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 Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019) 

Domestic gross
Poll ended at Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:55 am
Less than $450m 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
$450m-500m 6%  6%  [ 2 ]
$500m-550m 6%  6%  [ 2 ]
$550m-600m 16%  16%  [ 5 ]
$600m-650m 28%  28%  [ 9 ]
$650m-700m 13%  13%  [ 4 ]
$700m-750m 16%  16%  [ 5 ]
$750m-800m 9%  9%  [ 3 ]
$800m-850m 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
$850m-900m 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
$900m-950m 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
$950m-1b 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
more than $1b 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 32

 Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019) 
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Barrabás wrote:
nghtvsn wrote:
Only in some alternate reality would anyone even think Kylo was NOT defeated and were it not for a convenient crack in the planet she might have ended him right then and there but of course JJ couldn't let that happen.

"did rey beat kylo" in google gives you these search results. Pretty clear.

how did rey beat kylo ren
how did rey beat kylo
how did rey beat kylo reddit
why did rey beat kylo ren so easily
how does rey beat kylo ren

I mean sure, she was a bit too powerful in that movie, but is this really that much worse than Sauron Immortal Lord of Darkness getting defeated by someone swatting his hand with a broken sword? Or literally ever Harry Potter book? It's fantasy/sci-fi/whatever.


Pointing out that a Mary Sue is in fact a Mary Sue doesn't mean it is terrible. I like Rey, I enjoy rooting for her, but she is crazy overpowered.

Isildur getting lucky and Harry Potter having plot no jutsu are definitely writing tropes as well, but not in the Gary Stu context. Isildur is insta corrupted by the ring which washes that away. Harry Potter is a super flawed character who is only good at certain things, but terrible at others.

Can you tell me Rey's weakness?...she doesn't really have any.

A good example of a Gary Stu is any Superman movie (at least he has Kryptonite).

There is nothing inherently wrong about a character being written as always being good at stuff, it is just a lazy writing trope is all.

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Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:36 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Modified my vote to $650-$700m. Hoping it keeps the streak going of the third film outgrossing the second.

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Fri Sep 20, 2019 11:31 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
I hope tickets for Frozen 2 go on sale soon, before Star Wars. Trying to plan Thanksgiving break haha.

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Fri Oct 11, 2019 8:41 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Magnus wrote:
rumors say the final trailer will debut on MNF in 10 days (October 21) and tickets go on sale right after. That seems about right given how they did it with the others.

Hype still feels very low but things can change very quickly after this trailer.


JOHN BOYEGA AGENT IS NOW SAYING THE TRAILER COMING OUT THIS MONDAY (14TH) NIGHT...on his Instagram

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Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:35 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Yeah that's what I heard too. This upcoming Monday. Can't wait

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Fri Oct 11, 2019 1:54 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Magnus wrote:

Hype still feels very low but things can change very quickly after this trailer.


If the organized old school fan boycott of Disney Star Wars continues, the box office results could be unpredictable, and in a bad way.

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Sat Oct 12, 2019 1:46 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Downgraded to $630m. I just need it to outgross TLJ. Not feeling the buzz for this one. That makes me sad.

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Sun Oct 13, 2019 12:55 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
No news today about the trailer from SW official page so guessing it'll be the 21st when the trailer drops

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Sun Oct 13, 2019 9:11 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
lilmac wrote:
Downgraded to $630m. I just need it to outgross TLJ. Not feeling the buzz for this one. That makes me sad.


How can you (correctly, IMO) say that buzz is low but then say it will outgross the last movie??

I'm expecting a massive drop to low 400s or even below that.

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Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:38 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Its end October and the buzz does not seem to pick up. I still think it will do BIG numbers but I wouldn't be surprised by a lower opening (lower by SW standards). I think a RO type run might be in order.


Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:42 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Yeah the box office has bounced back in a big way. This is going to explode.

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Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:42 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
SW Fans: Everything sucks no way I see this, blah blah blah

*Trailer of random shots set to Williams music w/ zero plot shown*

SW Fans: Just about 2 dozen tickets for opening day!

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Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:04 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Magnus wrote:
I mean are people actually going to boycott this? I know plenty of people who weren’t fans of TLJ and all of them will go see this. It may not increase but those expecting a big drop I feel are misjudging how the fanbase reacts. This isn’t Solo.

Unless the WOM is truly toxic, it will break 600m.


If you dig deeper, you know that's not that case. Search your feelings, you know it to be true. For a December holiday film, The Last Jedi's legs were fairly bad. There's more; if you look up home video sales, they were pretty bad as well, in proportion to the worldwide box office. The fan backlash started somewhat with The Last Jedi and carried on into Solo. Anecdotally, The Last Jedi has also been on Netflix in a number of countries, and on Netflix I never really saw it on the trending or popular lists. Furthermore, Star Wars toy sales since the Last Jedi have been tanking and have been disappointing. Anecdotally, I still see tons of The Last Jedi and Solo toys collecting dust on shelves at various stores. Oh, and the Galaxy's Edge Star Wars additions at Disneyworlds have apparently been a disappointment as well in terms of attendance. No smoking gun you could argue, but a lot of circumstantial evidence that fans just aren't that enthusiastic about Star Wars anymore.

What Episode 9 does have going for it is that it's the end of the current Disney trilogy. Some fans may show up just to see how it ends. It could certainly still pull off a big opening, but it's quite possible legs could be bad if fans don't repeat watch it.

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Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:33 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
I still cant see it doing less than $600m or TLJ. Expecting a gross a bit higher than TLJ at this point.

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Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:24 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Magnus wrote:
and yet there's no evidence that all those people still won't show up to ROS. Just like there was no evidence that all the people who showed up to AOTC would just refuse to see ROTS.

And if you think TLJ has worst WOM than the COMBINED reception of TPM/AOTC, you're a child who didnt live from 1999-2002 so stfu.


ROTS had great marketing and Darth Vader finally was in it. A straight sequel to AOTC without that might do 250m

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Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:27 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Magnus wrote:
and yet there's no evidence that all those people still won't show up to ROS. Just like there was no evidence that all the people who showed up to AOTC would just refuse to see ROTS.

And if you think TLJ has worst WOM than the COMBINED reception of TPM/AOTC, you're a child who didnt live from 1999-2002 so stfu.


ROTS increased considerably over AOTC though. Are you proposing that is what will happen with ROS over TLJ?

Child? Lol I lived through TPM and AOTC. TPM actually had strong legs, and a lot of the backlash was related to how lackluster AOTC was, not TPM itself. Yet that backlash did not last long and did not affect ROTS (like TLJ backlash affected Solo). Furthermore, there was no noticeable affect on toy sales or other merchandise.

This current backlash is noticeably different than the AOTC era, it's not apples to apples sorry.

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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
I have said this before but Disney+'s new series Mandalorian could be a big factor here. Specially with families if they feel like SW is just another thing that they can catch at home there might not be a need to rush into theaters over OW. Based on this Ep9 "may" have a lower opening and then based on WoM very good legs. I am really not worried about the legs on this one its the opening that sort of concerns me, even after 1.5 years of gap this just feels like something that will end but not exactly end.


Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:23 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
I don't think you're using enough all caps lol. I'm out of this debate.

We'll see what happens with ROS soon enough.

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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Jack Sparrow wrote:
I have said this before but Disney+'s new series Mandalorian could be a big factor here. Specially with families if they feel like SW is just another thing that they can catch at home there might not be a need to rush into theaters over OW. Based on this Ep9 "may" have a lower opening and then based on WoM very good legs. I am really not worried about the legs on this one its the opening that sort of concerns me, even after 1.5 years of gap this just feels like something that will end but not exactly end.


That's actually an interesting point I didn't consider. If The Mandalorian turns out to be good, that could pull away some of the audience from theatres for ROS.

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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
"Instead of supporting that star wars thing, I'm going to support this star wars thing"

brilliant.

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Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:53 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Thatguy wrote:
No smoking gun you could argue, but a lot of circumstantial evidence that fans just aren't that enthusiastic about Star Wars anymore.


Idk, Solo bombing like it did is pretty conclusive evidence that the franchise is damaged.

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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
I don't know, the troubled production, lackluster marketing, and overall meh quality may have had something to do with that. Had it had more international appeal, it wouldn't have been that bad. I think Solo flopping only helped ROS, I think most people forget it exists. Hell I'd even argue most people forgot Rogue One exists at this point.

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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Thegun wrote:
I don't know, the troubled production, lackluster marketing, and overall meh quality may have had something to do with that. Had it had more international appeal, it wouldn't have been that bad. I think Solo flopping only helped ROS, I think most people forget it exists. Hell I'd even argue most people forgot Rogue One exists at this point.


I don't think so.


Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:53 pm
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Had Solo waited until December it would have crossed $350m

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Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:12 am
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Post Re: Star Wars - Episode IX predictions (12/20/2019)
Of Course, The stench of failure was all around it. But it's international numbers would have still been bad. It's kind of rough when A. You're recasting the best character of the biggest franchise of all time, and B. You're end up being a simple caper film marketed worse than Ocean's 8.

Had they got Ford just to film Intro and Outro scenes or even something like Days of Future Past, the film would have had a lot more buzz to it. They really did a terrible job with Chewie and Han meeting, and they were hoping for so much with the tease with Darth Maul. Disney really went all in with too many avenues, and nothing paid off.

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