Desperate for whom?

Only the Republicans, I assume. Unless Obama start killing kittens/puppies, the Reps have no shot at winning.

Do not assume all those one time democrat are going to come back.


If Obama loses like a couple a million votes and GOP picks up a few its a close election by default.

I am not assuming anything.

Where are those millions of GOP votes coming from? If anything, a lot of GOP voters will stay home due to idiocy of their candidates.

Well two things, GOP supporters do not like Obama and they may not like Romney but they are far more motivated then compared to 2008.

Obama got close to 70 million votes in 2008 and many were one time voters, I think the next election will not have a big turnout as many Americans are just fed up and demotivated.
Bush won around 62 million votes back in 2004 and McCain got around 60 million.


My whole point is by just looking at the numbers, the winner will be by a few million votes at the most. Even so, votes mean nothing as we learned in 2000, electoral college matters.



So I think the next election will be close, but I agree no Candidate is great and only Romney has a chance. I give Obama odds of 55-45 of winning.

Luckily Obama is not as unfortunate as Carter who had to face Ronald Regan.
I would also remind you in that election, Carter was slightly ahead until the debates took place.

It's also important to remember that the President is chosen by the electoral college. Obama doesn't have to win the majority of votes, after all. He just needs to keep most of the states he won the first time, and he can afford to lose some of them.

Romney will be the only Rep that would have a CHANCE in the debates against Obama. The rest are TERRIBLE in debates. Although, Romney comes off as a dick a lot of the times.

I said that votes do not matter, electoral college does but I was saying the election will be done to a few million votes and that imo will make it a close election by default.

Obama has the advantage as he won a lot of States in 2008 then Kerry did, however Romney according to polls is competitive in all of them unlike the others. Plus he according to the polls he puts Pennsylvania in play (he is just behind and tied with Obama in polls). However Obama still is popular in the West, compared to the East. Obama needs to campaign hard..


My perdiction is http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_p ... ?mapid=cXQ

Obama keeps New Mexico and Colorado, Iowa.

Loses Nevada, Virgina, NC Indiana.

Florida and Ohio are just unknown.

However Obama can just build a firewall around Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvanian and he will okay and not lose more then one State in the West. If he loses Ohio and Florida, he loses (did the math lol) and according to polls they are going to be a tough fight.

Obama I think has a better shot at Nevada than Ohio or Florida. Even with Romney.

Neveda has the latino vote but Obama is not popular in that state at all.

He's popular in Ohio and Florida? The best he can hope for is anti-Kasich and anti-Scott votes.

Yeah Obama should be careful, Pennsylvanian could come into play.

2010 was not pretty in that state.

As a Pennsylvanian, I am reminded often of the old saying "Pennsylvania is Philadelphia in the east, Pittsburgh in the west, and Alabama inbetween."

As long as the cities come out, they always beat the rural redneck vote ... and in my area (the Poconos) we've had so many ex New Yorkers and New Jersians move in that in the 14 years I've lived here I've watched it go from a 99% white Republican area to a 30% minority Democratic area.

It all depends on turnout.

Lol Driving through Pennsylvania is always interesting.


Turnout will be a factor in many States however Obama will have to play defense on that State.

I do not think Obama will be able to turn a State towards him.

I would argue he won some states just because of one time voters like in Indiana and South Carolina.

Then you add in the states where Republicans are popular again like in Ohio, Nevada, Florida, Virgina and then factor in the lower turnout in 2012, and we have ourselves a close race.

Looking at 2008, Obama won Florida by less than 3 %, I think Republicans can get that more easily then Neveda or Ohio.

You can argue those things. But you would lose those arguments.

It all depends, a man like Perry or Cain would imo actually drive up turnout for the democrats.



I forgot all about New Hampshire, Romney is polling very strongly in that State. I think we should put that in a toss up.


Romney imo is the only one that would put up a challenge as he is a more moderate figure making him more popular in the East Coast compared to Perry or Cain.

That's always been a fact. Romney has always been the biggest challenge to Obama.

I expect voter turnout to be low, unless the campaign is about issues.

There is a backlash against the GOP big-time in Florida. Scott has a 30%-ish approval rating. Kasich is getting a lot of crap too.

He could win Arizona because of the Latino vote. McCain only won it last time because it was his home state.

The smoking bit. A real dog whistle for angry white men, even if it plays like a Tim & Eric commercial.

The commercial is terrible, especially with the bad cheesy music.

Yeah, but read the right wing reactions to it. It's interesting.

Cain accused of sexual assault

Mitt Romney:

Romney's gonna have a cakewalk to the nomination.