Disappointingly front loaded over OD. We’ll see what the Saturday hold is.

Shazam really doesn't deserve this. Wow.

Besides that box office is really healthy. Never thought Creed would increase so much from the last. The last John Wick had a 3x multiplier, $200m is in the cards if it's not too frontloaded.

Shazam is tragic

Ouchy ouch. People are probably kinda happy to see a smug-as-fuck superhero completely tank.

Saturday looking like $25.5m...

Should be able to do over 71 with that

John Wick4 got better reviews than John Wick3 which did better than John Wick2 which did better than John Wick

John Wick4 got better box-office than John Wick3 which did better than John Wick2 which did better than John Wick


Steady improvement on both counts, across 4 films in a franchise. Wow!

Needs 211 total to pass revolutions for Reeves 4th biggest film after speed and the first 2 Matrix. Definitely doable considering the last’s legs, quiet market place and reviews

Opening is probably not big enough to outdo Ant Man but it should hopefully hit 200m with this opening

What's encouraging about JW is Imax and premium large format screens delivered 38% of its weekend. For comparison's sake, Avatar 2 did 62%.

So not only is it nearly 3 hrs long but people are seeing it in droves on premium screens so legs could be decent here helped by the best of the franchise reviews.

Would need a 3x multilier to beat Ant-Man. Would be great to see lol

JW3 did 3.01X but I couldn't find it's Imax and premium screen share if anyone has that handy.

On another note, in the THR article LG mentioned there have only been 9 cases of a 4th movie becoming the top of the franchise (up to that point). Can we put together what that list is?

Rocky
Fast
John Wick
James Bond

5 - 9?

Technically Crystal Skull, Phantom Menace, and Jurassic World would be on that list too. Also the Thor franchise, and Toy Story

Walking through these franchises from #1 to #4 film box office (original release unadjusted)

Rocky $117,235,147, $85,182,160, $125,049,125, $127,873,716

Fast $144,745,925, $127,154,901, $62,514,415, $155,064,265

John Wick $43,037,835, $92,029,184, $171,015,687, #4 TBD

James Bond $16,067,035, $24,796,765, $51,081,062, $63,595,658

Indiana Jones $212,222,025, $179,870,271, $197,171,806, $317,101,119

Star Wars $307,263,857, $209,398,025, $252,583,617, $431,088,295

Jurassic Park $357,067,947, $229,086,679, $181,171,875, $652,270,625

Toy Story $191,796,233, $245,852,179, $415,004,880, $434,038,008

Thor $181,030,624, $206,362,140, $315,058,289, $343,256,830

John Wick feels closest to James Bond interestingly. The others here started big and fourth movies aren't that far off from a big successful #1 movie. James Bond and JW had a 4X multiple between first and 4th movies.

Toy Story, Thor, and now John Wick. These are the gold standard.

Fast franchise declined for the 2nd and 3rd films before rebounding with the 4th so it's a bit different.

I hope Wick can have good legs from here. $200m+ would be nice indeed.

We've had 4 movies do $44M+ over a 6 week period and 2 do $70M+ over that time.

$73M for a nearly 3 hour R-rated movie. $106M for a less well received Ant Man.

All hands on deck for Mario, which tracking is showing is primed to be all all quadrant hit and even split between boys and girls for kids. Puss left the top 10 after 13 weekends and its first under $1M weekend.

For a movie people really want to see at this point Mario feels like its got $150M+ potential OW. The last few weeks feel like an appetizer for the main course.

JW is in many ways like the Jason Bourne trilogy. First opened at 27, then 52, then 69 grossing 121, 176, 227. Had they not waited so long for part 4 (Which stilled opened to 59) it could have definitely gone higher. Also Mission Impossible (6th film is the highest)

Mission Impossible is another great franchise grower. I have a hard time not seeing #9 become the top film in the franchise post TGM for Cruise. That would be crazy for a movie franchise based on a TV show 27 years after the original film.

Where Bourne didn't work is Renner doing the one movie.

John Wick, Jason Bourne and MI need to become serialized across actors like James Bond or Jack Ryan but Cruise and Reeves and Damon are so closely associated with those roles. Connery was too but took a long time to get them fresh again.

Potter (8th film highest) Halloween H40 (9th film biggest in the series, I didn't include the two Zombie films)

Also the 3 Bad Boys films have increased as well. I wonder how the 4th film will do in this post Slap/ post pandemic world. The third was awesome.

With an 8.5 on IMDB, rave reviews and an A Cinemascore - could we see a multiplier over 3.3? That would get it to ~$250m

Actuals:

John Wick went up $300K ish $73,817,950
Shazam went down $300K ish $9,340,652

JW4 needs a 2.71 multiplier to get to $200M. Feels very doable.

It's so bizarre how mishandled Matrix Ressurections was. Had it been tweaked into a better film and released under normal circumstances it could've been huge.

It truly is strange that John Wick could compare or eventually exceed Keanu's defining career role over Neo but moviegoers overall seemed to like 1 Matrix film but 4 John Wick movies. It felt like Matrix would be the one he'd always be defined by but you're right, for the right movie, marketing, and delayed another year at least could have possibly been retooled into a better movie. Keanu still has big bankability but nothing felt fresh about the new Matrix movie.

Point Break
Speed
The Matrix
John Wick series

These are his defining films. Does indeed look like he'll be most remembered for Wick.

BTW - he's mentioned interest in doing another Speed film....