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 Nope Weekend Estimates 
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
MadGez wrote:
Elvis and Top Gun Maverick are two films that are just bloody good. Everyone I know who have seen them (and many have seen TGM) just rave about them.

A friend who didn't love TGM on first viewing, went to see it a second time because I raved about it and then ended up loving it.

I know great films do not always get the box office they deserve - but I'm glad it's happening here.

TGM should at least get to $680m which is insane. Elvis - $145m or so - fantastic. To top it off - The Black Phone, Crawdads, Nope (and likely Bullet Train) will all rake in good coin for non franchise adult films - hopefully helping to reverse the trend of "straight to streaming" for non blockbuster films.


I'm honestly shocked people love Elvis. It's a chaotic, repetitive, overlong mess. I found it OK but could never sit through it again. Tom Hanks was so cringe and why the fuck was he the protagonist in an Elvis movie? Austin Butler was great but Hanks deserves a Razzie nomination. The two people I went with found it way too long too and kept checking their phones to see how much time was left. It's a butt numbing movie.


Tue Jul 26, 2022 12:09 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Monday #'s

1 Nope $4,777,980 - $49,144,890
2 Thor $2,985,165 -44% $279,665,141
3 Minions: The Rise of Gru $2,752,935 -35% $300,939,390
4 Where the Crawdads Sing $1,700,000 -33% $40,059,223
5 Top Gun: Maverick $1,503,127 -19% $637,340,009
6 Elvis $1,084,913 -19% $119,745,406
7 Paws of Fury $536,572 -31% $14,291,824
8 The Black Phone $522,975 -36% $79,136,675
9 Jurassic World: Dominion Universal $427,625 -36% $366,091,305
10 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris -20% $4,950,770

Minions passes $300M! Even with Superpets opening, it looks like it might coast past $350M+. Will probably pass Thor by the end of the week in dailies.

Crawdads is holding up really well. Feel like it could make a serious run for $80M now.

Elvis is uber impressive and holding exceptionally well.

TGM JUST KEEPS ON GOING! Could be at $650M by Sunday. It's just $63.1M from BP to crack the top 5 of all time. Just $22M from topping Titanic for #7 of all time and biggest for Paramount. Took them 25 years to get there and I'm sure they never expected something like TGM to get there. And it's STILL doing $1.5M Monday's?!? :noway:


Tue Jul 26, 2022 4:05 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
The Black Phone may get impressively close to 4x multiplier.

Very encouraging summer for non-CGI franchise fare.


Tue Jul 26, 2022 5:56 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Magic Mike wrote:
MadGez wrote:
Elvis and Top Gun Maverick are two films that are just bloody good. Everyone I know who have seen them (and many have seen TGM) just rave about them.

A friend who didn't love TGM on first viewing, went to see it a second time because I raved about it and then ended up loving it.

I know great films do not always get the box office they deserve - but I'm glad it's happening here.

TGM should at least get to $680m which is insane. Elvis - $145m or so - fantastic. To top it off - The Black Phone, Crawdads, Nope (and likely Bullet Train) will all rake in good coin for non franchise adult films - hopefully helping to reverse the trend of "straight to streaming" for non blockbuster films.


I'm honestly shocked people love Elvis. It's a chaotic, repetitive, overlong mess. I found it OK but could never sit through it again. Tom Hanks was so cringe and why the fuck was he the protagonist in an Elvis movie? Austin Butler was great but Hanks deserves a Razzie nomination. The two people I went with found it way too long too and kept checking their phones to see how much time was left. It's a butt numbing movie.


I have issues with Tom Hanks/Parker is used in this film also - however these type of films live or die on the music and nostalgia and this one hits its mark well especially among Elvis fans. Perhaps it is because Austin Butler is so good but it has connected.

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Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:46 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
So I'm counting Tuesday here as well because it will get over $1 million then as well. 61 days over $1 million!!! Let's hope it continues for Day 62 on Wednesday.

101 Titanic
80 Avatar
61 Top Gun: Maverick
61 The Phantom Menace
54 Shrek 2
52 Black Panther
52 The Avengers
52 Incredibles 2
45 The Force Awakens
45 Avengers: Infinity War
45 Jurassic World
40 The Dark Knight
38 Avengers: Endgame
38 Spider-Man: No Way Home

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Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:45 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Algren wrote:
So I'm counting Tuesday here as well because it will get over $1 million then as well. 61 days over $1 million!!! Let's hope it continues for Day 62 on Wednesday.

101 Titanic
80 Avatar
61 Top Gun: Maverick
61 The Phantom Menace
54 Shrek 2
52 Black Panther
52 The Avengers
52 Incredibles 2
45 The Force Awakens
45 Avengers: Infinity War
45 Jurassic World
40 The Dark Knight
38 Avengers: Endgame
38 Spider-Man: No Way Home


It’s going to get to 66 days before it’s streak ends :noway:

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Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:52 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Algren wrote:
So I'm counting Tuesday here as well because it will get over $1 million then as well. 61 days over $1 million!!! Let's hope it continues for Day 62 on Wednesday.

101 Titanic
80 Avatar
61 Top Gun: Maverick
61 The Phantom Menace
54 Shrek 2
52 Black Panther
52 The Avengers
52 Incredibles 2
45 The Force Awakens
45 Avengers: Infinity War
45 Jurassic World
40 The Dark Knight
38 Avengers: Endgame
38 Spider-Man: No Way Home


E.T. also did 80 days straight.

TGM has just surpassed Finding Nemo which did 59.


Tue Jul 26, 2022 10:18 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Jiffy wrote:
Algren wrote:
So I'm counting Tuesday here as well because it will get over $1 million then as well. 61 days over $1 million!!! Let's hope it continues for Day 62 on Wednesday.

101 Titanic
80 Avatar
80 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial
61 Top Gun: Maverick
61 The Phantom Menace
59 Finding Nemo
54 Shrek 2
52 Black Panther
52 The Avengers
52 Incredibles 2
45 The Force Awakens
45 Avengers: Infinity War
45 Jurassic World
40 The Dark Knight
38 Avengers: Endgame
38 Spider-Man: No Way Home


E.T. also did 80 days straight.

TGM has just surpassed Finding Nemo which did 59.


Yeah, it's not a comprehensive list. Just a few of the ones I came across. I'll add those two in though :thumbsup:

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Tue Jul 26, 2022 10:27 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Random stats:

Throughout Titanic's first 12 weekends, it had 3 films open to $15M+ (adjusts to about $28.2M+ as of 2019 ticket prices).

Throughout Avatar's first 12 weekends, it had 9 films open to $25M+ (adjusts to about $29.3M as of 2019 ticket prices).

Throughout TGM's first 9 weekends, it had 6 films open to $30M+ as a rough approximation with 3 over $100M+. Probably will be at about 8 with Super Pets + Bullet Train for $30M openers by weekend 12. It's definitely benefited from the more spacious summer schedule from limited movies ready for release post Covid but has so many more distractions now for moviegoers.

Another observation on money TGM may have left on the table, the music soundtrack was a little lacking on this version compared to the original's pop culture impact. Titanic and the original TG greatly benefitted from iconic soundtracks. Celine's My Heart Will Go On for Titanic, TG's Danger Zone and and Take My Breath Away gave more life to the films. Gaga's Hold My Hand is at 65M+ views on Youtube but peaked at #49 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart. Danger Zone reached #2 on the Hot 100 and Take My Breath Away reached #1 and won the Oscar for song as did My Heart Will Go On. Feel if TGM also had the "song of the summer" could have kept an already epic and lengthy run have an additional bump. If they do a big re-release on this, think they should add a whole bunch of new songs as well.


Tue Jul 26, 2022 11:15 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Algren wrote:
Jiffy wrote:
Algren wrote:
So I'm counting Tuesday here as well because it will get over $1 million then as well. 61 days over $1 million!!! Let's hope it continues for Day 62 on Wednesday.

101 Titanic
80 Avatar
80 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial
61 Top Gun: Maverick
61 The Phantom Menace
59 Finding Nemo
54 Shrek 2
52 Black Panther
52 The Avengers
52 Incredibles 2
45 The Force Awakens
45 Avengers: Infinity War
45 Jurassic World
40 The Dark Knight
38 Avengers: Endgame
38 Spider-Man: No Way Home


E.T. also did 80 days straight.

TGM has just surpassed Finding Nemo which did 59.


Yeah, it's not a comprehensive list. Just a few of the ones I came across. I'll add those two in though :thumbsup:


If my math is right, I think The Sixth Sense is next up at 62 days.

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Wed Jul 27, 2022 11:40 am
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
TGM apparently will be getting a push 8/12 and then another one Labor Day weekend. Good on Paramount for trying to keep this around for as long as possible for what looks like $700M.


Wed Jul 27, 2022 12:20 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Everything having pretty good to great legs just makes Lightyear look even more embarassing. Elvis is going to fly past 4x multiplier wow. And Crawdads is going to go past 3x multiplier too.


Wed Jul 27, 2022 12:43 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
O wrote:
TGM apparently will be getting a push 8/12 and then another one Labor Day weekend. Good on Paramount for trying to keep this around for as long as possible for what looks like $700M.


I love to hear that. I'm hoping to see it pop back up on larger format screens so I can go again.


Wed Jul 27, 2022 2:18 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Crawdads Tuesday down just 28% from last week. Very impressive. Will shoot past 50 Million this weekend.


Wed Jul 27, 2022 2:20 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
publicenemy#1 wrote:
Everything having pretty good to great legs just makes Lightyear look even more embarassing. Elvis is going to fly past 4x multiplier wow. And Crawdads is going to go past 3x multiplier too.


It honestly doesn't even make sense. Did Disney really ruin the Pixar brand that badly? Because the movie was good! Maybe Superpets will bomb and we can blame them both on just parents being picky?

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shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

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chippy is correct

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Wed Jul 27, 2022 3:29 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Chippy wrote:
publicenemy#1 wrote:
Everything having pretty good to great legs just makes Lightyear look even more embarassing. Elvis is going to fly past 4x multiplier wow. And Crawdads is going to go past 3x multiplier too.


It honestly doesn't even make sense. Did Disney really ruin the Pixar brand that badly? Because the movie was good! Maybe Superpets will bomb and we can blame them both on just parents being picky?


I think it's the fact that it looked ugly + homophobia + no Tim Allen + Pixar brand isn't what it used to be

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Wed Jul 27, 2022 4:24 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Chippy wrote:
publicenemy#1 wrote:
Everything having pretty good to great legs just makes Lightyear look even more embarassing. Elvis is going to fly past 4x multiplier wow. And Crawdads is going to go past 3x multiplier too.


It honestly doesn't even make sense. Did Disney really ruin the Pixar brand that badly? Because the movie was good! Maybe Superpets will bomb and we can blame them both on just parents being picky?


I definitely think it was a perfect storm of things against Lightyear; film isn't as good as any Toy Story movie, stupid aversion to it due to a 2 second lesbian kiss, Disney's final nail in the coffin in ruining goodwill for Pixar with putting Turning Red on D+, which in turn Lightyear will do really well on D+ but it's not gonna bring in much money/new subscribers. Since so many people have D+ theatrical has really affected Disney's box office. Even MCU is affected by it if it's not a must see as waiting 2 months is not that hard.


Wed Jul 27, 2022 5:37 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Chippy wrote:
Algren wrote:
Jiffy wrote:
Algren wrote:
So I'm counting Tuesday here as well because it will get over $1 million then as well. 61 days over $1 million!!! Let's hope it continues for Day 62 on Wednesday.

101 Titanic
80 Avatar
80 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial
61 Top Gun: Maverick
61 The Phantom Menace
59 Finding Nemo
54 Shrek 2
52 Black Panther
52 The Avengers
52 Incredibles 2
45 The Force Awakens
45 Avengers: Infinity War
45 Jurassic World
40 The Dark Knight
38 Avengers: Endgame
38 Spider-Man: No Way Home


E.T. also did 80 days straight.

TGM has just surpassed Finding Nemo which did 59.


Yeah, it's not a comprehensive list. Just a few of the ones I came across. I'll add those two in though :thumbsup:


If my math is right, I think The Sixth Sense is next up at 62 days.


That one got 45 days; harder to climb a list like this with an August release.


Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:22 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Ahh, didn't realize y'all were talking consecutive, I was doing cumulative.

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shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

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Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:39 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Lightyear was too serious and no fun for kids at all. WOM was not good among families, even if its ok for adults.


Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:51 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
My youngest son is 8 and thought Lightyear was boring. His older brother liked it though. It was just unnecessary and too far off in tone to the TS films.

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Thu Jul 28, 2022 7:06 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
O wrote:
TGM apparently will be getting a push 8/12 and then another one Labor Day weekend. Good on Paramount for trying to keep this around for as long as possible for what looks like $700M.


So its just about locked to beat Infinity War but this will give it a chance to surpass Black Panther for No.5 of all time.

So by the end of the year it will could be anywhere between 5th and 8th of all time, pending how BP2/Avatar 2 perform.

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Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:54 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Wow if it makes 700!

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Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:59 pm
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Post Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
At this point it's safe to say Tom Cruise is the biggest Hollywood movie star of all-time. He's had hit movies in FIVE decades.

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Fri Jul 29, 2022 6:00 pm
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