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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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May 20-22 Predictions
Downton Abbey: A New Era- 24 Men- 6
Downton is selling well around me and has a lot of younger fans as well as older. Thinking the drop won't be super severe, though it wills till drop.
Men looks more accessible than X so I see it doing a bit better
Doctor Strange- -45% Firestarter- -70%
Chip N Dale Rescue Rangers should have opened theatrically this weekend
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Fri May 13, 2022 8:12 am |
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j_forest23
Star Trek XI
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:16 pm Posts: 386
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
I’m really excited for it but I’ve heard about the climatic scene in Men and it is just I think it’s going to polarize people HEAVILY and no doubt the Cinemascore will be atrocious. I didn’t like X much but I think it was A24’s most accessible horror movie and I don’t think Men will be nearly as much . Be careful looking on Variety’s review I didn’t see the spoiler disclaimer and while there was a warning in the review, I didn’t think it would spoil it
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Sat May 14, 2022 11:23 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
I think Men looks weird AF. X was a straight-forward slasher. Men will be less accessible IMO. Also best case for the CinemaScore would be a C- and only because of hardcore A24 fans going opening night. I'm going 3 Million on it. Maybe it can reach 4 Million. But I don't think it opens any higher.
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Sat May 14, 2022 11:36 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
X was about porn. That automatically makes it inaccessible, regardless of if its a slasher.
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Sat May 14, 2022 4:45 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23792 Location: Classified
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Secrets of Dumbledore should have opened this weekend. It's weird having such a previously important summer weekend be left for Downton Abbey 2.
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Sat May 14, 2022 4:49 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Downton Abbey: A New Era - $18 million Men - $2.9 million
Had been cautiously optimistic about DA2 but the declines in the foreign markets, particularly the UK, are troubling, coupled with the fact that its main demo of 50+ remains hesitant to go to the theater (my parents are massive Downton fans and I don't even know if they'll be going to make the trip to see it).
Do we have a theater count for Men? I think it already looks too ""weird"" for mainstream auds to make much money opening weekend, before crashing right afterwards. Wonder if this can finally net A24 their first F Cinemascore?
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Sun May 15, 2022 12:40 pm |
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j_forest23
Star Trek XI
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:16 pm Posts: 386
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Jonathan wrote: Wonder if this can finally net A24 their first F Cinemascore? After reading about the aforementioned climatic body horror scene I wouldn’t be surprised at all, I was kinda shocked when I read it tbh and I’m used to offbeat, arthouse like movies. I feel like it’ll have mother! like reception
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Sun May 15, 2022 12:58 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
zwackerm wrote: X was about porn. That automatically makes it inaccessible, regardless of if its a slasher. Let's not pretend the target audience doesn't watch porn though. It does make it a bit more niche, but at least it didn't look super weird.
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Sun May 15, 2022 1:20 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Jonathan wrote: Do we have a theater count for Men? I think it already looks too ""weird"" for mainstream auds to make much money opening weekend, before crashing right afterwards. Wonder if this can finally net A24 their first F Cinemascore? If Men were a bigger studio film and not A24 I feel like it would easily get an F. But a decent amount of people know what they're getting into with A24 movies. That will help offset any average moviegoer that just stumbles into it because they are horror fans. I won't say it can't get an F but it will more likely be in the D range.
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Sun May 15, 2022 1:21 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23792 Location: Classified
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Men has a terrible title. The audience laughed at it when I saw the trailer. Ex Machina and Annihilation were such cool titles that made people feel like they'd be cool by watching.
Also, I didn't realize that Garland wrote the two 28 Days movies and Sunshine and The Beach. Very impressive.
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Mon May 16, 2022 2:26 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38018
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
I didn't realize the first time I saw the Men trailer that the same actor played all the roles, if they had a higher profile actor or someone with a clear identifiable look it might have worked better, maybe Oscar Isaac is too busy to reunite with Garland but Domhnall Gleeson or Nick Offerman would have been interesting. Then again I guess the point is she's not supposed to recognize them as easily?
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Mon May 16, 2022 2:43 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6167
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Downtown Abbey release looks very small. There are shows on wednesday as well. But this does not look like opening big. Probably around mid teens OW.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Mon May 16, 2022 4:24 pm |
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j_forest23
Star Trek XI
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:16 pm Posts: 386
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
The audience laughing at the title for Men is beyond ridiculous, its happened twice for me now, like really . Can’t wait to finally go see it Thursday night.
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Mon May 16, 2022 5:09 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
I'm always nervous when the Men trailer shows in front of something (which happens a lot). I am just waiting for people to laugh when the title is shown. It really hasn't been THAT bad but there are usually a couple laughs.
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Tue May 17, 2022 12:36 am |
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j_forest23
Star Trek XI
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:16 pm Posts: 386
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
It’s happened twice for me and it is kinda understandable with a title kinda bland and odd for such an ominous trailer. It hasn’t been all that bad for me either but some groups in my audience for X were obnoxious (not just with the trailer but the movie itself) and of course had a ball with that title lol, so annoying.
Does anyone know the theater count? I wonder if it will be polled for CS.
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Tue May 17, 2022 9:33 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11518
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
A big shame Disney didn't just release the Chip and Dale movie, it's getting some raves. Quote: It’s the funniest movie of the year so far, either animated or live-action.
Quote: Everything the recent Space Jam sequel desperately attempted but failed to be.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movie ... 235147554/Other reviews: Quote: Chip 'n Dale: Rescue Rangers is as close as it gets to a spiritual sequel of Who Framed Roger Rabbit. Quote: Disney shows real self-deprecating humor and a willingness to play with other studios. Somehow, a new Chip ’N Dale movie is their most forward-thinking project.
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Tue May 17, 2022 12:42 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18880 Location: San Diego
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Yeah considering how barren the market is that could've probably done very well.
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Tue May 17, 2022 3:37 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Downton Abbey previews should be inflated due to Wednesday previews as well
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Thu May 19, 2022 10:20 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
j_forest23 wrote: It’s happened twice for me and it is kinda understandable with a title kinda bland and odd for such an ominous trailer. It hasn’t been all that bad for me either but some groups in my audience for X were obnoxious (not just with the trailer but the movie itself) and of course had a ball with that title lol, so annoying.
Does anyone know the theater count? I wonder if it will be polled for CS. 2,212 theaters for Men. I've gotta hand it to A24 for putting these movies out in wide release with proper marketing.
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Thu May 19, 2022 7:20 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
All the theaters around me have dropped The Lost City and kept Secrets of Dumbledore which has a lower PTA. Hopefully it can still cross 100m.
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Fri May 20, 2022 10:55 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Downton Abbey A New Era- 1.05m
Yikes! That's even worse than Death on the Nile! Could it do sub 10m with that?
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Fri May 20, 2022 11:26 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
zwackerm wrote: Downton Abbey A New Era- 1.05m
Yikes! That's even worse than Death on the Nile! Could it do sub 10m with that? That's pretty bad - I thought there was more hype for this among its fanbase?
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Fri May 20, 2022 12:07 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Men 423k
Should be good for a 5m debut with that.
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Fri May 20, 2022 1:58 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
X did $440,000 and opened with 4.275 Million. So Men should probably do 4 Million or so.
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Fri May 20, 2022 2:05 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: May 20-22 Predictions
Apparently the 1.05m figure is only Thursday and does not include Wednesday. Bodes slightly better and suggests 15m weekend.
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Fri May 20, 2022 4:12 pm |
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