TDKR is either going to equal that level, or at the very least, come within 10% of it. People were complaining/spoofing Ledger's Joker when it was revealed over a year before TDK's release, and many were skeptical as to whether or not he'd live up to the name. Even after the film released and Bale's voice was mocked, it still didn't stop TDK from being a gigantic hit. Combined with Nolan being the most marketable director next to Cameron, TDK has the best chance of being the top film of the year with ONLY the Hobbit rivaling it.

The Avengers is just not a big name property with the people at large, and Whedon is far from being the most well known director in Hollywood. Hell, Guy Ritchie has more pull. The ceiling you gave to TDKR, in reality, is the ceiling for the Avengers.

How exactly is Prometheus going to gross more than twice as much as any other Ridley Scott film in history? Considering how his last two films did both critically and financially, he doesn't exactly have drawing power he once had in the industry. Plus, it's only loosely based on the alien franchise. Predators didn't perform anywhere close to box office record numbers on any level (to say the least), so a loosely based story on another extraterrestrial species, most likely, won't grab massive attention. Don't get me wrong, I'll be checking it out myself as I'm a big fan of his work in general; I just don't see it making blockbuster level numbers.

TASM: That one is a bit of a gamble. It has Gwen Stacy (Or, as referenced by general audiences, "Not-Mary Jane") and the lizard as a villain. I'd say it'll do better than SP3.

So, in general:

The Dark Knight Rises
Avengers
TASM
Prometheus

Yes $175m might not be higher than TDK adjusted but then you have to consider Heath Ledger's death playing a bit of a role in that $158m opening. I think $175m is a good number for it, although I think it will be close to $185m which would be almost equal to TDK adjusted (marketing it as the end of trilogy will help in OW this time).

I certainly wouldn't.

The world will have to end six months early for TDKR to open to 17m.

you mean that Prometheus is gonna be bigger than the Dark Knight Rises???, such a terrible prediction, one of the worst I've read, even films like Dark Shadows, MIB 3, and Brave sound more likely to outgross it

Nothing about Prometheus' premise says it's going to be a blockbuster film. Even the first Alien movie over 30 years ago would translate into around 272 mill by todays ticket sales, and there's no way that film is going to reach that, and TDKR is certainly not going to drop that far, if it even drops at all.

Nothing about the Avengers shows anything revolutionary. Same generic explosions, same level of CGI as previous Marvel films, and the blending of live action franchises has been done before by Freddy, Jason, Alien and Predator.

The only, I repeat, ONLY film next year that has a chance of beating TDKR is the Hobbit.

Jesus, I wish I could flash forward to next summer when I end up being the only one right about TDKR getting trounced by another superhero franchise in the form of the AVENGERS and you all looking like jackasses for completely missing the boat on this..

And the blending of live action being done before by Freddy vs Jason??? Your comparing Freddy vs Jason to MARVEL'S Top tier level of superheros on 1 screen that's never been done before(and spare me the X-MEN bullshit to folks cause compared to the ensemble of the superheros in the AVENGERS, the X-MEN pale in comparison..

for anyone near/in NYC interested in going to the lincoln square IMAX midnight showing, tickets are already on sale

http://www.fandango.com/amcloewslincoln ... =7/19/2012

Seriously, this movie is setting itself up for quite the fall going on sale this early and coming off a trailer that didn't exactly light the world on fire either..

^You just reminded me of Koorgan

Selling tickets 7 months early is a method used by many blockbuster movie events.

Don't try to accuse WB of being nervous just because there's a higher demand for The Dark Knight Rises tickets than for that glorified Marvel circle jerk this year .

It's sold out. Seven months in advance and it's already sold out.

Yeah it actually is lol!

200m+ fo sho

I'll flip the fuck out if this can do $40 million from midnights.

What will he do when it tops 50m in midnight gross

I think it needs around a 85 million day to stay at 50 million Saturday.

I really would like to see Spiderman 3 Saturday Record fall.

Its an underrated record, 59.5 million dollars adjusted today and with only business from the day (no midnights or anything)

get your bat costume now

Yeah TDK opens to 85 million on Friday, it should break the record.


I see

85 million
52 million -39%
44 million -12%


181 million

I think opening Day record will be difficult, but opening weekend record will be destroyed easily.

Even with 80 million, TDKR should beat DH2, 169 million.

And with that new defense bill Obama signed, that would be the last we'd ever hear of Magnus.

WOAHOO TOPICAL

No ? TDKR will beat DH2's OW record. The real ? is by how much.

Anyone here (beside BKB) doubt that

I think there is a good chance for $52m (or $51.4m to be exact) Saturday but it is far from guaranteed.