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 HK 8/22 WKD: Alien: Romulus repeats 
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Star Trek XI

Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:22 am
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Post Re: HK 11/19 THU: Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba reigns on t
Feel good to have my estimates being true using WMOOV as indication.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... d=99545471

Not really a great performance in Hong Kong, even today is looking like a mid 40s drop from last week or higher.


Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:20 am
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Post Re: HK 11/19 THU: Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba reigns on t
Saturday update:

Demon Slayer has just crossed 50,000 admissions at 7 PM. This is very troubling news.

All signs point to the rise in number of COVID-19 infections being the culprit. The Hong Kong-Singapore travel bubble, which was set to go into effect tomorrow, is now postponed for 2 weeks. At the rate at which infection cases are being confirmed (20s yesterday, 40s today, 60's preliminary tomorrow), we may see a shutdown of theaters as early as next week.

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Sat Nov 21, 2020 7:16 am
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Post Re: HK 11/19 THU: Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba reigns on t
And here I was planning my trip to HK :P


Sat Nov 21, 2020 7:43 am
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Post Re: HK 11/19 THU: Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba reigns on t
All films are suffering on Sunday with Demon Slayer dropping over 10% in admissions from Saturday. It currently has amassed 47,214 in admissions so far.

Demon Slayer is looking at a 2nd weekend of about $650,000-$750,000 for a weekend drop of over -60%.

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Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:23 am
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Post Re: HK 11/19 THU: Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba reigns on t
Darn it!


Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:34 am
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Post Re: HK 11/19 THU: Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba reigns on t
Per my est, HK$6.5mn weekend (-54%) and HK$24.1mn total. The trend was really not there in weekdays.


Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:43 pm
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Post Re: HK 11/19: Demon Slayer on top with possible shutdown loo
charlie jat wrote:
Per my est, HK$6.5mn weekend (-54%) and HK$24.1mn total. The trend was really not there in weekdays.

The trend that usually applies to animation movies wasn't there. If coronavirus cases hadn't spiked so quickly, this would have made over 1m US this weekend easily.

Weekend Estimates

1. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - $800,000 (-57.3%)/$3,050,000

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Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:59 am
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Post Re: HK 11/19: Demon Slayer on top with possible shutdown loo
I've been monitoring Demon Slayer's admissions for the past 4 days and it hasn't looked great. Not many pre-sales and slow walk-ins have been the case with it adding only a few thousand admissions from morning to night.

Total for the 4 days (including today) is around $100-140k.

Thursday estimates

1. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - $25,000 (-79.6%)/$3,170,000

I wonder if theaters will close again. Maybe they are waiting till the COVID-19 case count hits triple digits first before doling out more restrictions.

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Thu Nov 26, 2020 7:14 am
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Post Re: HK 11/19: Demon Slayer on top with possible shutdown loo
Hong Kong is having less than 100 daily cases of covid-19, and total nº of cases is close to 6.000.

Is a shutdown really required?
Let's hope they can control this wave effectively.


Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:02 pm
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Post Re: HK 11/19: Demon Slayer on top with possible shutdown loo
Theaters will close on Wednesday (December 2) for 2 weeks.

ARQandARG wrote:
Hong Kong is having less than 100 daily cases of covid-19, and total nº of cases is close to 6.000.

Is a shutdown really required?
Let's hope they can control this wave effectively.

I would shutdown.

Hong Kong is a very densely populated place. It's better to stop the outbreak in its early stages rather than letting it balloon to thousands of cases per day.

Hong Kong also broke through 100 cases yesterday with 115. This outbreak is proving to be the fastest growing outbreak out of the previous 4. It took more than 2 weeks for the last outbreak to grow from single digits to triple digits whereas this one was achieved in 11 days.

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Mon Nov 30, 2020 5:48 am
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Post Re: HK: Avatar 2 now pre-selling! Out Dec. 14
Avatar 2 will be released on December 14 at 6 PM.

The theater schedules are slowly trickling in. It's day 1 and already the earliest showing in 1 IMAX theater (December 14 @ 6 PM) is already 58% full.

I expect this to become the biggest all time grossing movie of all time in HK and gross over $300m HK.

I will post another update on Avatar soon.

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Fri Nov 25, 2022 8:17 am
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Post Re: HK: Avatar 2 now pre-selling! Out Dec. 14
That's, like, $38 million USD. Wow, from just one small market like Hong Kong. Insane if that plays out. Can't wait.

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Mon Nov 28, 2022 6:09 am
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Post Re: HK: Avatar 2 now pre-selling! Out Dec. 14
Avatar 2

Ticket prices

Ticket prices for Avatar 2 are much more expensive this time around than when Avatar was released back in 2009. In the business district alone, one 3D ticket in the afternoon and evening costs $75 HK more than Avatar's ticket price ($225 HK [$28.81 US] vs $150 [$19.21 US]). Morning showing is $180 HKD. In one Central theater, tickets cost $235 HK for 3D, the most expensive regular (non-IMAX, non 4DX, etc.) theater in HK. Everywhere else, a non morning 3D ticket costs anywhere between $100-$230 HK.

In IMAX, adult ticket prices range from $240-$270 HK ($30.73-$34.57 US) in the morning and $260-290 HK ($33.29-$37.13 US) after the morning showing.

Both sets of prices are in line for a blockbuster of this size. There is a general unwritten rule of thumb that for every 10 minutes that a film goes over 140 minutes, theaters will add a $5-$10 surcharge. Add in a blockbuster surcharge and that's why you get these types of prices.

Pre-sales

In IMAX, pre-sales are doing decently. There's still 2 weeks left before the film opens and weekday showings have gotten some action in pre-sales. The bulk of the ticket purchases so far have been for Wednesday night at 6 PM and the weekend showings including Friday night. One showing is already up to 89% full with quite a few back rows booked (not for public sale). The faster selling IMAX pre-sales theaters are about 40% and up for weekend showings. The most rural IMAX theater is selling at about 5-10% so far.

In regular theaters, pre-sales have been slow but I recall, Avatar being a heavy walk in film. Back in 2009, when it went up against Twilight: New Moon, Twilight pre-sales were very strong and were beating Avatar's in quite a few locations but that all changed with walk-ins.

I am not really concerned about the lack of pre-sales yet in regular theaters. It seems traction will get going after IMAX 3D showings sell out first. The order of ticket sales to go will be IMAX 3D then 3D then 2D.

Factors

1. 3D share

In 2009, Avatar opened with over 90% 3D market share of showings. This time, it won't have that luxury. However, if it is able to retain 65% 3D showings on opening weekend, I will consider that a success.

2. Weekday showings

The 3 hour plus running time will surely push ticket sales to weekend showings, however, if weekday showings are very slow, then that will be a indicator of Avatar 2 not playing as well as it should.

3. The "Graphics"

Lots of repeat business for Avatar came because of the beautiful scenery and the feeling of escaping to another world. If Avatar 2 can replicate that, it should play very strongly into the New Year.

Early box office calculations

If Avatar 2 sells out 75% of seats in IMAX with an average ticket price of $255 HK, it would make over $580,000 in IMAX alone and would easily obtain the biggest IMAX PSA ever with over $116K and probably the biggest IMAX weekend ever.

I think conservatively, it is aiming for about 4.5m OW. High end seems to be about 6m OW. We'll know a lot more closer to opening day.

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Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:09 pm
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Post Re: HK: Avatar 2 now pre-selling! Out Dec. 14
Avatar 2 Opening Day Pre-sales Part 1

Let's take a look at some Avatar 2 opening day pre-sales today. All theaters are still under some COVID-19 restrictions with only 85% capacity allowed to be filled.

Early Avatar 2 reviews are spilling out onto social media and they seem to be overwhelmingly positive. This will surely give a huge boost to pre-sales in the coming days.

B+ Cinema APM
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D(all v.)
DayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filled
Dec. 146:00 PM62422.48%
6:00 PM344477.27%
8:00 PM111427.75%
9:35 PM102424.13%
9:35 PM334475.00%
Total9471413.17%

This theater is so far showing 3D + 3D 4DX. The 44 seater is the 3D 4DX version while the bigger seat numbers are the regular 3D version.

This is one of the worst pre-selling theaters at the moment. I will, however, say that in the past couple of days at most movie theaters, pre-sales have seen an uptick. It's not a full blown movement yet but optimal showings that were previously empty have seen someone bought tickets.

The 4DX version is doing quite well a week out. The weekend is also seeing most 4DX showtimes close to or at 50% capacity filled.

Telford
Avatar: The Way of Water(all v.)
DayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filled
Dec. 146:00 PM1510015.00%
6:30 PM598966.29%
7:00 PM81296.20%
9:40 PM41004.00%
10:10 PM348938.20%
10:40 PM41293.10%
Total12463619.50%

This is one of the better selling theaters for Avatar 2.

The 89 seat showings are the 3D MX4D version while the rest are either 3D or 2D.

2D is doing better here than 3D in pre-sales which is a bit of a surprise.

iSquare IMAX
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D
DayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filled
Dec. 146:00 PM31332097.81%
Total31332097.81%
At the fastest selling IMAX theater for Avatar 2 so far, no surprises here as the opening day showtime is nearly sold out. There is no 9:30 PM showing for public sale yet. It could mean that someone has already booked the venue already for a private showing or the theater will release the showtime later.

Bonus

iSquare IMAX
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D
DayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filled
Dec. 259:00 AM8532026.56%
12:40 PM14232044.38%
4:20 PM17132053.44%
8:05 PM12132037.81%
11:45 PM123203.75%
Total531160033.19%
Christmas Day pre-selling is out at this IMAX theater and the best selling showtime is already 50% full.

From Dec. 23-26, this theater will have 5 Avatar 2 showings in one day. It's pretty shrewd of them to schedule 5 Avatar 2 showings on the same screen in one day.

There are definitely some other ways of getting around the 4 showtime limit per screen and I will share that information with you in the next Avatar 2 update.

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Tue Dec 06, 2022 9:51 pm
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Post Re: HK: Avatar 2 now pre-selling! Out Dec. 14
Welcome back, Bluebomb! Almost 2 years to the date! Glad you've returned.

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Thu Dec 08, 2022 12:21 pm
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Post Re: HK: Avatar 2 now pre-selling! Out Dec. 14
Corpse wrote:
Welcome back, Bluebomb! Almost 2 years to the date! Glad you've returned.

Thank you. I almost didn't come back.
___________________

Mini-update: Today will be a crucial day for Avatar 2.

Theaters will release their Mon-Wed schedules later tonight. Avatar 2 must perform well in pre-sales today to book more screens for Wednesday. With some regular theaters being bare, I am not sure if some theater operators will give other screens to holdovers if pre-sales are weak today.

One thing that is working in Avatar 2's favour is that ticket sales for films playing right now haven't been great. Theater operators may just end up giving all the screens to Avatar anyway with no film expected to make over $500,000 this weekend.

One thing that I have noticed is that there was a mini-wave of people who bought tickets after the first social media reactions came out. The business district, especially, saw the biggest jump in pre-sales. Pacific Place's 8 PM showing on Friday night surged 366% in admissions (from 6 -> 28) in one day.

I took a look at Avatar 2's opening Thursday pre-sales at Festival Walk and they look pretty dire. Only 69 3D admissions and 50 2D admissions so far which include blocked off seats that theaters will sometime use to make it seem like the theater is not empty. Weekend pre-sales are doing better with an increase of about 100%.

IMAX is still looking very good with admissions spread out throughout the entire weekend.

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Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:30 pm
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Post Re: HK: Does a $21.19 2D adult ticket offset fewer showings?
The effect of high ticket prices with a long running blockbuster

How does a blockbuster with a long running time such as Avatar 2 compare with shorter blockbusters at the same theater?

At The ONE, 2D showings have come out for Avatar 2. Adult tickets are being priced at $165 HK (US$21.19). At this theater, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is priced at $135 HK (US$17.34) with a 161 minute runtime for one 2D adult ticket. I've also decided to see how a 2 hour blockbuster with an additional $10 HK blockbuster surcharge in 2D would compare with both on the biggest screen here.

The rundown:

Avatar 2 - $165 HK * 136 seats * 4 showings = $89,760 HK maximum sales on one screen
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - $135 HK * 136 seats * 5 showings = $91,800 HK maximum sales on one screen
2 hour blockbuster with added $10 blockbuster surcharge: $115 HK * 136 seats * 6 showings = $93,840 HK maximum sales one screen

This answers the question: Do higher ticket prices offset less showtimes? No, it doesn't. If anything, it is more profitable to have a 2 hour blockbuster movie with an added $10 surcharge than to have a 193 minute long blockbuster with higher ticket prices but less showtimes per screen.

What are theaters doing to work around this problem?

Well, last time, we looked at how IMAX would schedule their 5th Avatar 2 showing near midnight but another theater has taken the opposite approach to scheduling Avatar 2 with 5 showtimes on one screen.

At Emperor Ma On Shan, they have booked the earliest showing of Avatar 2 on Saturday for 8 AM. Normally, theaters start the earliest showings of films at 8:30 AM and even then, it's considered as pretty undesirable for a lot of people to watch. However, at Ma On Shan, this 8 AM showing is already more than 10% full.

Opening Night Pre-sales

Today, I am going to use a different approach and look at opening night raw admissions for 2 of the biggest movie theater chains in HK.

Emperor - 3D: 455 admissions sold, 2D: 134 admissions sold. Total = 589 admissions

Note: These admissions do not include IMAX but does have small VIP houses included.

With an average ticket price of $165 HK, total gross for these 7 theaters is $97,185 HK. That's about $12,500 US from these 7 theaters.

MCL - 3D: 1,321 admissions sold, 2D: 515 admissions sold. Total = 1,836 admissions

Note: These admissions do not include IMAX but does have small VIP houses included as well as blocked off seats.

At this movie theater chain, 3D and 2D are the same price. With an average ticket price of $150 HK, total gross for these 15 theaters is $275,400 HK. That's about $35,500 US from these 15 theaters.

Pre-sales for opening night seem to be over $100,000 US so far if you include all other movie theaters in HK. Unlike in other places like China or India where pre-sales are hot, here, it is a lot more muted. It's hard to tell but it could have something to do with the COVID-19 pandemic or prices are just too high for people to purchase tickets.

Maybe Avatar 2 will have Pandora levels of walk-ins.

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Sat Dec 10, 2022 10:55 pm
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Post Re: HK: Avatar 2 Thursday schedules out
Thursday schedules

Note: All holdovers are leaving Wednesday unless otherwise specified.

Broadway

B+ Cinema APM
NewHoldoversLeaving
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D - 8 showings (▲ 5)Confession - 1 showing (=)Even If This Love Disappears Tonight
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D 4DX - 3 showings (▲ 2)Hong Kong Family - 3 showings (▼ 5)That Time I Got Reincarnated As A Slime the Movie: Scarlet Bond
Avatar: The Way of Water - 7 showings (▲ 2)The Sparring Partner - 2 showings (▼ 4)Sadako DX (Tue.)
Table for Six - 0 showings; 1 Fri.Men of Plastic (Tue.)
Violent Night
The Menu
Sword Art Online Progressive: Scherzo of Deep Night 4DX
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 4DX (Tue.)
At Broadway, Avatar 2 gets about 4-5 screens each. Hong Kong Family is the main holdover here with half day showtimes at almost all locations while The Sparring Partner is the secondary holdover with about 1-3 showtimes playing in about half of Broadway's theaters. The rest, including Black Panther 2, will be severely cut.

Emperor

Times Square
NewHoldoversLeaving
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D - 8 showings (▲ 2)The Menu - 1 showing (▼ 3)Sadako DX
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D Atmos - 3 showings (▲ 1)The Sparring Partner - 1 showing (▼ 4)Hong Kong Family
Avatar: The Way of Water - 7 showings (▲ 2)Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Table for Six
Mama's Affair
Avatar 2 receives 3-4 screens here. The only holdover is split between The Sparring Partner, Hong Kong Family and The Menu at this theater chain with only 1 showtime a day.

MCL

Telford
NewHoldoversLeaving
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D - 10 showings (▲ 4)That Time I Got Reincarnated As A Slime the Movie: Scarlet Bond - 3 showings (▼ 5)And So the Baton Has Passed
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D MX4D - 4 showings (▲ 2)Hong Kong Family - 1 showing (▼ 3)The Menu
Avatar: The Way of Water - 6 showings (▲ 3)The Sparring Partner - 1 showing (▼ 4)Violent Night
Decibel
Toku Touken Ranbu - Hanamaru: Hana No Maki (Tue.)
Sword Art Online Progressive: Scherzo of Deep Night
Sword Art Online Progressive: Scherzo of Deep Night MX4D
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever MX4D
Avatar 2 gets 4-6 screens here. The Sparring Partner edges out Hong Kong Family and The Menu here as the main holdover. Black Panther 2 is gone from 2/3 of theaters.

Overall, I expected more showings for Avatar 2 but the lack of pre-sales in regular theaters meant theater chains had more leeway to give showtimes to holdovers.

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Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:46 pm
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Post Re: HK 12/14 PRE: Avatar 2 comes back from the abyss
Wednesday adm.(so far)December 14
RankMovieLWTWWKD % chgQD % chg
1Avatar: The Way of Water--14,595----
Considering where Avatar 2 was in pre-sales just 48 hours ago, this is a decent number. There was a wave of people who bought tickets in the last 24 hours at most theaters so this leads me to believe that walk-ins will be strong. It should make at least $500,000 today.

5 day OW prediction: 5,500,000

That would more than double Avatar's OW.

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Tue Dec 13, 2022 3:17 pm
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Post Re: HK 12/14 PRE: Avatar 2 comes back from the abyss
Part 2 of Avatar 2 Opening Night Pre-sales

Let's check back in on Avatar 2's opening night pre-sales.

Broadway

B+ Cinema APMB+ Cinema APM
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D(all v.)Avatar: The Way of Water
DayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filledDayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filled
Dec. 146:00 PM4824219.83%Dec. 146:20 PM288433.33%
6:00 PM384486.36%9:50 PM138415.48%
7:00 PM149614.58%
8:00 PM5414238.03%
8:45 PM0970.00%
9:35 PM242429.92%
9:35 PM424495.45%
Total22090724.26%Total4116824.40%
4DX continues to be stellar here with the 9:35 showing even beating the 6 PM showtime. The 7 PM and 8:45 PM showings were added a few days ago. Same with the 2D showings which look decent.

At other Broadway locations, Kingswood, Tsuen Wan, Hong Kong Island theaters, Elements and Yoho Mall are leading the pack with The ONE and Cinematheque straggling at the back.

MCL

TelfordTelford
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D(all v.)Avatar: The Way of Water
DayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filledDayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filled
Dec. 146:30 PM818991.01%Dec. 146:00 PM3410034.00%
7:00 PM5912945.74%8:15 PM219821.43%
7:45 PM4412634.92%9:40 PM61006.00%
8:45 PM1611114.41%
10:10 PM658973.03%
10:40 PM111298.53%
Total27667341.01%Total6129820.47%
MX4D showings here lead the pack with the 6 PM showtime over 90% full. Regular 3D showings look solid here. 2D is also doing acceptable numbers.

Other MCL theaters have showings close to or above 50 admissions sold highlighted with Festival Walk already selling 128 tickets for one showing.

Avatar 2 Opening Sunday Pre-sales

Let's take a look at the biggest theater's Sunday pre-sales for Avatar 2.

New Town PlazaNew Town Plaza
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D(all v.)Avatar: The Way of Water
DayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filledDayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filled
Dec. 189:00 AM3627513.09%Dec. 1810:45 AM10821151.18%
9:30 AM718484.52%2:20 PM6321129.86%
10:00 AM32271.32%6:00 PM2321110.90%
10:25 AM21671.20%9:40 PM42111.90%
11:10 AM6524226.86%
11:40 AM10622147.96%
12:40 PM182756.55%
1:15 PM668478.57%
1:40 PM42271.76%
2:50 PM3724215.29%
3:20 PM5622125.34%
4:20 PM122754.36%
5:00 PM638475.00%
5:20 PM02270.00%
6:30 PM62422.48%
7:00 PM3422115.38%
8:00 PM82752.91%
8:45 PM488457.14%
9:00 PM02270.00%
10:10 PM42421.65%
10:40 PM72213.17%
Total646436314.81%Total19884423.46%
This is the most profitable theater in Hong Kong.

Here, showings for Sunday have been released for all films. Avatar 2 gets 6/7 screens after the very early morning showing with an added showtime from the 7th screen in the 10 AM hour.

Avatar 2 is playing strongly with the MX4D showtimes with all above 55% capacity filled. Morning showings look very good and 3 PM showtimes are starting to fill up here.

2D has been robust with the morning showing already over 50% full.

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Tue Dec 13, 2022 10:22 pm
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Post Re: HK 12/14 PRE: Avatar 2 comes back from the abyss
Ahhh, MCL Telford. My regular cinema when I went to Hong Kong.

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Wed Dec 14, 2022 5:31 am
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Post Re: HK 12/14 PRE: Avatar 2 comes back from the abyss
Part 3 of Avatar 2 Opening Night Pre-sales

It's 5:30 PM. One last check of opening night pre-sales.

Broadway

B+ Cinema APMB+ Cinema APM
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D(all v.)Avatar: The Way of Water
DayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filledDayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filled
Dec. 146:00 PM8724235.95%Dec. 146:20 PM438451.19%
6:00 PM434497.73%9:50 PM168419.05%
7:00 PM239623.96%
8:00 PM6314244.37%
8:45 PM7977.22%
9:35 PM2724211.16%
9:35 PM424495.45%
Total29290732.19%Total5916835.12%

Average admissions per showing: 39

TelfordTelford
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D(all v.)Avatar: The Way of Water
DayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filledDayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filled
Dec. 146:30 PM848994.38%Dec. 146:00 PM4210042.00%
7:00 PM7912961.24%8:15 PM239823.47%
7:45 PM4812638.10%9:40 PM81008.00%
8:45 PM2011118.02%
10:10 PM658973.03%
10:40 PM1312910.08%
Total30967345.91%Total7329824.50%

Average admissions per showing: 42

Many theaters have recorded showings of 50 admissions sold or more. About 5 or slightly more theaters have recorded showings with 100+ admissions sold.

To me, these opening night admission numbers across the board are very respectable. It's not Avengers: Endgame levels but it doesn't need to be. It will continue to build on its WOM leading into the Christmas and New Year's holidays.

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Wed Dec 14, 2022 5:51 am
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Post Re: HK 12/14 WED: Walk-ins provide hope for Avatar 2
Wednesday admissions:

Estimate between 22,000 - 25,000 admissions (6,500-9,500 walk-in admissions)

The admissions site that I normally use saw Avatar go down in admissions more than 5 times yesterday.

3D share: 61.9% from 386 showings

3D was pretty close to that threshold that I set for Avatar 2. Theaters might be more inclined to give it more 3D showings this weekend since most are choosing to see it in 3D.

OD estimate: US$525,000

IMAX accounted for about US$70,000 (or about 13%) of its OD gross. It is well on its way to getting the IMAX PSA record.

WOM so far has been very good with a 4.5/5 rating for 8 users.

Thursday adm.(so far)December 15
RankMovieLWTWWKD % chgQD % chg
1Avatar: The Way of Water--25,116--+72.1%
If this number is accurate, then it is a good number.

I only had Avatar 2 making $550,000 on Thursday but with this number, it seems like it can go up to $750,000 for today.

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Wed Dec 14, 2022 5:43 pm
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Post Re: HK 12/14 WED: Walk-ins provide hope for Avatar 2
Thursday admissions: about 30,000 admissions (8,000 walk-ins for entire day)

Opening Thursday estimate - $625,000
2-day total: $1,080,000

3D share: 61% (from 931 showings)

I have revised my Wednesday estimate downward because I might have priced the average ticket price too high ($180 HK vs. 170+ HK) and I took out some pandemic restriction seats from the admissions total. Some theaters' blocked off pandemic restriction seats are counted into the admissions.

Friday adm.(so far)December 16
RankMovieLWTWWKD % chgQD % chg
1Avatar: The Way of Water--28,071--+11.8%
Bad pre-sales number if true. That means Avatar's Friday morning and afternoon pre-sales are worse than Thursday's. There wasn't much of a lift in admissions with Friday night showings.

You may have noticed that I have not been posting final admissions for Avatar 2 the past few days. That is because the website that I take them from has seen Avatar 2's admissions go down several times a day. The reason for this is because some Avatar 2 showings together with those admissions are erased from its total admissions. Yesterday's admissions started off with 931 showings and then gradually decreased throughout the day. At last check, I saw Avatar 2's showings down to just 715 showings. For this reason, I will only be posting that day's pre-sales due to all shows being counted at that time.

Opening Sunday pre-sales watch

Checking back at the biggest theater for Avatar 2's Sunday pre-sales...

New Town PlazaNew Town Plaza
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D(all v.)Avatar: The Way of Water
DayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filledDayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filled
Dec. 189:00 AM4927517.82%Dec. 1810:45 AM12421158.77%
9:30 AM758489.29%2:20 PM8721141.23%
10:00 AM3322714.54%6:00 PM3321115.64%
10:25 AM2516714.97%9:40 PM42111.90%
11:10 AM10124241.74%
11:40 AM11122150.23%
12:40 PM262759.45%
1:15 PM698482.14%
1:40 PM2722711.89%
2:50 PM4824219.83%
3:20 PM6622129.86%
4:20 PM222758.00%
5:00 PM688480.95%
5:20 PM92273.96%
6:30 PM102424.13%
7:00 PM4022118.10%
8:00 PM162755.82%
8:45 PM538463.10%
9:00 PM62272.64%
10:10 PM42421.65%
10:40 PM72213.17%
Total865436319.83%Total24884429.38%
Yikes. Avatar 2 hasn't moved much since 2 days ago in pre-sales. It has only sold 279 tickets (5% only!) since the last update 2 days ago.

If Avatar 2 continues on this trajectory, Saturday and Sunday may not even begin with 40,000 pre-sale admissions and it may end up with a 5 day OW of 3.8-4m.

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Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:59 pm
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Post Re: HK 12/16 FRI: Avatar 2 poised for breakout after strong
Friday admissions: about 40,000 admissions (15,000 walk-ins for the entire day)

Friday night was very good for Avatar 2. Many theaters recorded at least 1 showing close to or above 100 admissions sold.

Walk-ins were slightly better on Friday morning/afternoon compared with Thursday morning/afternoon showings but night time saw the brunt of Avatar 2's walk-ins. Case in point, one theater recorded only 4 admissions with one of its Thursday 7 PM's showtimes but 48 tickets were sold in the same house on Friday night at the same time. That is a 1100% increase from Thursday's showing.

Opening Friday estimate - $870,000
3-day total: $1,950,000

I didn't give a breakdown of my 5.5m weekend prediction earlier but it's performing similar to how I expected Avatar 2 would perform.

Breakdown:
Wed: $500,000
Thu: $550,000
Fri: $950,000
Sat: $1,800,000
Sun: $1,700,000

Some of you might be wondering why Avatar 2's Saturday/Sunday takings are so high. That's because it is performing like a kid's movie with strong pre-sales on the weekend. Friday night's walk-ins have shaped how it will perform today and tomorrow.

It will take in anywhere from 30,000-45,000 admissions from walk-ins alone today and tomorrow.

Saturday adm.(so far)December 17
RankMovieLWTWWKD % chgQD % chg
1Avatar: The Way of Water--39,341--+40.1%
Good number for Avatar 2. It still has a lot to do with some showings quite bare but Friday night's walk-ins have definitely turned the tide. WOM seems to be kicking in now.

Opening Sunday pre-sales watch

I had to see if there was any monumental change for Avatar 2's Sunday pre-sales with the explosion of admissions last night and the results are in.

New Town PlazaNew Town Plaza
Avatar: The Way of Water 3D(all v.)Avatar: The Way of Water
DayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filledDayTimeSeats soldSeats available% filled
Dec. 189:00 AM6727524.36%Dec. 1810:45 AM14021166.35%
9:30 AM788492.86%2:20 PM9521145.02%
10:00 AM5422723.79%6:00 PM3521116.59%
10:25 AM5916735.33%9:40 PM42111.90%
11:10 AM11624247.93%
11:40 AM13622161.54%
12:40 PM4127514.91%
1:15 PM708483.33%
1:40 PM5322723.35%
2:50 PM8524235.12%
3:20 PM8622138.91%
4:20 PM4427516.00%
5:00 PM698482.14%
5:20 PM2322710.13%
6:30 PM142425.79%
7:00 PM4022118.10%
8:00 PM262759.45%
8:45 PM538463.10%
9:00 PM82273.52%
10:10 PM42421.65%
10:40 PM72213.17%
Total1133436325.97%Total27484432.46%
There have been some notable improvements in pre-sales over the past day here at the biggest theater. Some of Avatar 2's 3D afternoon showings have doubled since yesterday's update and all 3D morning showings on regular screens have seen a % increase of 5% or more. Night shows continue to lag behind but that is expected with the long runtime.

Overall, this theater has recorded 1,407 tickets so far for Avatar 2 on Sunday. If we extrapolate this data and apply it to theaters across Hong Kong, Avatar 2 will see another pre-sales increase on Sunday to perhaps 50,000.

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Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:32 pm
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