David, I'm anticipating your review, C+, overrated with lots of flaws and non-sense dialogues...

Of course he will. But he won't admit it.

This is what I'm thinking right now

37.5M Midnight
65.0M Friday
59.6M Saturday (-8.2%)
53.3M Sunday (-10.6%)

215.4M OW

That would put it on pace for just under 660M with a 3.5 multiplier from a 177.9M Fri-Sun OW

The issue I have is with the Saturday hold. If Avengers can jump >10% on a Saturday in May after a record breaking Friday, this may be able to stay close to flat on a July Saturday. However, if that's the case, I'd expect Friday to be a tad bit lower. Something like 37.5/64.0/61.5/53.5

Yeah, the Saturday hold will be interesting to see. All depends on WOM in the new Twitter age we live in. Avengers' WOM kicked in immediately on Friday night thanks to Twitter. TDK's WOM took an extra day or day and a half to kick in. Twitter was a complete joke in 2008 compared to now.

TDK dropped just 2% without midnights. This one will do at least that good being a finale. Book it for shoo.

TDKR will increase on saturday (minus mid) for sure

Following TDK's trajectory after a 35M Midnight and 60M Friday

35.0M Midnight
60.0M Friday
58.3M Saturday (-2.9%)
53.3M Sunday (-8.5%)

206.6M OW
171.6M Fri-Sun

Give that TDK's 3.67 multiplier and we're at 629.8M. Add in 35M Midnights and we're at a 664.8M total.

FWIW, I don't really see any scenario in which it matches that 3.67 number, considering midnights comprise of a much larger share of the OW (which tends to lead to more early repeat audience), even if this gets godly WOM

Dark Knight did 48.6m without midnights. Taking account into inflation(~12%) + plus add another another few million for additional imax it will be close to 60M. I would say its lock to have much bigger screen count compared to TDK as there is only one movie IA4 opening this weekend and TDK has nothing opening with it. Multiplexes can pull screens from all other releases > 2 weeks old. DH2 opened in 11.2K and Avengers in 11.8K(it increased to 12K+ in its 2nd weekend). I am willing to bet this one will break that record comfortably which will translate to 25-30% more screens than TDK. TDK played sold out in most major markets in its OD. What would TDKR do with additional capacity. I can see an OD(minus midnights) below 65M at this point and its most probably making 70M.

70M is beyond absurd. That's would put it roughly on pace for 240M and in the vicinity of 30M tickets for the OW. That's 36% higher than the ~22M record held by SM3/TDK/TA. A record of that margin just isn't feasible, even if it's logistically possible.

I think its sunday/monday drop wont be as good as TDK but its OD/Sat will be insane. Also average ticket price for TDK will be higher as it wont sell that many kiddie tickets. it will be teen/adult driven and there wont be that many discount tickets over the weekend.

Perhaps, but I still seeing it pulling a sub 50% drop on Monday. Low 30s

Opening day - 86m
Saturday - 53m
Sunday - 48m

Opening weekend - 187m

The only "low" predictions I'd take argument with are the ones that have its OW lower than TDK adjusted. I just can't see why that would happen, even without The Joker/Ledger.

BJ, Magnus, you do realize that the Dark Knight Rises is not in 3D?

You do realize that a film can sell more than 23m tickets opening wknd, don't you?

We've been stuck at the 20-22M tickets on OW level for 10 years now. The time's right for that figure to be blown by. ~25M tickets for an OW in the 210s seems pretty reasonable as far as I'm concerned, and this seems like the ideal film to do it.

Deride, deride...

In 10 days time we'll see who was closest.

I take issue with anyone denying the inevitability of the big 200m+ that TDKR will smash with ease opening wknd.

In 8.5 days you'll be proven wrong.

187m is a joke, TKDR will smash with ease.

Y'all got me on the warpath
and when I finish, its gonna be a bloodbath
of bodies dropping at KJ
yo, Stingray's got something to say!!

Your a funny one. BJ likes.

Prepared to be utterly destroyed by the greatness that will be TDKRs BO run.

My conservative prediction

32m midnights + 56m day = 88m Friday
54m Saturday
46m Sunday
188m weekend
550m total

My heart and soul prediction

60m midnights + 80m day = 140m OD
78m Saturday
75m Sunday
293m weekend
809m total