Variety Newsletter:

Disney's retrofitted 3D "The Lion King" came out of the gate strong to gross about $1.7 million thus far today.

B.O. observers predict the toon, originally released in 1994, will take in around $16 million-$18 million for the weekend.

While the pic came out strong out of the gate this morning, the numbers have simmered a bit, leading to some variation among B.O. observers in the three-day estimates for the pic. Nighttime shows will also not be as robust for the family pic, though it undoubtedly is benefitting from its nostalgic appeal to twentysomething auds.

FilmDistrict's "Drive" is looking to follow "King," having pulled in $550,000 as of this afternoon, Pic, with estimates hovering between $10 million and $12 million for its opening frame gross, will probably see a pop with nighttime auds.

The same can be said for Sony's R-rated "Straw Dogs," which has tallied some $200,000 thus far. Pic seems to be headed towards a $7 million first-frame gross.

The Weinstein Co.'s Sarah Jessica Parker comedy "I Don't Know How She Does It" will probably perform a little more modestly than previous estimates, with observers putting the pic's take at a little under $7 million. Pic has grossed about $300,000 as of this afternoon.

Warner Bros.' "Contagion," meanwhile, may see a 40%-45% drop in its second-frame holdover as it appears likely the film will earn about $11.5 million to $12.5 million this weekend.

Darling Nikki:

FRIDAY 3PM: Very early numbers show Lion King 3D roaring back to #1 with $15M weekend; Contagion #2 with $12M, Drive #3 with $11M, Straw Dogs #4 with $8M, I Don’t Know How She Does It with $7.5M.

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/

Wonder if they're lowballing its IM. TS re-release got 3.84 IM.

THR:

Disney's re-release of the 1994 classic is on course to win the domestic box office race with $15 mil or better for the weekend and Ryan Gosling "Drive" is faring the best among three new films.

Disney’s re-release of The Lion King is mining gold at the domestic box office, where it’s on course to gross $15 million or better for the weekend and win the No. 1 spot away from three new films.

Families are turning out in force to see the 3D conversion of the 1994 animated classic (theaters also are playing the toon on some 2D screens), which is tied to the Oct. 4 release of the Diamond Blu-Ray edition of the film.

Heading into the weekend, tracking suggested Lion King would gross $12 million to $13 million, but box office observers upped their estimates because of such strong sales on Friday (some believe the pic could even come in as high as $18 million, but others aren't as bullish).

Elsewhere at the box office, Friday night business will determine the fate of the weekend’s three new releases, but early returns suggest Ryan Gosling action-thriller Drive is in a close race with Warner Bros. holdover Contagion for the No. 2 spot at $12 to $13 million each for the weekend.

FilmDistrict is distributing Drive in the U.S.; the critically acclaimed film and Toronto Film Festival favorite was directed byNicholas Winding Refn and also stars Carey Mulligan andBryan Cranston.

Heading into the weekend, tracking pegged Drive’s opening weekend gross at around $10 million.

Sarah Jessica Parker comedy I Don’t Know How She Does It and Rod Lurie’s remake Straw Dogs — the other two new films — are off to a softer start.

Early projections have I Don’t Know How She Does It, from the Weinstein Co., grossing around $7 million, although the number could be higher if word-of-mouth is strong among women, the film’s target demo.

Screen Gems’ Straw Dogs also is expected to gross around $7 million for the weekend, give or take. Box office observers cautioned that a more accurate read won’t come until Friday night since Straw Dogs — like Drive — is rated R, meaning it isn’t doing big matinee business.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/b ... 91611%20(1)&utm_content=

I know it sounds redundant, but I really find it absolutely ridiculous to have "Early Friday Numbers" at 5 pm EST on Friday...

I agree, all Nikki and the trades do is just confuse people.

I personally think 'early Friday numbers' belong in the Screen Counts and Crowd Reports thread.

Frankly I think theater counts belong there too. It seems good to consolidate thread topics when it makes sense to.

I mean, those two topics (screen counts and crowd reports) are themselves fairly distinct to have in one thread....

Even if Drive came in below what is predicted it is on track to do solid numbers. Not a flop like it could have been.

While much better overall, the weekend is turning out to be an expected affair with no real surprises. I am fine with having a separate thread for FRIDAY NUMBERS. What I don't agree is having a thread for Early Friday Numbers and then having one for Friday numbers, one of the threads suffer cause of that.

But yeah at this time these are more predictions than numbers close to actuals or projections for that matter.

Lion King looks like it may be able to do $370m+ with this Re-Release.

I don't think it will manage $50m. These movies are like a one time affair as Ryu explained in some other thread, they behave more like Concert movies where the people who have decided to see it will go and see it first weekend after that maybe some of the doubters will go. For $50m on a $18m opening it needs a multiplier of 2.8, I don't think it will make that much. I think in this case the higher they open the faster they fall.

What was the multiplier for that Toy Story 3D double feature?

From BOG Twitter:

Sources telling me FRI heading to: #LionKing $6M/$20M+ wknd, Contagion 4.5/14, #Drive 4/11, DontKnow 2/6, StrawDogs 2/5

Whoa Lion King. Yikes for Straw Dogs.

2.46.

I think The Lion King could challenge $380m. The race could be on between it and HP7.2 to see who could pass ROTS to the No. 12 position on the domestic chart.

With this opening Lion King is not leaving theaters in 2 weeks. It will at least be in theaters until the Blu-ray release October 4th.

Nobody believed the "two weeks only run" in the first place... BTW: In Mexico TLK is now in its 6th week...

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/b ... ing-236663

The Hollywood Reporter is now reporting a 22-24 Million opening for The Lion King. HOLY SHIT!

BTW: TLK surpassed FORREST GUMP today and is now "officially" the biggest movie of 1994...

Really did not see that coming, but kind of enjoy that it did happen. TLK is a classic, deserves the extra success. I just wonder what all the #1 publicity this week will mean for it's second weekend... should be interesting!

What does the TLK opening mean for TITANIC's re-release next year?

TS/TS2 re-release held quite well on its second weekend. The Lion King could win again next weekend.

I would imagine more Disney classics will see re-releases now. Beauty & The Beast would probably be next. I personally want to see them re-release more classic horror films during the fall season.

THR has CinemaScores:

C- DRIVE
B I DON'T KNOW...
C STRAW DOGS

Bit surprised by the low CinemaScore for Straw Dogs. My crowd seemed into it. It's such a charged, mounting-dread, bang-bang-bang movie, and there was gasping and applause during the final showdown, though the downbeat, what-now? ending is obviously designed to deflate and unsettle.

With Drive also getting a relatively crap CinemaScore, I must say: I've no clue what audiences want from their "genre" entertainment. I feel both Nicolas Winding Refn and Rod Lurie turned out quality, intelligent, compelling thrillers this weekend.

So the updated numbers show the crappiness of early numbers...

8.825 Lion King 30m+ weekend
4.024 Drive
1.558 Know How She Does