It would be nice if Batman reclaims the opening weekend record that it last did 13 years ago

I may be forced to miss TDK until next week...



It's just not in my budget at the moment...

Lol... It's a two person event.

The thing is... I HAVE the money... but I'm trying to save it for something else. Something... more important...

Semi-Final Predictions:

Friday: $57.5 Million ($14 Million from Midnights)
Saturday: $43 Million -25.22%
Sunday: $35.7 Million -16.98%
Opening Weekend: $136.2 Million ($30,955 Average in 4,400 Theaters)
Second Weekend: $63 Million -53.75%
Domestic Total: $408.6 Million (3.0 Multiplier)
International Total: $320 Million
Worldwide Total: $728.6 Million

I know the sunday drop seems very small, but consider this: Spider-Man 3 was able to get a 22% drop in the beginning of May. I definetely think this can get a sub-20% drop in the middle of July.

POTC2 didn't manage a sub-20% drop, why would this?

You’re probably really going to love The Dark Knight, but what Hollywood will be pondering in the next few days running up to the movie’s release is just exactly how many of your friends they've convinced to see it. Right now, hype for this thing is quite obviously, completely out of control. Yesterday morning at the press screening I attended for the film, people denied entry were on the verge of violence, and only the threat of police interference got the irate trouble makers off the premises before they could do serious property damage. Outside the theater teenagers lurked, and plotted to find a way to sneak in past Warner Brothers’ numerous security guards. Inside, those who were on the carefully monitored press list looked around nervously, ready to bitchslap anyone who got between them and their theater seat. People aren’t just eager to see this thing, they’re desperate to see it, and even the mere suggestion that they might not see it when they want to how they want to sends some into half-crazed contortions.

Warner Brothers is, perhaps rather wisely, trying to keep their expectations reasonable. Right now various sources say they’re only expecting to make $100 million in the movie’s first three days. That’s a huge number, but it may also be incredibly pessimistic. Most other box office bigwigs though, are predicting something in the $130 - $135 million range for Dark Knight’s opening weekend. Just to put that in perspective, if TDK makes $135 million then that would tie it with Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest for the second biggest opening weekend of all time, behind only Spider-Man 3.

Personally, I still think that’s low. I know the hype over Pirates and Spidey was pretty serious, but I’ve never, not in the 5 years I’ve been doing this job somewhat seriously, seen excitement over any movie even approaching what’s going on out there with The Dark Knight. Spider-Man 3? Please. Why not $160 million for The Dark Knight? They’re showing the movie nonstop. For it’s first 24 hours out in the ether, theaters will not be closing, using every available second to fit in more and more TDK showings on multiple screens. That’s unprecedented. How many times can theaters actually show this thing? To me, that’s the only real limit on how much money TDK is going to make next weekend. Otherwise, sky is the limit. $200 million? Why not. Bring it on.

Assume each screen has 8 showings a day (which is about the most they could possibly fit in, showing 24 hours a day), and it’s opening in 4300 theaters. That’s 34,400 TDK showings just in the first 24 hours. Figure an average of 200 seats per theater, $10 per ticket, and that’s a possible $68.8 million earned in just the first 24 hours and a possible $204 million in 3 days. Could every single showing in the country sell out? Probably not, but if any movie is ever going to come close to doing it, then this little Batman movie’s got the juice. For moviegoers, nothing else out there matters to anyone until after the world has sat down with a big bucket of popcorn and seen it.

When I submit my guess to the CB forum’s Bowling For Box Office Game this week, I’ll probably got for something around $165 million. What’s your estimate? How big is this thing going to be? How many people are you dragging to see it? Get your tickets now, they may all be gone by morning.

Could The Dark Knight have the first $200 million opening weekend in box office history? I almost don't want to keep talking about it, for fear of jinxing it's opening weekend potential, but as the clock ticks down, it looks like expectations continue to rise. Although I highly doubt this is possible, Josh Tyler of Cinema Blend asks that exact question - could The Dark Knight hit $200 million? First off, discussion surrounding The Dark Knight has gotten a bit out of hand on the site and that's partially my fault. I've posed so many radical questions (surrounding the hype) and even critiqued a negative review (from New York Magazine) that readers are getting frustrated at my own opinion. However, I think it's best to just move on past these and focus on the future and the fact that The Dark Knight finally hits theaters this weekend. So with that, let's continue looking at the latest ticket sales stats.

MovieTickets.com announced just yesterday that advance ticket sales for The Dark Knight have surpassed three of their top-10 performing films of all-time at this point in the sales cycle. This means that they've sold three times as many advance tickets as Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest and twice as many as Spider-Man 3 and Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (at this point in time - four days in advance). Additionally, they report that over 450 showings are already sold out and that 1300 midnight shows are currently listed for sale. These are some incredibly impressive stats and we're not even taking into consideration Fandango.com's numbers. Apparently the only other two movies in history with this much advance momentum were Star Wars: Episode III and Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire.

It's those sort of numbers that have made Josh question whether The Dark Knight has the potential to reach upwards of $160 to $200 million in its opening weekend. It's a fiery debate amongst fans about the actual box office potential of the film, but let's just stick to the facts (for the most part). The only way it could achieve that kind of miraculous success is if every seat at every last showing sold out on opening weekend. Unfortunately I don't think that will be the case (who goes at 10AM?), but Josh makes a great point: "If any movie is ever going to come close to doing it, then this little Batman movie's got the juice." Without getting into arguments over the dark nature of the film or its running time, the excitement for this is so extreme that it is one of the few films in history to have the potential to get to that point.

With only three days remaining, The Dark Knight is still building buzz. Every new positive review that pops up gives the film's momentum an extra boost, pushing it further and further towards the $200 million range. And I'm not the only one who has called it one of the best superhero movies ever made. And as long as people continue to say that, this is destined to become one of the most successful superhero movies ever made. The Dark Knight has been poised to shatter records for weeks already, and news like this today is only making that speculation a reality. The film is definitely on its way to have a phenomenal opening weekend - and I'll be watching closely as the bean counters tally up the earnings. While I still can't make any predictions myself, I will say that this will be one hell of an amazing weekend.

What fight for screens.