Around $625m I believe.

It will have some value on D+ for them so they may be able to handle losing a bit theatrically, though it's hardly a raging success. I feel it'd be a good time for the CGI remakes era to end though with the live action Moana news it seems like they may not be able to resist live action Frozen and Encanto eventually.

Here are the numbers, I didn't see any posted yet:

1 N The Little Mermaid Walt Disney $95,500,000 4,320 $22,106 $95,500,000 1
2 (1) Fast X Universal $23,020,000 -66% 4,088 +42 $5,631 $107,955,000 2
3 (2) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 Walt Disney $19,950,000 -38% 3,940 -510 $5,063 $299,425,817 4
4 (3) The Super Mario Bros. Movie Universal $6,270,000 -35% 3,148 -392 $1,992 $558,882,000 8
5 N The Machine Sony Pictures $4,900,000 2,409 $2,034 $4,900,000 1
6 N About My Father Lionsgate $4,250,000 2,464 $1,725 $4,250,000 1
7 N Kandahar Briarcliff E… $2,410,000 2,105 $1,145 $2,410,000 1
8 N You Hurt My Feelings A24 $1,389,158 912 $1,523 $1,389,158 1
9 (5) Evil Dead Rise Warner Bros. $1,052,000 -57% 921 -1,252 $1,142 $66,200,000 6
10 (4) Book Club: The Next Chapter Focus Features $920,000 -69% 1,339 -2,174 $687 $16,131,970 3

I mean, obviously $95 million is huge, but it feels a bit low after seeing the $43m Friday figure. I was expecting $105m. I thought the weekend days would've been large considering those are big days for kids.

Fast X didn't drop as embarrassingly as I expected.

Vol. 3 is definitely beating Vol. 1, so that's good news.

The Machine, About My Father, and Kandahar all did really bad. I half expected The Machine to perform in the low millions, but I really (stupidly) expected De Niro and Butler to be able to muster up AT LEAST high single digit openings.

Disappointing start for TLM as expected, frontloaded as hell, it will struggle to reach $250 I guess

Super Mario had the best hold of the top 10, very impressive knowing that it’s been available in digital for 2 weeks!

Hope legs are good. Sub-300m would be disappointing. The overseas numbers are rough.

I think Europe legs will be good and so somewhere around 250m OS could happen. Domestic I am not sure this will hold well against competition to take it to 300m. 2nd weekend hold will be the key.

With a $95 million opening it had better get to $300m. Though I suppose a 3.0 multiplier ending with $285m isn't bad either. As long as it hits that 3.0 it has kind of done enough.

The Little Mermaid appeals to young girls. I think its toughest competition will be Elemental, which premieres on Friday June 16, 2023.

Wakanda Forever internal multiplier: 181.3/84.3 = 2.15
Aladdin internal multiplier: 91.5/31.4 = 2.91
The Little Mermaid internal multiplier (preliminary) : 95.5/38 = 2.51

Wakanda Forever multiplier: 453.8/181.3 = 2.5
Aladdin multiplier 355.6/91.5 = 3.89
The Little Mermaid multiplier could be 3.16
The Little Mermaid could end up with 3.16*95.5 = $302 million domestic box office

The Little Mermaid will struggle to reach $300 million domestic with Elemental coming up. It appears that The Little Mermaid will fall short of $600 million at the worldwide box office.

I don’t think it’ll be long before universal cancels that 2 part finale for Fast and goes back to 1. X will not come close breaking even.

A live-action Little Mermaid adaptation failing to break even theatrical is a catastrophe.

A catastrophe is being dramatic I think. As we all discussed, late 2010s Disney spoiled us to what to expect from both Disney and its live action remakes. For comparison, the Disney live action remakes of the 90s were far less successful. Still it appears to be headed towards disappointment barring miraculous legs or possibly successful merchandising. But I think despite perhaps being a better film ironically, this might be the beginning of the end for this “live action remake” era of Disney.

Snow White is in the can, but hopefully Disney calls off Moana after this Lolol that one is definitely gonna do even worse

They had three billion dollar adaptations with Beauty and the Beast, Lion King and Aladdin, this will do less than half despite Little Mermaid being every bit as iconic as those other films. It's headed towards $470-$500M WW, that's like a 60% drop from the average of their other live action adaptations 90s cartoons, catastrophe IMO. Not to mention it's also a flop compared to Jungle Book and Maleficent. Like, this will be closer to Dumbo's gross WW than any of those other films.

It's also bad for Disney as a whole because they depended on this to print money for them this year since Ant-Man bombed, Elemental is going to bomb, and Guardians was big but not uber huge. What else do they have left this year? The Marvels? It also derails plans for future live action adaptations that they were surely banking on since Marvel is declining fast and Pixar is worth nothing as a brand now outside of sequels. There was a lot riding on this film.

Yeah this year wouldn’t be so catastrophic for Disney if all their movies weren’t budgeted like they are guaranteed billion dollar pictures.

There’s a chance that Guardians 150-250m in profit is the only profit they make all year, since Indiana Jones is not making a profit, nor is elemental, and I doubt the marvels will either. Haunted Mansion and Haunting in Venice Might do ok but Hsuntes Mansion needs like 400-500m WW to break even, and I’m sure the Agatha Christie movie ain’t cheap either. Wish is their only film left this year with breakout potential.

Charlie is saying Mermaid and Fast are in line with estimates for Sunday while Guardians is flat from yesterday. So only movies with really strong WOM seem to benefit(duh)

Reflecting on what Barrabas said, and looking at Disney's last ten years, you do really start to see what "go woke, go broke" means for them. I dislike the phrase, but it's not incorrect, and there seem to be an abundance of examples besides just Disney.

I think the “go woke, go broke” isn’t getting at the issue.

they're giving racist/sexist youtuber's clowns way to much credit

The issue is budgets. It’s unreasonable for Disney to budget everything so that it has to gross a billion to make significant profit.

You don’t have to be racist or sexist to use that term. I’m black with daughters and I believe it’s a real thing (and dislike how agendas are affecting films). With that said, Little Mermaid’s underperformance is unfortunate because of what it potentially means for Disney’s future plans. I personally liked the idea of live action remakes. A Hunchback live action would have been great. Same for Emperor’s New Groove.

How else do you explain Black Panther and Captain Marvel being the lowest grossing Marvel movies ever? And how the new Ghostbusters, which had MEN, made 800 billion more than the one with vaginas everywhere? Stop believing the media's lies you libtard!!

Friday was $38M...

As with everything there is never just one factor, but I believe Disney's foray down the wokeness trail in recent years is a major factor turning people off their releases.

Fast X is a minority-tilted film that's doing better internationally than domestic, so it's hard for me to say racism is why TLM flopped internationally. Maybe it has as much to do with masculinity as race that the mermaid movie doesn't sell everywhere.