How low do you think it will go? If you want you can distinguish between closing low and intra-day low. If you just give one number we'll assume closing low.

I really have no idea personally which is why I made this thread, to see what you all think.

5720


though anything can happen.

6500

5,900

42.

6700-6800. I think the economy starts recovering sooner than expected, and by year end we'll see Dow around 8500.

6774 low
9011 by year end

what's your evidence for this?

Anecdotal. A lot more quality jobs posted in my industry on craigslist today than a month ago. Credit markets are opening up. The company I work for is seeing more deals worked on than we expected just a few months ago.

It's all very fragile, but it's promising.

I think we will begin to see positive economic growth by mid year. That alone will create a bottom and stabilize the market, giving us the second half of the year to head back up. However, I'm not so sure I'm as optimistic as Dima, we have a lot more job losses to swallow before we can accurately predict any kind of bottom. Right now there is just too much instability and too many questions with no answers to accurately predict anything.

For those interested in this, we should know more once we hear the results of the banking stress tests the government is performing, as that will provide us with a much crisper look at the true state of the financial industry.

My dad works in lighting and says that people are chomping at the bit to start building in March. Also my brother in law works for the railroad and they added some more jobs (this is tied to manufacturing).

I personally think the "purging" is close to being over as far as job losses go. Some will still happen and unemployment will continue to climb, but I think January was a bit overdone.

Well ... yes and no.

January found us with many major companies forced to cut cost for the new year due to lagging revenue and increased expenses. Many companies decided one of the ways to do that was by cutting fat from the payroll, and we suffered very heavy job losses as a result, others decided to institue a hiring freeze. These type of cuts tend to come in bunches, generally at the turn of fiscal years, and as such, should slow to a trickle.

Unfortunatly, small businesses have an enormous impact on the unemployment rate and at the moment they are completly unstable, shedding jobs, and not hiring. Add that to existing hiring freezes, and the fact that job losses ALWAYS lag the economic climate and you're sure to see significant job loss numbers for many months to come.

Obama has never hidden the fact that even though he hopes to create over 2 million jobs with the stimulus bill, those new jobs will at best offset other job losses. Don't get too excited just because a company here or there is doing OK, the economy as a whole is still stagnant, manufacturing is in decline, there is no demand for new house manufacturing and the vast majority of companies are tightening their belts or cutting budgets.

When we find a bottom to this downturn we can finally start to anticipate job losses slowing, but until then, we have to continue to expect huge unemployment numbers. Some have argued that the market is actualy at it's bottom, and will now fluxuate up and down, continuing to hit it's bottom over and over for the next few months, before starting to once again see continued and progressive positive growth. This is a position I tend to support, as I think the market's bottom is essentially 7000, and it will hover within the hundreds of that for the coming months.

That said, we won't know where the bottom is until we see that progressive positive growth and can then look back and find it, so again, all simply speculation at this point except for one thing: We will continue to shed jobs by the hundreds of thousands for the coming months.

The Jobless number for Feb came in even higher than I expected:

AIG needs another bailout. That certainly won't help the markets, as its going to post a $60 billion quarterly loss.

I don't know the effect it'll have on the picture, but it should be noted the recession hasn't hit sports yet. The NHL and NBA started in the fall but their season tickets were already sold and non-refundable months beforehand, though even with that it's been chippy. The upcoming baseball season should be the first that really gets hit hard though. Unlike with movies and music where people can still afford easing out on this stuff, paying tickets and especially club seats and luxury boxes will be a lot less attractable, especially in baseball where 80% of the league has no chance in terms of actually competiting in the standings.

Again I'm not sure if it'll have a big effect overall, but between the advertising, merchandising, not to mention all the people working in and around the arenas for the team or concessions and so forth, there's a lot of jobs tied up to these teams that'll get hurt by a ripple effect when the shit hits the fan. Plus if people see teams getting destroyed it could lend to the panik effect.

After reporting a 70% drop in profit for 2008, HSBC is shuttering its consumer loan business in the US.

The banks are starting to feel the effect of toxic mortgages and defaulted debts. I think the change in the financial sector is going to be structural and will take a couple years to start anew.

I hope the Dow will see some strong support at 5,500.

This is not really a standard loss, which is important to keep in mind. It's a one time write down of assets, basically meaning they lost about $60 Billion in equity, not cash.

below 7000. I could see it getting worse too.

Yeah, this means the previous assumed bottom wasn't the bottom, which in turn means this elevator is on it's way down.

anyone who thought 7k was the bottom when we fell below 8k wasn't paying attention.

3,000.

Comet down the Mariana Trench!

During the great Depression it was 90 percent.......uh....so 1500?


I go now for 5720.

I don't know if I buy that. Over the past month we saw a classic double bottom at about 7000, which tends to be a good indicator that a bottom is happening. Only today did the market break that bottom and begin toward a new one, whatever that may be.

Really? Lower mine to 2,000. I don't think it'll make the Great Depression look like leftovers night at the Hearst mansion, but it will suck.