New England 14-2 vs Philadelphia 13-3

OVERVIEW

You have the two best teams in the league meeting in the title game. This is the way it should be. The Patriots and Eagles each won both of their playoff games by double digits. Neither team needed a questionable call or lucky bounce to win.

There are no obvious weaknesses on either team. Both have offensive balance and very good defenses. Both teams field good STs units. We have two of the game's best QBs, as well as two of the league's best Head Coaches.



PATRIOTS OFFENSE

Breakthrough year. They put up 437 points. Previous high was 381 (with Brady at QB). One of the keys was that they finally got a running game and had balance. That made the play-action pass much more effective and forced defenses to honor the run and the pass.

Tom Brady had another sensational year. He had a QB rating of almost 93 and threw 28 TDs. There is a big misconception that he is a dink and dunk passer. Not true. He averaged 7.79 yards per passing attempt. A true short passer would be around 7 or lower. Tom throws a very good deep ball. He almost always puts a pass in a place where the receiver has a chance to make a play on the ball. Very accurate. Great instincts. He doesn't have a great arm, but has plenty of zip on his passes. More importantly, he throws a very catchable ball.

While not the most mobile QB, Brady does move well in the pocket. He has a great feel for pressure and can step up or slide away from it. He doesn't need to watch the rush. He feels it. Funny stat...Brady had 43 carries this year for 28 yds. Donovan had 41 carries. His longest run was 28 yds and he totalled 220. Tom is just as likely to take off from the pocket as McNabb.

There are two key RBs for the Patriots. Corey Dillon is the big man. He had a huge year. Ran for 1635 yds in 15 games. Corey is a downhill runner. He gets the ball deep and builds up a head of steam. He's not a great cutback runner, but can break one off to the backside. Corey is an OK rcvr. He'll catch the occasional screen pass. Is a good check down target for Brady. I never realized how fast he was until I saw Dillon on a regular basis this year. Excellent combination of size and speed. Very good stiff arm. I did notice that he seems to be more effective running to the right side. Had some success to the left, but not as much. His biggest weakness may be fumbling. Lost 3 fumbles on runs and lost one on a pass play.

The other main RB is Kevin Faulk. He's a bit like Westbrook, although not as explosive. Very versatile. Averaged 6.3 yards per touch. Excellent receiver. If Corey breaks a long run (15+), the Pats will normally put Faulk in on the next play. And he gets the ball on that play a lot and usually does something pretty good with it.

TEs are a big part of the Patriot offense. Daniel Graham is the main man. He was fourth on the team in catches, but tied for the lead in TDs with 7. Graham is an outstanding blocker. He is strong enough to handle DL and can get out and flatten LBs or DBs. Not only can he block, but he likes to do it. Great effort. A lot of Dillon's long runs come to the area where Graham has just cleared or sealed a defender. The backup TE is Christian Fauria. He's a solid #2. Had a couple of TD catches. One of the reasons I mentioned that TEs were key to the offense is how they are used in the Red Zone. The Pats do a lot of play-action passing. TEs caught 11 TDs this year, including 2 from LB/TE Mike Vrabel.

The WRs are an odd lot. There is no clear cut #1. The Patriots line guys up all over the place and have them all run all sorts of routes.

David Givens: He's the biggest at 6'0, 215. Led the team in catches. Avgd 15.6 ypc.
David Patten: Old man. 8 year vet. 2nd in catches. Led team with 18 ypc. Fast.
Deion Branch: The most talent. Had 35 catches and 4 TDs in only 9 games.
Bethel Johnson: 2nd year guy. Raw. Very fast.
Troy Brown: Mr. Versatile. O, D, STs. Can still make key plays when needed.

Branch is now healthy and is avging 26 yds a reception in the playoffs. He's the main guy. This group does not have any great players or stars, but they make big play after big play.

The OL is another group of overachievers. They created holes for Dillon and only allowed Brady to be sacked 26 times. Matt Light is the LT and has the key job. He does a good job of keeping Brady's backside clean. Matt struggled against Dwight Freeney in the Divisional Playoff round. He's not the quickest or most athletic guy, but has excellent anticipation and plays hard. LG Joe Andruzzi and C Dan Koppen are solid players. The player on the rise is RG Stephen Neal. He's a former wrestler. Moves well and is very good in space. Spent part of one year on the Philly Practice Squad. The RT is Brandon Gorin. He's started 10 games this year and gotten the job done.

The Patriots are creative in their blocking schemes. They will keep in a TE or RB. They will have an OT down block and have the OG drop back and widen out to pick up the DE. Charlie Weiss won't give the defense an easy time of getting to Tom Brady.

Strategically, the Pats are tough to figure out. They have the most versatile offense in the league. They can play power football and pound you with Corey Dillon. They can line up in the I-formation and show you a standard attack. Or they spread you out with 3 and 4 wideouts and get pass happy.

Granted, several teams can mix up their attack. What separates the Patriots is that Brady doesn't have a main weapon for the defense to focus on. Take away Deion Branch. Fine. They'll go to David Givens. Take away the deep ball. Fine. They'll dink and dunk. Focus on the pass and they'll run on you all day long.


PATRIOT DEFENSE

New England is one of the few teams in the league that runs a 3-4 defense. Unlike the other units, the Pats don't have explosive OLBs. They don't focus on speed, but rather size and strength.

The best defensive lineman is DE Richard Seymour. He hurt his knee late in the regular season and hasn't played since. Richard has been doing some practicing and expects to play. He only had 5 sacks, but he is a difference maker. Seymour is very tough for one man to block. He's strong enough to overpower an OL, but also quick enough to get by blockers.

Jarvis Green has been the replacement for Seymour. He's an excellent backup and solid starter.

The NT position is handled by two guys. Veteran Keith Traylor is the starter. He struggled at the beginning of the year, but has really improved. He was really tough vs PIT in the Championship Game. And that was going up against Jeff Hartings, the best Center I've seen all year. The backup is rookie Vince Wilfork. He's the quicker of the two. Both are big guys and can wear down, but by rotating, they stay fresh and effective.

The LDE is manned by Ty Warren. He's only in his 2nd year, but is another player on the rise. Ty led the Pats with 5.5 TFL's. He made a very impressive play vs PIT when he ran Duce Staley down on a running play that went away from him. Good hustle and effort and pretty good speed.

The OLBs are Willie McGinest (SAM) and Mike Vrabel (WIL). Willie lists at 270 and Mike at 260. That is one big set of bookends. Both are very physical players. Don't let their size fool you. These guys can get to the QB (15 sacks combined) and make plays.

The ILBs are Teddy Bruschi and Ted Johnson. They finished 2nd and 3rd in tackles. Johnson is a pure run stuffer. There is no simple way to explain Bruschi. He does it all...plays the run, covers, fumbles, INTs, sacks, key plays...he does it all. Teddy has phenomenal instincts. He anticipates plays before they happen. Roman Phifer comes in on some passing downs.

The Safeties are Rodney Harrison and Eugene Wilson. Rodney is the hammer. He owns the middle. Andre Waters and Wes Hopkins must love to watch this guy play. He can come up into the box and stuff the run or he can blitz. Rodney can be over-aggressive in coverage and get burned. He's not the quickest or fastest guy in the world, but there is a difference between him and guys like Mike Lewis or Roy Williams. Harrison is experienced enough that he has a good feel for what the QB is going to do. He baited Rothelisberger into throwing the INT at the end of the 1st half last week. Eugene Wilson is the cover guy. He led the Pats with 4 INTs. Very good hitter and tackler.

The CBs are Randall Gay and Assante Samuel. WR Troy Brown and recently signed Hank Poteat are the backups. Not a very initmidating group, but they get the job done. Gay was a backup at LSU last year and went undrafted. But this kid can play. Samuel is the better of the two. He mirrors WRs well and plays the ball very well. Believe it or not, Troy Brown played well enough in the slot to finish second on the team with 3 INTs. Individually, these guys aren't that great. They play a lot of zone and work well together. And all of them can tackle.


SPECIAL TEAMS

PK Adam Vinatieri is the best in the AFC, if not the entire NFL. He has strong leg and doesn't miss clutch kicks.

P Josh Miller is good. I did notice while watching games that he looked a little slow in getting his kicks off.

Bethel Johnson is the main KO returner. He has blazing speed. Very dangerous guy. Averaged almost 25 yds a return. Troy Brown and Kevin Faulk both return punts. Brown used to be a real threat, but only averaged 7 yds a return this year.

The coverage teams were not so good. New England has some excellent STers in Larry Izzo, Rabih Abdullah, and Jerod Cherry, but they gave up over 23 yds a KO return and almost 12 yds a punt return. SS Rodney Harrison plays on the KO cover units along with some other starters.


RECENT GAME NOTES

* The Pats opened the PIT game with an End Around. They also ran one in the win over IND. Not a big deal really, but they only ran 3 all year long. Anything to put pressure on the opposing defense.

* They helped the RT on passing downs a lot in the last two games.

* Brady loves to throw quick passes in the Red Zone. Vs. PIT, he took the snap and fired a pass to David Givens. The CB fell and Givens walked in for the TD. I've seen Brady do this in other games. CBs cannot play off the WRs in the Red Zone.

* Brandon Stokely had success vs Troy Brown in the win over Indy.

* The Colts also threw a lot to RB Edgerrin James (7 Rec).


STRATEGY

The Patriots are smart, talented, and well coached. They make big plays and limit opponents from making big plays. They are beatable, though.

New England led 6-3 over IND at the half. They led PIT 24-3. Part of their M.O. is to get a lead and stay out in front. That combined 1st half score is 30-6. In the 2nd half, it was only 31-24.

Our offense has been very efficient in the opening half of the last two games (and basically all year).

First 5 drives vs MIN:

3/Out
7/53 yds...TD
7/92 yds...TD
2/46 yds...TD
13/92 yds...Half (time ran out after Donovan's pass to Levens)

First 3 drives vs ATL:

6/32 yds...Fake FG
6/70 yds...TD
9/72 yds...TD

Andy has done a tremendous job of gameplanning and Donovan has executed the scheme very well.

We opened the MIN game by feeding the ball to Westbrook. We then opened the ATL game by spreading the ball around and saved Westbrook until the 2nd half. Who knows what Andy will have in store for this game...

The key to all of this is that someone needs to score on NE and put the pressure on them. The Patriots do a lot of planning and scheming, but as noted philosopher Mike Tyson once said, "Everyone has a plan until they get hit in the mouth."

New England likes to keep their safeties back and play zone. The best way to attack them is to stretch the defense vertically and hit crossing routes or underneath rcvrs. I watched PIT, IND, and SEA all have success with this. And it is something we've done all year. We send Pinkston deep a lot. Because of his speed, defenses have to be careful and will have safeties stay deep. That leaves open space for TO, Freddie, LJ, and Westy.

We also have an advantage with Westbrook vs. the Patriot LBs. None of them is quick or fast enough to keep up with him. They'll try to jam him and be physical with him every chance they get. Andy knows this going in and will plan accordingly.

We need to attack NE's defense. Teams tend to be too passive. CIN lost, but scored 28. They were aggressive. MIA scored 29 and won. They came out with multiple rcvrs and attacked downfield.

One of the ways to get the ball downfield is to use play-action passes. And of course, you have to mix in some runs to make those passes more effective.

The Patriots finished with 45 sacks. They do a good job of getting after the QB. Our OL will have to play well once again. They have been outstanding in the first two games. This is a different test, though. ATL had quick DL. NE has bigger guys. And seeing the 3-4 can cause some problems. Belichick will rush 3 or 4 guys most of the time, but will only use 2 guys on some plays. He'll also blitz and send 5 or 6 guys at times. The X-factor in this regard is Donovan's mobility. The Pats haven't faced anyone like McNabb this year. The most mobile QBs they've seen this year are Matt Hasselbeck and Ben Rothelisberger. If NE tries to just rush 3, McNabb may have some good chances to run. He won't have huge areas to run through, but may end the game with 8-10 carries.

I did notice that both Matt and Big Ben were able to create big plays by scrambling away from pressure and then throwing. Donovan is very good at this and will have a chance for a big play or two. He has to connect.

Our defense also has a major task ahead of them. The goal will be to stop the run first and make them a passing team. Easier said than done.

We can't afford to bring a safety down in the box like we did against ATL. Our front seven has to stop the run by themselves. Jeremiah Trotter has to have a big day. Our DTs need to come up big also. The best way to stop Corey Dillon is with penetration. He is best when running north-south and at full speed. He struggles when he has to dodge defenders and start and stop. Thankfully, we have a defense that is good at penetrating. Corey is very strong and can't be tackled from the side when he gets going. Guys have to take him head on.

I think we should keep Jevon Kearse at RDE and Derrick Burgess at LDE. LT Matt Light is a good blocker, but will need help with Kearse. The Pats don't seem to trust RT Brandon Gorin on most passing plays. They would probably still help him with Burgess. That takes away potential targets.

Brady is a great QB, but he is human. He threw 14 INTs this year. Pressure can get to him. The Dolphins only sacked him twice, but picked him off 4 times when they beat NE. MIA plays a lot of press coverage, which we haven't done a lot of this year. Should be interesting to see how Jim Johnson attacks them.

We have to mix in some blitzes. The CB blitz looked effective in a couple of games.

The biggest key to beating the Patriots is turnovers. Just think about the PIT game. They turned an early INT into a FG. The next play after a Bettis fumble was a TD pass. And Harrison had the late INT that he returned for a TD. 17 of 24 1st half points came as a result of or just after turnovers. Donovan only threw 8 INTs this year and hasn't been picked off in the playoffs. Let's hope that trend continues.


PREDICTION

I didn't mention TO very much. I don't think he's that critical of a factor. Going up against Ty Law and Tyrone Poole? Yes. I think our other WRs are good enough to handle Randall Gay and Assante Samuel. Having TO can only make us that much better.

The key to me is the line of scrimmage. Our OL has to give Donovan time to throw and Westbrook holes to run through. This is the best Eagles OL I've seen. And on defense, our DL has to control the Pats OL. We have to get penetration to disrupt Corey Dillon. We also have to get pressure on Tom Brady. He will take chances at times and our DL has to rush him and hit him. Sacks would be nice, but I'll settle for him making a couple of bad throws. Tom wasn't sacked all of last postseason, but has gone down 5 times in the last two games.

I think we'll win the battle up front. I think Donovan and Westbrook will make some plays. I think people will finally have to step up and say "Damn. That Eagles defense is good." TO was the acquisition that is most talked about, but Kearse is the big man in the big game.



PHI 27, NE 16