The Bad Guys- 32m
The Northman- 28m
The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent- 16m

Fantastic Beasts -60%
Sonic -40%

I could've seen Bad Guys doing even better if it weren't for Sonic splitting the audience. Should've moved to May to replace Super Pets

NICK CAGE IS GOING TO OWN THIS WEEKEND

I think the openers will do about half of these predictions (maybe more for Bad Guys, even less for Nic Cage movie).

Fixed

Not really feeling Bad Guys. Gonna guess $25m.

The other two could go either way. Hoping they do well. I would guess $15m for Northman and $11m for Unbearable.

I wanna see Massive Talent do well but the ads really don't even say what the movie is about. It just looks like Cage and Pascal goofing around. Northman is a much easier sell and will benefit from the goodwill towards Dune and other recent "elevated action movies."

Northman has the strongest social media impressions of the month and trailer views on par with pretty big movies. Feeling a bi breakout for it. The previews around here are as full as the Fantastic Beasts ones, although obviously there's less showings

The Bad Guys - $19 million
The Northman - $17 million
Unbearable Weight - $6.5 million

Fantastic Beasts 3 -66%
Sonic 2 -42%
Everything Everywhere -25%
Father Stu -45%

Northman is one of those cases where I kinda wish we had the kind of tracking we did pre-pandemic, because it feels like hype is high but it's hard to determine if that's just chatter or legit. Looking at Google Trends, it's at the same level ten days before its opening day that Morbius was at ten days before it opened. But will people come out? I am hoping so, mostly because an original R-rated movie breaking out would wonders for justifying theatrical releases for these kind of movies (especially with Ambulance flopping).

Unbearable Weight probably made a big mistake opening the same day. Targeting very similar demos, and as a result hype feels weirdly tepid despite good early reviews.

Unbearable Weight looks like a flop to me, I feel like it needed a more identifiably meta plotline like Jay and Silent Bob Strike bac and more references to Cage movies people know.

Cage will probably flop. Should have built up buzz in limited.

Northman also see major breakout. Could see a softer Friday and build up over the weekend from WOM.

Bad Guys will probably do well just as there's been less product out there for the demo.

The Northman easy.

Northman - 25 Million
Bad Guys - 14 Million
Unbearable Weight - 7 Million

That is if audiences even like it. I expect maybe a B-/B CinemaScore. Certainly nothing higher. Seems like it will be a bit divisive. But great reviews overall will help.

Bad Guys - 21 Million
The Northman - 19 Million
Unbearable Weight - 9 Million

Northman has a lot going for it - at least for OW. Bad Guys is a popular book series here in Oz (Aussie writer) and it's doing solid numbers (though well short of Sonic). I suspect it should be good for high teens/low 20s.

Update : made some amendments

This weekend should be interesting. I'm gonna say..

1. Bad Guys - 24m
2. Sonic 2 - 17.4m (42% drop)
3. The Northman - 17m
4. Fantastic Beasts - 15.9m (63% drop)

Definitely feeling like Unbearable is going sub-8m opening. And hopefully Everything Everywhere drop is solid.

UWMT always gets laughs when the trailer comes on in the theater. Can't believe it will do so poorly

I had been growing more and more optimistic about The Northman breaking out, but the international numbers from this weekend got me worrying a bit - $1.2 million opening in the UK is particularly underwhelming. The presales are still really solid here, but I might start capping my weekend predictions at $15 million to be safe.

I have no idea how they gave The Northman a 90m budget. Even if it does well to the tune of 70-80m domestic, it would still need 250mish WW to break even

Still feeling good about all 3 openers. I think the low projections is due to original IP doing poorly lately. But I think that's because most original IP hasn't looked as appealing as this weekend's openers.

Still feel over 30m for bad guys, 25m for Northman and over 10m for Massive talent

I don't know what they were thinking releasing Massive Talent this weekend. Even if they're different genres both The Northman and that appeal to adult audiences who pay attention to reviews. Massive Talent will be way over-shadowed by The Northman. If it only opens to like 4-5 Million it won't be that surprising.

Everything Everywhere All at Once was up week over week even though last week was spring break. Could it stay flat or increase this weekend?

It added a ton of theaters though which helped. I think it will drop with Northman and Massive Talent opening and no big addition of theaters. But it will probably be a mild drop.