ... /#comments
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Thu Jan 25, 2024 3:44 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22746 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
publicenemy#1 wrote: Apparantly the Bob Marley film is tracking decently so it'll probably end up being that. I picked it in this poll. It does look to be a breakout. Though Argylle may get close.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
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Thu Jan 25, 2024 6:44 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
So apparently the Marley movie is outpacing the box office of Madame Web! Very good sign and if the quality is there even better. Tracking very well with Black and Hispanic audiences as well as older adults. If it's already at up to $33M, seems very promising. Marley $27-33M (6day) Web $25M (6day) https://deadline.com/2024/01/bob-marley ... 235804733/
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Fri Jan 26, 2024 1:21 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6233
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
Madame Web Presales have started today and its actually doing way better than what I expected. I think its winning that weekend as I expect Marley to skew OD even more than MW. Now I think MW will be the biggest opener apart from MG as Argylle sales are still looking meh and I expect high teens OW at this point.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Mon Jan 29, 2024 3:33 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38315
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Re: Biggest movie of January/February other than Mean Girls?
Looks like all these dead weeks can plausibly lead to Madame Marley becoming a very poor man's (as in homeless man with AIDS) Barbieheimer.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Mon Jan 29, 2024 5:10 pm |
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