Hey, thanks for tracking this! Much appreciated.

My pleasure.

Saturday admissions: about 65,000 admissions (25,000-30,000 walk-ins for the entire day)

I'm sure people are wondering what the title means. Well, Avatar 2 had some amazing showings and terrible ones as well. Here I thought tracking Star Wars: The Force Awakens was confusing. Avatar 2 was even more confusing to track than that film.

Nice list

MCL - Amazing showings here. New Town Plaza had at least 4 afternoon/night showings that sold over 150 tickets each. Festival Walk, Hollywood, K11 recorded showings with over 100 admissions. Festival Walk had one showing that sold 189 tickets. Rural theaters like Cyberport and Citygate had showings close to 100 admissions. Cheung Sha Wan was pretty full the entire day.

Emperor - Good to very good showings overall. Times Square recorded at least 1 showing over 150 admissions. Tsuen Wan had at least 2 showings over 100 admissions. Despite having a screen with IMAX, iSquare performed well with showings close to 100 admissions. LOHAS, Tuen Mun and Ma On Shan saw showings about 60-75% full almost the entire day.

Naughty list

Broadway - Terrible showings at almost all theaters aside from a couple of standout showings. Cityplaza and The GRAND saw showings over 100 admissions, however, other Avatar 2 showings at these theaters were quite empty with about 25-30 admissions sold. Something to note is that both Cityplaza and The GRAND's showings were ATMOS showings. One of the worst showings was at b+ APM with just 26 tickets sold for a mid afternoon showing in a 142 seater (18% sold). For the whole day, APM only sold 563 3D admissions on 11 showings (Average admissions per showing - 51). That's bad for a high traffic theater.

Even HK Island theaters couldn't save Avatar 2 with showings only 50-60% filled with about 50-60 admissions per showing in the afternoon.

Other theater chains such as Golden Harvest and Cinema City both performed OK. Some theaters were quite empty like Candy Park but others like Metroplex (rural theater) and Grand Ocean had showings of over 100 people.

Why did this happen?

Of all the reasons as to why and how Avatar 2 "failed", ticket price was not what I expected.

When I look around Broadway's theaters, most of theirs seems to have set Avatar 2's ticket prices slightly higher by $5-$10 than their counterparts in similar locations. For example, Broadway's Tsuen Wan charges $5 more for an adult ticket to see Avatar 2 than the Tsuen Wan at Emperor. Yet, when I looked at the admissions yesterday, Emperor's Tsuen Wan was winning hands down in admissions despite charging $5 less.

Even now, I just looked up the Sunday 10 AM showtime for both Broadway's Tsim Sha Tsui (The ONE) location and Emperor's (iSquare) and iSquare is doing 3:1 business of The One's with the same price point.

However, when I look at the business district's theaters, Emperor's Central theater has the highest 3D ticket prices anywhere in HK for a regular theater. It's actually $10 more expensive but that doesn't seem to faze people from buying tickets but for some reason, both Palace IFC and Pacific Place did OK but not spectacular like blockbusters usually do at these locations.

I don't understand. So it might not be about ticket price?

Maybe? There could be some sort of boycott of Broadway's theaters that I don't know about but it is really odd that MCL as a whole is doing 2-3x the sales of Broadway's for Avatar 2. Maybe Broadway's theaters are getting old and they aren't updating to the newest standards? Their screens aren't big enough? It makes sense that they hastily put up a promotion after 2-3 days to let moviegoers get complimentary 3D glasses for every purchase of an Avatar 2 ticket after previous ticket sales were poor.

	Weekend Projections			December 14
Rank	Movie	TW	% chg	Total
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	$4,650,000		$4,650,000

Avatar 2 might not have reached the heights of my prediction but it did come within the low end of my range. Avatar started off with $16,063,512 HK back in 2009 so Avatar 2 will at least double that opening weekend.

Theater chains expectations are definitely mixed. For MCL and Emperor, it is a success. For Broadway, it is a disaster.

My expectations were mostly met. I definitely didn't see that Broadway debacle coming though. I feel like I've aged 84 years in the span of a few days tracking the highs and lows of this movie. There are definitely some positives to take away like a higher user score than Avatar (4.3 vs. 4.0 for Avatar) and MCL/Emperor's ticket sales but also some negatives and question marks that definitely won't be answered until after the holidays.

Opening Sunday pre-sales watch

New Town Plaza					New Town Plaza
	Avatar: The Way of Water 3D	(all v.)				Avatar: The Way of Water
Day	Time	Seats sold	Seats available	% filled	Day	Time	Seats sold	Seats available	% filled
Dec. 18	9:00 AM	100	275	36.36%	Dec. 18	10:45 AM	153	211	72.51%
	9:30 AM	81	84	96.43%		2:20 PM	128	211	60.66%
	10:00 AM	116	227	51.10%		6:00 PM	39	211	18.48%
	10:25 AM	92	167	55.09%		9:40 PM	6	211	2.84%
	11:10 AM	144	242	59.50%
	11:40 AM	152	221	68.78%
	12:40 PM	76	275	27.64%
	1:15 PM	73	84	86.90%
	1:40 PM	89	227	39.21%
	2:50 PM	110	242	45.45%
	3:20 PM	111	221	50.23%
	4:20 PM	85	275	30.91%
	5:00 PM	70	84	83.33%
	5:20 PM	44	227	19.38%
	6:30 PM	23	242	9.50%
	7:00 PM	55	221	24.89%
	8:00 PM	34	275	12.36%
	8:45 PM	59	84	70.24%
	9:00 PM	8	227	3.52%
	10:10 PM	4	242	1.65%
	10:40 PM	7	221	3.17%
Total		1533	4363	35.14%	Total		326	844	38.63%

One last check.

Big jump in both 3D and 2D with 3D filling more than 9% of seats and 2D up 6%. Morning shows are at least half full with one exception. One 3D and one 2D afternoon showing breaks through the halfway mark. Very strong showing here. I wouldn't be surprised if ticket sales exceed 3,000 today at this theater alone.

	Weekend Estimates			December 14
Rank	Movie	TW	% chg	Total
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	$4,210,000		$4,210,000

I did some recalculations and lowered Saturday/Sunday estimates. Estimates that I have seen posted on trade sites and online blogs seem to be too low. Actuals will confirm if it stays above $4m.

Many factors worked against Avatar 2 including COVID-19, no established fanbase, casual moviegoers not turning to see this in droves, long runtime and high ticket prices.

There are some encouraging signs though including Sunday being its best day, WOM looking good-very good, some theaters already having better pre-sales next weekend than this weekend at the same point in time.
_________________________
I did some more tracking at New Town Plaza with Sunday's Avatar 2 ticket sales. Here are the highlights.

- All morning and afternoon regular theater 3D and 2D showings had more than 100 people.
- One showing sold more than 200 tickets
- Every regular theater showing after 10 AM with one exception was more than 50% filled.

This theater had a PTA of $50,000+ on Sunday alone. If every theater sported this PTA for Avatar 2 on Sunday, Avatar 2 would have made 3m+ on Sunday.
_________________________

The brilliance of MCL and Emperor's pricing strategy

This doesn't get talked about enough when it comes to their theater chains succeeding where everyone else either failed or only did OK numbers.

MCL had the amazing strategy to price their 3D and 2D at the same price. They were the only theater chain to do this and it paid off spectacularly. 3D admissions skyrocketed as a result. The smart play was pricing their 2D a little higher than normal but 3D a little lower. This worked in their favour as it encouraged more movie patrons to see it in 3D.

Emperor used a different strategy to get people through their doors. Early morning showings had the lowest ticket prices but late morning and early afternoon were only slightly more expensive than early morning showings. This kept moviegoing viewership high in the early afternoon hours which then bled into their afternoon hours. Contrast this with Broadway, who normally sees two morning showings at the same price including one around 11:30 AM, they only had morning showings before 11 AM and then switched over to afternoon pricing after 11 AM which meant low amounts of moviegoers in the early afternoon and that deadness was reflected with poor showings in the afternoon on Saturday.

After this OW, how much do you think A2 will gross in Hong Kong ? Something like $10M ? $20M ?

		Weekly Gross (Mon-Sun)							Dec 12-18
LW	TW	Title	Last Week (HKD)	This Week (HKD)	Days in release	% chg	Total (HKD)	This Week (USD)	Total (USD)
--	1	Avatar: The Way of Water	--	$30,137,306	5	--	$30,137,306	$3,867,496	$3,867,496
1	2	The Sparring Partner	$2,229,923	$1,178,976	53	-47.1%	$37,975,620	$151,297	$4,873,380
2	3	Hong Kong Family	$2,027,411	$1,070,725	25	-47.2%	$10,994,208	$137,405	$1,410,878
4	4	The Menu	$1,676,634	$639,315	18	-61.9%	$4,082,239	$82,043	$523,870
3	5	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	$1,712,903	$480,420	40	-72.0%	$49,005,940	$61,652	$6,288,892
5	6	Violent Night	$749,354	$340,527	18	-54.6%	$1,752,477	$43,700	$224,894
7	7	That Time I Got Reincarnated As A Slime the Movie: Scarlet Bond	$410,751	$231,762	11	-43.6%	$642,513	$29,742	$82,453
RE	8	Strange World	--	$206,947	25	--	$1,848,558	$26,557	$237,224
6	9	Sword Art Online Progressive: Scherzo of Deep Night	$508,157	$196,914	25	-61.2%	$3,956,971	$25,270	$507,795
10	10	Even If This Love Disappears Tonight	$246,136	$181,496	11	-26.3%	$433,032	$23,291	$55,571

Slightly disappointing - barely OK OW. Theater chain operators were really hoping this would do gangbusters but it does not double Avatar's OW and only made slightly more than Star Wars: The Force Awakens' OW.

10m will be crossed by Monday at the earliest. It should be around 15m after the holidays are over. I think a good target for Avatar 2 is Avatar's original gross of about 22.9m. 30m seems off the table now unless if it has truly outstanding legs.
________________________________________________
Is Avatar 2 going to increase this weekend?

That's the million dollar question here. Let's take a closer look at what is working in favour and against Avatar 2 increasing this weekend.

In favour:

1. Presales are more important than walk-ins
2. Pandemic restrictions end on Wednesday
3. Some theaters are raising their prices
4. Avatar 2 still on the biggest screens
5. Weekend configuration helps Avatar somewhat
6. Possible holiday ticket sales spillage beginning on Friday


Against:

1. 5-day opening weekend vs. regular 4-day 2nd weekend
2. 2nd Thursday

For any holiday period, there's always a rush to buy tickets early. It is imperative that films do well in pre-sales to get extra screens for the holidays. Why? Well, theaters hold back screens to see which films are performing well in pre-sales and which are doing poorly. Those that do well with early pre-sales will typically get the extra screen. This has been the case with Avatar 2 so far.

Pandemic restrictions will end on Wednesday which will give moviegoers more opportunities to get the best seats of the house. For Avatar 2, which has been having trouble with walk-ins at some theaters, this is really good news.

Some theaters are even temporarily raising their ticket prices by $5-$10 beginning on Christmas Eve until the first set of holidays ends on Tuesday. So far, I've counted at least 6 theaters that are doing this, so while not all theaters are employing this tactic to make more money, it will have some positive impact on Avatar 2's 2nd weekend gross.

Avatar 2 will remain on the biggest screens as even low grossing theaters from last week will want to give it the best possible chance at making the most money.

This holiday Christmas weekend configuration isn't the best but it will help Avatar 2 in that both Saturday and Sunday will play like holidays. Christmas Eve is usually depressed when Christmas Day falls on a normal weekday but since it is on a Saturday, this will undeniably help Avatar 2's case for 2nd a weekend increase.

With this weekend configuration, it won't be uncommon to see spillover effect that bleeds into Friday especially at night. I don't expect this holiday bump to seep into Thursday but Friday late afternoon might start seeing a minor gain from last weekend's Friday afternoon showings.

The negatives, however, are that Avatar 2's coming weekend will be judged against Avatar 2's 5-day OW and that Thursday will continue to still be a problem. Can the Saturday/Sunday increase stave off 2nd Thursday's likely week-to-week decrease and the difference of opening Wednesday's gross?

Early Christmas weekend watch

Avatar 2 pre-sales have looked very good so far. Some showings already had more than 100 tickets sold by Monday afternoon. It is outpacing Puss in Boots 2 and The Narrow Road by far in pre-sales. There's not much interest for Puss in Boots 2 but it does see a very noticeable increase in ticket pre-sales on Saturday. The Narrow Road looks like a flop.

Early predictions for this weekend:

Avatar 2 - 3.6m (-7%)/$8.75m total
Puss in Boots 2 - $400-600k
The Narrow Road - 150-200k (250-300k with sneaks included?)

	Thursday adm.	(so far)			December 22
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	25,116	13,501	-46.2%	--
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	--	2,333	--	--
3	The Narrow Road	--	1,196	--	--

OK hold for Avatar 2. It is closer to a 40% drop with pandemic restriction seating taken out from last Thursday.

I'm guesstimating here with Thursday still ongoing but Avatar 2 might decrease 33% from last Thursday when all is said and done.

394,000 (-33%)/$5,585,000

Which theaters are performing the best with Avatar 2 on Christmas Eve?

I did a deep dive into Avatar 2's pre-sales on Saturday and these are the results of the best and the worst performing theaters so far. I only counted ticket sales for regular + premium theaters (no IMAX included).

Best theaters

1. New Town Plaza - 1,201 admissions (2 showings with over 100 people)
2. K11 Art House - 1,049 admissions
3. Telford - 641 admissions :shock:

No surprises with the top 2. Telford is a bit of a shock though. I thought for sure Festival Walk or Elements or Hollywood would take the bronze.

Worst theaters

1. GH Galaxy - 2 admissions
2. Broadway Mongkok - 4 admissions
3. Cinematheque - 12 admissions

Key highlights

- Total for Saturday pre-sales came to 14,257. That would be down about -55% from last Saturday's presales from regular + premium theaters only (no IMAX included) with 1.5 days of pre-selling to go.
- MCL theater chain accounted for almost half of that total.
- MCL is beating Broadway by over 2.5x.
- MCL holds 8 of the top 9 slots of the best performing theaters for Avatar 2.
- 8 theaters recorded a showing of over 100 admissions sold.
- 2 theaters have 2 showings of 100+ people.
- 3 theaters' night time showings have seen the most tickets sold for a single showing, with a 4th theater tying with its night time show
- MCL has the best average admissions per theater. 2nd depends on how you look at it. For any theater, CGV ranks 2nd but out of all the theater chains, Emperor ranks 2nd.

Actuals

1. Avatar 2 - $506,813 (-14.1%)/$5,876,473
2. Puss in Boots 2 - $46,190
3. The Narrow Road - $21,812

Good hold for Avatar 2 from last Thursday's deflated gross. Looks like all weekdays this week have been above $500,000. One of the good things embedded in this hold is that walk-ins made up 40% of Avatar 2's Thursday business which is up from the 65-35 presales to walkins split from last week.

Puss in Boots 2 did very underwhelming business. I think the best it can hope for is tripling its Thursday business on Saturday which would take it to a $450,000 OW. We'll see if word of mouth takes shape. Right now, if it performs just OK, it would only gross about $300,000 this weekend.

The Narrow Road did terribly. Opening weekend is maybe only looking at $135,000.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			December 23
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	28,071	18,946	-32.5%	+28.1%
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	--	2,796	--	+19.8%
3	The Narrow Road	--	1,436	--	+20.1%

Good hold for Avatar 2. Without pandemic restrictions included from last week, it is about a -25% hold. If it can ease just 10-15% today from last Friday, this will set up a solid Christmas Eve/Day to perhaps see its 2nd weekend increase over its 5-day OW.

One thing that I didn't mention is that New Town Plaza's Avatar 2 Christmas Eve pre-sales are up 38.8% from last Sunday's pre-sales with less time of Thursday's check of pre-sales. This, along with better % walk-ins on Thursday, bodes well for an increase on both Saturday/Sunday.

I'm seeing a lot of solid holds from last Friday's 7-8 PM showtimes in regular theaters. Of course, there are a couple of outliers, but in general, showings have sold about 50-60 tickets and holds are somewhere -5% to -25% range from last Friday's nighttime showings. Walk-ins have done steady business today. I'm getting more confident that tomorrow and Sunday will see decent walk-in sales.

IMAX is looking very strong today. The most rural theater's nighttime showing is more than 70% full today which it never saw on its opening weekend. Others have seen their showings at near full capacity.

I think it will get to 32,000 admissions today which is about a 11% drop from last Friday.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			December 24
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	39,341	32,657	-17.0%	+72.4%
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	--	4,756	--	+70.1%
3	To My Nineteen Year Old Self	--	1,882	--	--
4	The Narrow Road	--	1,636	--	+13.9%

Very good hold for Avatar 2. I think it is aiming for about 55-56,000 admissions today. Puss in Boots increased OK. Terrible for The Narrow Road. It actually lost showtimes to Avatar/Puss in Boots and other holdovers. To My Nineteen Year Old Self is just one of many movies having previews this weekend including I Wanna Dance With Somebody, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness, The Tunnel to Summer, The Exit of Goodbyes.

Christmas Eve pre-sales watch

New Town Plaza					New Town Plaza
	Avatar: The Way of Water 3D	(all v.)				Avatar: The Way of Water
Day	Time	Seats sold	Seats available	% filled	Day	Time	Seats sold	Seats available	% filled
Dec. 24	8:45 AM	134	242	55.37%	Dec. 24	9:30 AM	110	211	52.13%
	10:00 AM	78	84	92.86%		1:05 PM	125	211	59.24%
	11:10 AM	129	228	56.58%		4:40 PM	98	211	46.45%
	11:40 AM	159	221	71.95%		8:15 PM	95	211	45.02%
	12:20 PM	121	242	50.00%
	1:40 PM	78	84	92.86%
	2:55 PM	131	275	47.64%
	3:20 PM	155	221	70.14%
	5:20 PM	50	84	59.52%
	6:10 PM	66	242	27.27%
	6:30 PM	14	275	5.09%
	7:00 PM	104	221	47.06%
	9:00 PM	72	84	85.71%
	9:20 PM	82	228	35.96%
	9:50 PM	37	242	15.29%
	10:10 PM	55	275	20.00%
	10:40 PM	29	221	13.12%
Total		1494	3469	43.07%	Total		428	844	50.71%

Avatar 2 increases +3.3% on Christmas Eve from its opening Sunday pre-sales despite the loss of almost 1,000 seats. 9 showings have more than 100 tickets sold with 2 more on the verge of joining the list.

One of the differences of this weekend is that some theaters are raising prices for all films during the holiday period. The increase in price ranges from $5-$15 but there doesn't seem to be many theaters that will use this tactic to generate more revenue.

Merry Christmas to all the readers of this thread!

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			December 25
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	42,159	37,392	-11.3%	+14.5%
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	--	6,156	--	+29.4%
3	The Narrow Road	--	2,314	--	+41.4%

	Weekend Estimates			December 21
Rank	Movie	TW	% chg	Total
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	$3,395,000	-12.2%	$8,765,000
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	$365,000		$365,000
3	The Narrow Road	$180,000		$180,000

The most important weekend of Avatar 2's run will end with it easing 12% off last weekend. Saturday came in -1% from last Saturday so with the lower than expected Christmas Eve take, Christmas Day won't rake in as much money as I thought either. That being said, it should be enough for Christmas Day to increase from opening Sunday in gross. 10m might be crossed on Monday. If not, it definitely will on Tuesday.

Puss in Boots 2 didn't grab many viewers on weekdays but will likely triple its Thursday gross on Sunday. Word of mouth is very strong with a 4.5/5 rating so far.

The Narrow Road, despite good reviews, didn't grab much interest. It will get downgraded next week.

Looks like Sunday night performed worse than expected. I saw a massive slowdown after the 4 PM hour. It's probably looking at a 3.365m 4-day 2nd weekend gross (-13.0%) from opening weekend's 5-day gross. Total is down to 8.735m.

	Monday adm.	(so far)			December 26
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	--	32,181	--	-13.9%
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	--	5,628	--	-8.6%
3	To My Nineteen Year Old Self	--	1,868	--	+19.0%
4	The Narrow Road	--	1,805	--	-22.0%

Decent hold from Christmas Day for Avatar 2. So far holds are almost mirroring MI4 with the exact same weekend configuration. Very strong hold for Puss in Boots similar to what Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked achieved back in 2011 on that very same Monday holiday. Harsh for The Narrow Road.

These types of pre-sales drops post Christmas are standard with this configuration. What matters now is how walk-ins perform.

The most lucrative time of Avatar 2's run is upon us. If it doesn't increase this week (Mon -> Sun) with 3 holidays embedded, then it's going to drop like a rock after the holiday period is over. I see a 7 day gross of about 5.8-6m which would take it to 14.1-14.3m.

Edit: That 14m number would mean that Avatar 2 would overtake Top Gun: Maverick for the highest grossing film of 2022 and land at #8 all time. Both Titanic and Captain America: Civil War will be passed for #6 all time on Monday as Avatar 2 enjoys the last of its Christmas holidays on January 2nd.

What's #1-5 all-time in Hong Kong?

	Top 50 Films of All Time (Hong Kong)
Rank	Movie	HK Gross	US Gross
1	Avengers: Endgame*	$221,895,530	$28,441,141
2	Avatar**	$178,248,295	$22,846,719
3	Avengers: Infinity War***	$153,301,337	$19,649,179
4	Avengers: Age of Ultron****	$133,061,397	$17,054,953
5	Spider-Man: No Way Home	$121,002,669	$15,509,343
6	Titanic*****	$115,306,690	$14,779,269
7	Captain America: Civil War******	$112,654,686	$14,439,353
8	Top Gun: Maverick	$107,756,639	$13,811,552
9	Iron Man 3	$106,389,801	$13,636,360
10	Transformers: Age of Extinction	$98,196,851	$12,586,240
11	The Avengers	$96,705,670	$12,395,110
12	Jurassic World	$96,295,976	$12,342,598
13	Toy Story 3	$89,364,118	$11,454,117
14	Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom	$88,649,003	$11,362,459
15	Toy Story 4	$88,537,419	$11,348,156
16	Spider-Man: Far From Home	$84,788,927	$10,867,699
17	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	$84,703,797	$10,856,787
18	Warriors of Future	$81,888,311	$10,495,917
19	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$81,701,193	$10,471,933
20	The Dark Knight Rises	$80,269,966	$10,288,488
21	Minions	$78,404,191	$10,049,345
22	Monsters University	$77,407,664	$9,921,616
23	Table for Six*	$77,233,553	$9,899,300
24	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	$76,785,999	$9,841,935
25	Captain Marvel	$76,043,088	$9,746,714
26	Aquaman	$75,625,663	$9,693,211
27	Incredibles 2	$71,205,663	$9,126,684
28	Train to Busan	$68,004,629	$8,716,396
29	Beauty and the Beast	$67,232,357	$8,617,411
30	Cold War 2	$66,244,171	$8,490,751
31	Inside Out	$66,016,979	$8,461,631
32	Spider-Man: Homecoming	$65,760,306	$8,428,733
33	Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness	$65,623,783	$8,411,234
34	Black Panther	$63,312,121	$8,114,940
35	Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings	$63,079,202	$8,085,086
36	Anita	$62,519,889	$8,013,397
37	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	$62,286,926	$7,983,537
38	The Amazing Spider-Man	$61,983,852	$7,944,691
39	Jurassic Park	$61,898,795	$7,933,789
40	You Are the Apple of My Eye	$61,862,731	$7,929,167
41	Joker	$61,497,005	$7,882,290
42	Kung Fu Hustle	$61,278,697	$7,854,309
43	Shaolin Soccer	$60,739,847	$7,785,243
44	Mission Impossible: Fallout	$60,449,812	$7,748,068
45	Ip Man 3	$60,261,407	$7,723,919
46	Doctor Strange	$59,793,472	$7,663,942
47	Aladdin	$59,754,798	$7,658,985
48	Furious 7	$59,634,515	$7,643,568
49	The Dark Knight	$58,524,393	$7,501,280
50	Inception	$58,380,823	$7,482,878

* - without re-release (Re-release included: $223,089,935 HK)
** - without re-release (Re-release included: $183,411,471 HK)
*** - without re-release (Re-release included: $154,700,588 HK)
**** - without re-release (Re-release included: $133,072,933 HK)
***** - without re-release (Re-release included: $128,003,033 HK)
****** - without re-release (Re-release included: $113,470,676 HK)
* - still in release

Updated. Many films on this list received re-releases during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. I've decided to post the re-release numbers for the top 10 only. Most of the data is taken from HK MPIA with some exceptions (ie. winter releases or films that play in more than one calendar year)

While there are no surprises that the top of the list are dominated by comic book adaptations, sequels and James Cameron, I am very surprised that there was no 9m Chinese language film before this year. Now, we might potentially have 2 10m grossing Chinese language films!

	Tuesday adm.	(so far)			December 27
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	--	26,377	--	-18.0%
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	--	4,783	--	-15.0%

Ok for both Avatar 2 and Puss in Boots 2. Pre-sales start to take a nosedive on the last holiday with this Christmas configuration.

With this configuration, the upcoming New Year's weekend will see soft drops from the previous week during weekdays and will escalate quickly with steeper drops as New Year's Day approaches.

	Thursday adm.	(so far)			December 29
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	14,789	11,269	-23.8%	-7.3%
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	2,333	2,260	-3.1%	+0.1%
3	The Narrow Road	1,196	923	-22.8%	-6.6%
4	The Fabelmans	--	609	--	--

That's not a great hold for Avatar 2. Tuesday's gross is really worrying because it already sunk below $900,000 despite it being a holiday which means that the 7 day gross from this week might not increase from last week. Very strong from Puss in Boots 2. Its daily increase and week-to-week hold both confirm this. The Narrow Road continues its inconsequential run. Disaster for The Fabelmans.

I will have another update later today provided that full actuals are released.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			December 30
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	18,946	13,861	-26.8%	+23.0%
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	2,796	2,558	-8.5%	+13.2%
3	To My Nineteen Year Old Self	--	1,436	--	--
4	The Narrow Road	1,436	1,346	-6.3%	+45.8%
5	The Fabelmans	--	623	--	+2.3%

Drops are getting larger with pre-sales as evidenced by the top 2 declining more week-to-week than Thursday. The Narrow Road is an interesting case in that it took a couple of days for WOM to spread so it is having the opposite effect for now. The Fabelmans is doing poorly.

Avatar 2 is looking at a 2.645m weekend (-17.2%)/$13.86m total and will fly up to #8 on the all time list ahead of Top Gun: Maverick.

	Top 50 Films of All Time (Hong Kong)
Rank	Movie	HK Gross	US Gross
1	Avengers: Endgame*	$221,895,530	$28,441,141
2	Avatar**	$178,248,295	$22,846,719
3	Avengers: Infinity War***	$153,301,337	$19,649,179
4	Avengers: Age of Ultron****	$133,061,397	$17,054,953
5	Spider-Man: No Way Home	$121,002,669	$15,509,343
6	Titanic*****	$115,306,690	$14,779,269
7	Captain America: Civil War******	$112,654,686	$14,439,353
8	Top Gun: Maverick	$107,756,639	$13,811,552
9	Iron Man 3	$106,389,801	$13,636,360
10	Transformers: Age of Extinction	$98,196,851	$12,586,240
11	The Avengers	$96,705,670	$12,395,110
12	Jurassic World	$96,295,976	$12,342,598
13	Toy Story 3	$89,364,118	$11,454,117
14	Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom	$88,649,003	$11,362,459
15	Toy Story 4	$88,537,419	$11,348,156
16	Spider-Man: Far From Home	$84,788,927	$10,867,699
17	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	$84,703,797	$10,856,787
18	Avatar: The Way of Water*	$83,876,274	$10,761,325
19	Warriors of Future	$81,888,311	$10,495,917
20	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$81,701,193	$10,471,933
21	The Dark Knight Rises	$80,269,966	$10,288,488
22	Minions	$78,404,191	$10,049,345
23	Monsters University	$77,407,664	$9,928,209
24	Table for Six*	$77,356,680	$9,921,670
25	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	$76,785,999	$9,841,935
26	Captain Marvel	$76,043,088	$9,746,714
27	Aquaman	$75,625,663	$9,693,211
28	Incredibles 2	$71,205,663	$9,126,684
29	Train to Busan	$68,004,629	$8,716,396
30	Beauty and the Beast	$67,232,357	$8,617,411
31	Cold War 2	$66,244,171	$8,490,751
32	Inside Out	$66,016,979	$8,461,631
33	Spider-Man: Homecoming	$65,760,306	$8,428,733
34	Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness	$65,623,783	$8,411,234
35	Black Panther	$63,312,121	$8,114,940
36	Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings	$63,079,202	$8,085,086
37	Anita	$62,519,889	$8,013,397
38	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	$62,286,926	$7,983,537
39	The Amazing Spider-Man	$61,983,852	$7,944,691
40	Jurassic Park	$61,898,795	$7,933,789
41	You Are the Apple of My Eye	$61,862,731	$7,929,167
42	Joker	$61,497,005	$7,882,290
43	Kung Fu Hustle	$61,278,697	$7,854,309
44	Shaolin Soccer	$60,739,847	$7,785,243
45	Mission Impossible: Fallout	$60,449,812	$7,748,068
46	Ip Man 3	$60,261,407	$7,723,919
47	Doctor Strange	$59,793,472	$7,663,942
48	Aladdin	$59,754,798	$7,658,985
49	Furious 7	$59,634,515	$7,643,568
50	The Dark Knight	$58,524,393	$7,501,280

* - without re-release (Re-release included: $223,089,935 HK)
** - without re-release (Re-release included: $183,411,471 HK)
*** - without re-release (Re-release included: $154,700,588 HK)
**** - without re-release (Re-release included: $133,072,933 HK)
***** - without re-release (Re-release included: $128,003,033 HK)
****** - without re-release (Re-release included: $113,470,676 HK)
* - still in release

Updated through Tuesday with Avatar 2's full gross added in and Table for Six's new number. There is also a slight adjustment with Monsters U's US gross because the old US gross # fell behind Table for Six's US gross.

I will most likely have another update later today.

Thursday Estimated Actuals

1. Avatar 2 - $421,971 (-16.7%)/$11,633,067
2. Puss in Boots 2 - $48,097 (+4.1%)/$679,771
3. The Narrow Road - $24,497 (+12.3%)/$307,820
4. The Sparring Partner - $14,108 (+15.8%)/5,079,046
5. The Fabelmans - $12,825 (opening day actual)

Good hold for Avatar 2. Strong holds for Puss in Boots 2 and The Narrow Road. Excellent for The Sparring Partner. This has already achieved a 12x multiplier from its opening weekend including sneak previews. What an amazing year for local and Chinese language films. The top 4 Chinese language films (Warriors of Future, Table for Six, Mama's Affair, The Sparring Partner) have combined for a whopping 239.8m HK this year alone! Meanwhile, The Fabelmans ends up losing to a 2 month old film. What a disaster.

Avatar 2 Long Range Discussion - Does Avatar 2 have a shot at beating Avatar's HK gross?

The short answer is yes.

When Avatar came out of the holiday period with 80.3m HK, no one could have expected it to leg out to a 178m HK finish. But it did. Avatar defied all odds the weekend after New Years and still remains the only major movie released before Christmas week in recent years to ever drop less than 50% after New Year's weekend. The weekend after New Year's is typically seen as one of the "holdover death" weekends where all holdovers go to die. Even Chinese New Year with 8 new films didn't faze it either.

Avatar 2's run has been interesting to track so far. It underwhelmed opening weekend then pushed back Christmas weekend to a good hold and now it looks on track to drop less than 20% this weekend. Next weekend is where everything changes. How will it hold? Right now, it is tracking below Avatar's drops, however, it is still pretty much above a lot of winter releases and with IMAX/premium theaters to supplement its gross, the holds won't be drastically awful.

Looking back, Avatar made 54.9% of its run after the New Years' holiday break and is also, I believe, the only film released before Christmas week to gross more after the holidays than during. It also only dropped more than 50% on its very last weekend in theaters during the whole "Battle of the Man's" Saga when it was yanked from its remaining IMAX screen and replaced with Iron Man 2.

Avatar 2 won't follow that run simply because it's a sequel and it started with a much higher OW than Avatar. If that 13.856m prediction is upheld, however, I could see Avatar 2 building towards a 23.09m finish. That means 40% of its gross will come after New Year's Day.

A couple of factors that will help it. It will have IMAX pretty much to itself until February unless if it collapses. If Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania fades fast, I could see Avatar 2 coming back into IMAX on week 3 of Ant-Man's run. Also, if Avatar 2 gets Oscar nominations/wins, we could see an expansion of theaters into March.

Weekends to watch out for:

1. January 5th weekend - Avatar 2's 4th weekend - Weekend after New Year's
2. January 19th weekend - Avatar 2's 6th weekend - Chinese New Year
3. February 16th weekend - Avatar 2's 10th weekend - Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania hits theaters

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			December 31
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	32,657	17,368	-46.8%	+25.3%
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	4,756	2,785	-41.4%	+8.9%
3	To My Nineteen Year Old Self	1,882	2,396	+27.3%	+66.9%
4	The Narrow Road	1,636	2,330	+42.4%	+73.1%

Huge drops in pre-sales for Avatar 2 and Puss in Boots 2. The Narrow Road continues its ascent.

I was looking at a random selection of regular theaters today for Avatar 2 and most seem to be down 40-50% from last Saturday's admissions. If it makes only $675,000 today, that would be about a -36% drop. A couple of regular theaters have dropped about 20% from last Saturday's showtimes but it seems the disparity between IMAX/premium theaters and regular theaters will only grow larger.

The only real saving grace today is that IMAX is down about 5-10% from last Saturday.

Thx for all the updates Blue, I really appreciate them.

Overall, it seems its doing okay in HK, but I hoped for more (I expected it would battle against Avengers).

Yeah, Avatar 2 holds are OK-good so far. I keep waiting for Avatar 2 to perform like a mini-Avatar but it hasn't even done that.

Happy New Year!

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			January 1
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	37,392	16,606	-55.6%	-4.4%
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	6,156	2,827	-54.1%	+1.5%
3	The Narrow Road	2,314	2,186	-5.5%	-6.2%

Bad drops for both Avatar 2/Puss in Boots 2. The Narrow Road is still doing well this weekend.

	Weekend Projections			December 28
Rank	Movie	TW	% chg	Total
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	$2,290,000	-33.8%	$13,480,000
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	$275,000	-20.5%	$905,000
3	The Narrow Road	$175,000	+25.4%	$460,000

This is a very deceiving hold for Avatar 2. It's merely just OK. Weekdays saw better week-to-week holds than New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. With this total, it enters the top 10 all time and will pass Iron Man 3 and Top Gun: Maverick tomorrow for #8. Decent hold for Puss in Boots 2. It will pass 1m by either Wednesday, Thursday or Friday. After last weekend's disastrous start, The Narrow Road pulls it back for an increase this weekend. Unfortunately, it is pretty much too little too late as next weekend will be one of the slowest weekends of the year.
________________________________________
Broadway is following MCL's lead and setting 3D prices the same as 2D for Avatar 2 beginning on Tuesday. The added bonus of cheap Tuesdays means that ticket prices will decrease by HK$40-55 from holiday Monday before returning back to normal levels on Wednesday with an increase of about HK$15 from Tuesday. Overall, 3D prices are reduced by HK$35.

I have to say that it's about time. Avatar 2 has exposed Broadway for their cheap and old ways. They were coasting on their top tier status for ages but now that audiences are in demand to see Avatar 2 on the best screens/theaters, audiences definitively chose MCL/Emperor over Broadway. Broadway has lost millions of HK$ to MCL with Avatar 2 but this feels like a cheap ploy to win back moviegoers. I'm not sure it will work for Avatar 2. Normal movies are playing just fine though.

Really, the most telling sign was when more rural MCL theaters were beating high traffic theaters such as IFC or Pacific Place or even tripling other Broadway theaters with Christmas Eve pre-sales. There's absolutely no excuse for those theaters to lose to rural theaters at all.

	Weekend Estimates			December 28
Rank	Movie	TW	% chg	Total
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	$2,290,000	-33.8%	$13,480,000
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	$275,000	-20.5%	$905,000
3	The Narrow Road	$175,000	+25.4%	$460,000

No changes from projections.

	Monday adm.	(so far)			January 2
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	32,181	15,551	-51.7%	-6.4%
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	5,628	2,593	-53.9%	-8.3%
3	To My Nineteen Year Old Self	1,868	2,482	+32.9%	+27.5%
4	The Narrow Road	1,805	1,982	+9.8%	-9.3%

Still quite big drops in pre-sales for both Avatar 2 and Puss in Boots 2.

For Avatar 2's Sunday and Monday admissions, I took a look at random theaters and it was a mixed bag. Some places doubled or tripled their Sunday admissions from Saturday's showtimes. Most theaters were on the upswing and a couple of theaters were flat from Saturday. Monday's admissions also saw some steep declines from Sunday at some theaters while others increased from Sunday's admissions with a couple flat from Sunday.

The Week Ahead

3 weeks of Avatar 2 predictions. 3 overpredictions. It is definitely a cause for concern when Avatar 2 is down 33% week-to-week on a holiday weekend. It doesn't exactly inspire confidence for the "death" week ahead.

Potential Weekly Breakdown:
Monday - $540,000 (-48.6%)
Tuesday - $160,000
Wednesday - $140,000
Thursday - $130,000 (-69.0%)
Friday - $170,000
Saturday - 250,000 (-62.1%)
Sunday - $245,000

4th weekend: 795,000 (-65.2%)
26-day total: $15,115,000

Note: Monday, Thursday and Saturday holds are week-to-week holds based off of estimate actuals.

By Monday, Avatar 2 will have broken 14m and passed Top Gun: Maverick for #8, however, it will probably be a much tougher road to break 15m, needing the rest of the week to do it. This is really the last chance for Avatar 2 to show something other than just OK-good holds. Next weekend, theaters will start holding sneak previews for upcoming Chinese New Year contenders The First Slam Dunk and A Guilty Conscience.

If this weekend prediction comes to pass, drops should be much lighter from here on out because most of the remaining gross will be coming from IMAX and premium theaters and those are still doing very well.

It is still very unclear as to where Avatar 2 will finish because of IMAX showings and what will happen to them when Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania releases and possible theater expansion due to Oscar nominations and wins.

		Weekly Gross (Mon-Sun)								Dec 26-Jan 1
LW	TW	Title	Last Week (HKD)	This Week (HKD)	Days in release	% chg	Total (HKD)	Last Week (USD)	This Week (USD)	Total (USD)
1	1	Avatar: The Way of Water	$38,792,600	$36,367,947	19	-6.3%	$105,297,853	$4,964,441	$4,654,149	$13,475,380
2	2	Puss In Boots: The Last Wish	$2,819,561	$4,168,954	11	+47.9%	$6,988,515	$360,830	$533,517	$894,347
4	3	The Narrow Road	$1,398,064	$2,125,915	11	+52.1%	$3,523,979	$178,915	$272,061	$450,977
3	4	To My Nineteen Year Old Self	$1,518,184	$1,650,731	0	+8.7%	$3,168,915	$194,287	$211,250	$405,538
5	5	The Sparring Partner	$995,055	$1,173,917	67	+18.0%	$40,144,592	$127,341	$150,230	$5,137,461
6	6	Hong Kong Family	$717,540	$647,591	39	-9.7%	$12,359,339	$91,826	$82,874	$1,581,673
--	7	The Fabelmans	$134,268	$578,312	4	+330.7%	$712,580	$17,182	$74,008	$91,191
--	8	Triangle of Sadness	$29,940	$538,596	4	+1698.9%	$568,536	$3,831	$68,926	$72,757
7	9	The Menu	$489,970	$469,892	32	-4.1%	$5,042,101	$62,703	$60,133	$645,257
8	10	Violent Night	$304,716	$244,905	32	-19.6%	$2,302,098	$38,995	$31,341	$294,608

Note 1: Last week's grosses were calculated using this table and the one published 2 weeks ago.
Note 2: The Menu and Violent Night may not have been ranked #7 and #8 respectively last week.
Note 3: Last Week USD column has been added.

For reference, Avatar 2 made 8.82m ($68,929,906 HK) total up to Christmas Day.

Disappointing week for Avatar 2. It had 3 holidays and wasn't able to increase from last week. Puss in Boots 2/The Narrow Road both saw strong increases from last week. The Fabelmans flopped hard with over 40 theaters showing this while Triangle of Sadness performed very well with only 7 theaters screening it.

	Top 50 Films of All Time (Hong Kong)
Rank	Movie	HK Gross	US Gross
1	Avengers: Endgame*	$221,895,530	$28,441,141
2	Avatar**	$178,248,295	$22,846,719
3	Avengers: Infinity War***	$153,301,337	$19,649,179
4	Avengers: Age of Ultron****	$133,061,397	$17,054,953
5	Spider-Man: No Way Home	$121,002,669	$15,509,343
6	Titanic*****	$115,306,690	$14,779,269
7	Captain America: Civil War******	$112,654,686	$14,439,353
8	Top Gun: Maverick	$107,756,639	$13,811,552
9	Iron Man 3	$106,389,801	$13,636,360
10	Avatar: The Way of Water*	$105,297,853	$13,475,380
11	Transformers: Age of Extinction	$98,196,851	$12,586,240
12	The Avengers	$96,705,670	$12,395,110
13	Jurassic World	$96,295,976	$12,342,598
14	Toy Story 3	$89,364,118	$11,454,117
15	Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom	$88,649,003	$11,362,459
16	Toy Story 4	$88,537,419	$11,348,156
17	Spider-Man: Far From Home	$84,788,927	$10,867,699
18	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	$84,703,797	$10,856,787
19	Warriors of Future	$81,888,311	$10,495,917
20	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$81,701,193	$10,471,933
21	The Dark Knight Rises	$80,269,966	$10,288,488
22	Minions	$78,404,191	$10,049,345
23	Table for Six*	$77,460,655	$9,912,945
24	Monsters University	$77,407,664	$9,906,164
25	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	$76,785,999	$9,841,935
26	Captain Marvel	$76,043,088	$9,746,714
27	Aquaman	$75,625,663	$9,693,211
28	Incredibles 2	$71,205,663	$9,126,684
29	Train to Busan	$68,004,629	$8,716,396
30	Beauty and the Beast	$67,232,357	$8,617,411
31	Cold War 2	$66,244,171	$8,490,751
32	Inside Out	$66,016,979	$8,461,631
33	Spider-Man: Homecoming	$65,760,306	$8,428,733
34	Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness	$65,623,783	$8,411,234
35	Black Panther	$63,312,121	$8,114,940
36	Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings	$63,079,202	$8,085,086
37	Anita	$62,519,889	$8,013,397
38	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	$62,286,926	$7,983,537
39	The Amazing Spider-Man	$61,983,852	$7,944,691
40	Jurassic Park	$61,898,795	$7,933,789
41	You Are the Apple of My Eye	$61,862,731	$7,929,167
42	Joker	$61,497,005	$7,882,290
43	Kung Fu Hustle	$61,278,697	$7,854,309
44	Shaolin Soccer	$60,739,847	$7,785,243
45	Mission Impossible: Fallout	$60,449,812	$7,748,068
46	Ip Man 3	$60,261,407	$7,723,919
47	Doctor Strange	$59,793,472	$7,663,942
48	Aladdin	$59,754,798	$7,658,985
49	Furious 7	$59,634,515	$7,643,568
50	The Dark Knight	$58,524,393	$7,501,280

* - without re-release (Re-release included: $223,089,935 HK)
** - without re-release (Re-release included: $183,411,471 HK)
*** - without re-release (Re-release included: $154,700,588 HK)
**** - without re-release (Re-release included: $133,072,933 HK)
***** - without re-release (Re-release included: $128,003,033 HK)
****** - without re-release (Re-release included: $113,470,676 HK)
* - still in release

Avatar 2 soars into the top 10 with updated total. Table for Six moves to #23. There is also a slight adjustment with Monsters U's US gross because the old US gross # was ahead of Table for Six's updated US gross.

Where does Avatar 2 go from here?

Last post, I said that the landscape for Avatar 2's final total is still unclear. It is because it will come down to how well Avatar 2 performs in IMAX, VIP theaters and how Oscar nominations/wins affects its run.

Here's what I'm thinking.

Avatar 2's run ends in February: 18-21m
Avatar 2's run continues into March with expansion from Oscar nominations/wins: 22-26m

It is a foregone conclusion that Avatar 2 will retain its IMAX screens through Chinese New Year. That should easily net another 2-4m in IMAX from the entire CNY holiday window (7-10 days depending on weekend configuration, not just the 3 CNY holidays)

What will be interesting to watch is how well it performs end of January into February in both IMAX and premium theaters. I've already considered regular theaters as a lost cause but both IMAX and premium theaters added together can make upwards of about $700,000 alone for a 4-day weekend.
_____________
Now to some Avatar 2 box office news from Collider about IMAX

Hello bluebomb, do you have the exact number of all the admissions of Titanic, Endgame, Avatar 1, Infinity war and No way home with all the re-release taken into account ? Thank you

I am not sure if HKBO tracks admissions. If they do, those aren't released to the public. You would need to be in the industry or media to access that kind of data if it's available.

	Thursday adm.	(so far)			January 5
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Avatar: The Way of Water	11,269	5,059	-55.1%	--
2	Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre	--	974	--	--
3	The Narrow Road	923	770	-16.6%	--
4	I Wanna Dance With Somebody	--	468	--	--
5	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish	2,260	362	-84.0%	--
6	The Tunnel to Summer, The Exit of Goodbyes	--	355	--	--

Decent hold for Avatar 2. If it can lose only 50% from last weekend, that would be a stellar hold.

Boring day as none of the other films cleared 1,000 admissions in pre-sales. Not listed in the chart is The Fabelmans which fell out of the top 10 down 82% from opening day pre-sales.
________________________________________
Megabox IMAX is increasing their Avatar 2 afternoon/evening showing prices for all sets of people by $10 beginning this week. An extra $10 means during the CNY period, it could gross almost an extra US$2,000 for the Sunday-Wednesday CNY public holiday period with 51% capacity per showing on top of what they were charging the first 3 weeks of release.

This seems very small but add in every single day's afternoon/evening shows from this IMAX theater from now till the end of its run and it could tally over $20,000 from this additional charge alone. Every little bit helps Avatar 2 swim higher to the top of the leaderboard.

Nice to see Operation Fortune is playing somewhere. I believe it's also out in Slovakia. I hope it eventually gets a U.S. release, but I'm not holding my breath. I suspect it will go to streaming. It feels like the type of film that will release in China 18 months after the rest of the world.