Japan Box-Office: On Hiatus
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
Yeah. The checker board seating pattern (50% capacity) was very common from June 2020 through about the end of 2020. And Aeon Cinemas kept it for most of 2021 as well, so not surprising they're the first going back to it.
Most theaters in the urban prefectures will probably do the same soon.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:25 pm |
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Cynosure
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 7:30 am Posts: 760
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
Doraemon and Conan are cursed. This will likely be the 3rd year in a row where they will face restrictions.
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Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:52 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
Doraemon may run into problems, but hopefully 3 months is plenty of time to avoid any issues with Conan.
Past waves tended to last around 6-8 weeks. But unlike every other wave, 80%+ of the country is fully vaccinated now (less than 1% was back when the wave last Summer began), and the government has made preparations (like measures to improve any future hospital strains) for any future waves while the numbers died down back in the fall. So much better position just in case.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:05 pm |
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Kanroji Mitsuri
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:14 am Posts: 759 Location: Japan
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
After winning successive weekends Overseas (including it's home market) Still, NWH fails to win 2nd Weekend from Confidence JP, dropping straight to thirth. Corpse, Is there any exception in which MCU has win successive weekend in Japan?
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Fri Jan 14, 2022 6:12 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
MCU movies are the most frontloaded movies getting opening weekend #1 is good enough. Given the strength in opening of NWH though I assume it might have a very small chance but most likely it will drop 40-45% range so it would be difficult to retain #1.
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Fri Jan 14, 2022 6:49 am |
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Kanroji Mitsuri
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:14 am Posts: 759 Location: Japan
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
$30M-$35M should be a great final (Tokyo daily cases has exceeded 4000) I think we will face issues like last year EVA &DC runs. But, I pray that this year CoVid-19 should not affected Detective Conan. I really want The Bride of Halloween Night to exceed JPY 10B in Japan.
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Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:10 am |
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LPLC
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2019 2:27 pm Posts: 532
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
Kanroji Mitsuri wrote: $30M-$35M should be a great final (Tokyo daily cases has exceeded 4000) I think we will face issues like last year EVA &DC runs. But, I pray that this year CoVid-19 should not affected Detective Conan. I really want The Bride of Halloween Night to exceed JPY 10B in Japan. No $30M would be bad, all over the world, the numbers are impressive, here spiderman is the most famous and appreciated superhero, so $40M would hardly be good. Under AIW would be considered as bad. If F9 does better than Spiderman, there really is a problem somewhere.
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Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:58 am |
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Kanroji Mitsuri
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:14 am Posts: 759 Location: Japan
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
LPLC wrote: Kanroji Mitsuri wrote: $30M-$35M should be a great final (Tokyo daily cases has exceeded 4000) I think we will face issues like last year EVA &DC runs. But, I pray that this year CoVid-19 should not affected Detective Conan. I really want The Bride of Halloween Night to exceed JPY 10B in Japan. No $30M would be bad, all over the world, the numbers are impressive, here spiderman is the most famous and appreciated superhero, so $40M would hardly be good. Under AIW would be considered as bad. If F9 does better than Spiderman, there really is a problem somewhere. Should not be compare with F9 because It was not only the 2021 highest grossing importing film but also the biggest OW of the year which had far less competition with more holidays (MHA gave a good hold against it). Here, Spidey is competing with second biggest OW of history, along with CoVid-19 (Omicron Variant) + weak/non-holiday period. If Jujutsu Kaisen goes for 4D expansion then Spidey is dead (Today, It's at 3rd lol. Premium formats are just keeping it's gross above Jujutsu Kaisen). $30M-$35M is locked figure now. Unless cases decrease I doubt Spidey can hold ¥5B. Also should not be compare with Tobey's Spidey which had a lot of previews to boost it's 3-days WK numbers.
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Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:17 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
Spider-Man is going to drop a lot, of course. A ~45% drop over the 2nd weekend is pretty normal for a MCU film, and since Spider-Man had a holiday Monday, it's subject for a higher drop than that. I've been pretty busy this week and haven't tracked it, but just glancing at the numbers at the usual locations, I'm guessing it's around ¥2.2/2.3 billion, perhaps, going into the weekend. So something around ¥2.6/2.7 billion after Sunday? ¥5 billion won't be easy, and is likely an uphill challenge (it was after its opening, not because it was "bad", but just because of the nature of MCU films).
~¥4.5 billion (~$40 million) is still doable though and is very good (it's almost 50% more than Far From Home.) Now, if it would wind among the most frontloaded of the MCU films and struggle to ¥4 billion, it'd be more of a matter of concern.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:01 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
Short update since I didn't get around to much this week:
Jujutsu Kaisen 0 exceeded ¥8 billion (~$71-72 million) on 5.89 million admissions on Thursday. Meant to share this yesterday, but got busy. And after Friday, it's very likely above ¥8.1 billion on ~5.97 million admissions. It should hold well this weekend, no reason to really expect rough drop based on its solid Friday hold, so something around ¥400 million this weekend and a total above ¥8.5 billion (~$75 million) and ~6.2/6.3 million admissions after four weeks.
Spider-Man, as mentioned above, is showing normal signs of frontloading associated with the MCU, its admissions having fallen to roughly JJK0's level. It'll probably slip 45/50% in its second weekend for around ~¥450-500 million, bringing its two week total perhaps around ¥2.7 billion (~$24 million) and ~1.8 million admissions.
So JJK0 and Spider-Man will likely be close this weekend, both trying to fend of the new Confidence Man JP movie. Confidence Man JP won Friday, but not convincing enough to guarantee it also wins the weekend. It's also aiming for around ¥400 million or so I suspect in its debut weekend, which could make this weekend a very close and exciting three-way race! (Slight edge to Spider-Man since it has the highest avg. ticket price.)
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:08 pm |
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Kanroji Mitsuri
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:14 am Posts: 759 Location: Japan
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Re: Japan Box-Office: No Way Home - Sunday Admissions Tracki
Kanroji Mitsuri wrote: International Release Schedule: Hong Kong &Korea : February 2022 Taiwan : 2022 China : 2022 The film have official release date listed by AMC Theatres in USA : 18 March 2022 &In Mongolia, it will arrive two days earlier in 16 March 2022.
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Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:53 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
Saturday is a three-way race as expected: The Confidence Man JP: Episode of the Hero looks to have slightly come out on top for the day, but an opener barely winning Saturday doesn't lock up a weekend victory. Estimating around ¥230-250 million on 170,000-175,000 admissions for Sat. Jujutsu Kaisen 0 held very, very well, down less than 20% versus last Saturday. (This is especially impressive since it increased last weekend.) If it was going to drop-off hard post-holidays, today should have been a sign of that, so this is great news for its future run. Estimating about ¥225-230 million on 165,000-170,000 admissions for Sat. Spider-Man: No Way Home fell close to 55% versus last Saturday. A tad higher than predicted, but Sunday *might* get that closer to 50% for the weekend. Estimating about ¥205-210 million on 135,000-140,000 admissions for Sat.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:59 am |
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Kanroji Mitsuri
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:14 am Posts: 759 Location: Japan
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
Corpse, have you watched Belle? It was $727K yesterday, aiming for $2M WK in US.
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Sat Jan 15, 2022 11:37 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
Not yet! Glad it's doing well in the U.S. The marketing campaign appeared pretty strong, so glad to see it likely delivering the intended results.
How high is it looking to debut? #5?
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Sat Jan 15, 2022 11:53 am |
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Kanroji Mitsuri
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:14 am Posts: 759 Location: Japan
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
Corpse wrote: Not yet! Glad it's doing well in the U.S. The marketing campaign appeared pretty strong, so glad to see it likely delivering the intended results.
How high is it looking to debut? #5? Box Office Pro has not placed any estimate but it's look par with The 355 ($2M) or higher than Kings'men ($1.9M) at #5 but #4 if it defeats The 355
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Sat Jan 15, 2022 12:00 pm |
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KazusaTouma1102
Hatchling
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2021 4:21 am Posts: 17
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
What do you guys think Shin Ultraman which is supposed to be released in may is going to make? With the Anno name attached does it have potential to get around 5 Billion or would Anno not being the main director effect it?
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Sat Jan 15, 2022 12:07 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
These "Shin" reboots/remakes of older franchises have proven popular, so just based on that, it could be a film to watch this year. If Anno's not the director or co-director, it may lower its box-office potential though.
On paper, ¥5 billion seems too high a goal to me. Ultraman is well-known, of course, but its past box-office history is unimpressive. Being well-known doesn't necessarily mean widespread appeal, either. (Think Anpanman or Kamen Rider. Very, very well known, but low box-office performers.)
The point of the "Shin" approach is to revive (or more like "reintroduce") such a thing though, so we'll see. I don't know what the biggest Ultraman film is off-hand, but I don't recall any doing particularly well (please share any data you, or anyone else here, has!), and ¥5 billion seems too high a leap to me at this time.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:01 pm |
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KazusaTouma1102
Hatchling
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2021 4:21 am Posts: 17
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
Corpse wrote: These "Shin" reboots/remakes of older franchises have proven popular, so just based on that, it could be a film to watch this year. If Anno's not the director or co-director, it may lower its box-office potential though.
On paper, ¥5 billion seems too high a goal to me. Ultraman is well-known, of course, but its past box-office history is unimpressive. Being well-known doesn't necessarily mean widespread appeal, either. (Think Anpanman or Kamen Rider. Very, very well known, but low box-office performers.)
The point of the "Shin" approach is to revive (or more like "reintroduce") such a thing though, so we'll see. I don't know what the biggest Ultraman film is off-hand, but I don't recall any doing particularly well (please share any data you, or anyone else here, has!), and ¥5 billion seems too high a leap to me at this time. Anno is the writer but had to give up the main directing to shinji higuchi due to being busy with Eva Rebuild I think. I don't think Ultraman films have been particularly popular but the recent anime on Netflix Japan was a hit apparently. https://www.crunchyroll.com/anime-news/ ... on-netflix
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Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:19 pm |
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JustLurking
Wall-E
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:44 pm Posts: 876
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
Good hold for JJK. Tomorrow will probably drop a little more since it doesn't have monday holiday to help its evenings but still totally fine. Though at the moment of this writing I'm seeing news of a tsunami hitting jp, not sure how much damage it did but it could slow down business a bit.
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Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:27 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
I don't think any major impact/damage is *expected* to be seen from the tsunami (though waves up to 3 meters are anticipated), it's already begun to hit the coast though and evacuations have been issued, so it's obviously a concern and worth watching as we go into Sunday. The West Coast of the United States is under a tsunami advisory/warning as well. Check out the shockwave/eruption from the Tonga volcano from earlier! It's a major-scale eruption.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:55 pm |
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Kanroji Mitsuri
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:14 am Posts: 759 Location: Japan
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
I could not find any data on Ultraman series. Just adding what I have find. → Ultraman Saga : ¥579M → Ultraman Zero: The Revenge of Belial : ¥407M → Superior Ultraman 8 Brothers : ¥838M → Ultraman Mebius & Ultraman Brothers : ¥605.5M → Ultraman Tiga: The Final Odyssey : ¥600M → Ultraman Gaia: The Battle in Hyperspace : ¥340M → Ultraman Zoffy: Ultra Warriors vs. the Giant Monster Army : ¥155M
Here, someone is expecting ¥5B but I could not find any film crossing ¥1B. As Corpse mentioned, it's more like Kamen Rider or Power Rangers
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Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:08 am |
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Kanroji Mitsuri
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:14 am Posts: 759 Location: Japan
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
Limited Data Ultraman Ginga S (re-release) : ¥54M (only 3-days)
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Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:16 am |
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KazusaTouma1102
Hatchling
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2021 4:21 am Posts: 17
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
Kanroji Mitsuri wrote: I could not find any data on Ultraman series. Just adding what I have find. → Ultraman Saga : ¥579M → Ultraman Zero: The Revenge of Belial : ¥407M → Superior Ultraman 8 Brothers : ¥838M → Ultraman Mebius & Ultraman Brothers : ¥605.5M → Ultraman Tiga: The Final Odyssey : ¥600M → Ultraman Gaia: The Battle in Hyperspace : ¥340M → Ultraman Zoffy: Ultra Warriors vs. the Giant Monster Army : ¥155M
Here, someone is expecting ¥5B but I could not find any film crossing ¥1B. As Corpse mentioned, it's more like Kamen Rider or Power Rangers I know I was just expecting the new film to get some more traction purely based on Anno's name and the Shin reboot series.
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Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:53 am |
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Kanroji Mitsuri
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2021 2:14 am Posts: 759 Location: Japan
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
KazusaTouma1102 wrote: I know I was just expecting the new film to get some more traction purely based on Anno's name and the Shin reboot series. Sorry Touma, Do not take my comment seriously. I couldn't find any figures in internet. All of the above figure are just bookish reference. If you have any data please share with us. (I was actually expecting data above ¥1B because it get covered by Eiren)
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Sun Jan 16, 2022 11:01 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (01/08-09); Charts Update
My Weekend Estimates (Top 3): ¥490-520 million ($4.3-4.6 million) / 360,000-380,000 - The Confidence Man JP: Episode of Hero (Toho) NEW ¥475-500 million ($4.2-4.4 million) / 330,000-345,000 - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (Toho) WK4 ¥410-425 million ($3.6-3.7 million) / 265,000-275,000 - Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony) WK2
My Estimated Totals: ¥8.6-8.7 billion ($78-79 million) / 6.3-6.4 million - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (Toho) WK4 ¥2.5-2.6 billion ($22-23 million) / 1.6-1.7 million - Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony) WK2 ¥615-650 million ($5.4-5.7 million) / 455,000-480,000 - The Confidence Man JP: Episode of Hero (Toho) NEW
Very good debut for The Confidence Man, up around 20-25% or so from the first film in 2020. The original went on to gross a very good ¥3.84 billion ($35.6 million), so let's see how close the sequel gets. The first film had very good legs (due to restrictions and delays), so a bigger opening for the sequel doesn't mean a higher gross. Still, I think ¥3 billion is pretty likely, so ¥3.5 billion ($30/31 million) is probably a reasonable goal for now.
Jujutsu Kaisen 0 is holding great post-holidays (down ~25% this weekend) and is 100% locked to exceed ¥10 billion ($90 million) now. It was basically so last week, but it's definite now. So with its recent holds, I imagine it'll approach or reach ¥11/12 billion ($100/110 million) and 8 million+ admissions without too much trouble.
Spider-Man: No Way Home fell over 50%. Not going to try and spin the hold, because it's pretty bad. ~45% is about average for MCU films, give or take a percent or two, but not many actually drop over 50%. Unless it somehow rebounds, it'll probably finish a little above ¥4 billion ($36/37 million). This will be a good ~35% increase over Far From Home, very good, but missing ¥5 billion will be pretty discouraging. Not many Hollywood films will have as many advantages as this one had, so failing to achieve blockbuster status isn't a good way for them to kick off 2022.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Sun Jan 16, 2022 5:49 pm |
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