What will make up the difference box would have to be a combo of imax and fanboys equaling bigger midnights.



Its a tough call. The problem is screens. It has 2 other wide release opening against it + hellboy holdovers. However...it is somehow being projected to break the theater count record.

You said pirates 2 did 9 million in midnights, soit did 46 million opening day from conventional theaters. I expect TDK to sell out just about every showing on opening day. IF it can do about 42-43 million from regular theaters + 12 million + imax, it has a slim shot at the opening day record.

The fanboys will already be out in full force. We've known this for months.


The extra cash it needs to get past $55m or $60m won't come from the midnights; it will come from the day-night period thereafter.

We have a tendency to subtract the midnights from the day total and say that it's the extra amount, but that's not true. The midnight gross is the initial amount it has made; it includes the hardcore fanboys already. It's the amount the film makes afterwards that's crucial. And the size of that amount will depend on how wide an audience the film is able to reach. Which means that it needs to attract millions of casual filmgoers that would otherwise not check it out on day one. And that in turn means that the film has to perform phenomenally well, which is the obvious point

Let's say the midnight sales are done, and the film's made $12m. Having exhausted the initial hardcore fanbase, will the film have enough of a draw to actually get another $48m, more than BB did in an entire weekend?


I think we've been spoiled a bit by DMC2 and SM3. Those films are titans.

It does not need appeal to everywhere. Women will for the most be checking out mama mia; and i dont think anybody will be seeing space chimps.

Ill break it down by demo-60 million opening day:

-12.5 million at midnights
-10 million in women
-22 million from the male 12-40 age group
-6 million in people over 40 years old
-6 from children under 12

That is only 56.5. The 3.5 will have to be made up of better than expcted turn outs form those demos and imax tickets being more expensive. Here what I wanna know:

for these imax sell outs, can we get how much tickets are at each theater and seating counts? You could tally up exactly how much tdk has already made.

I think the midnights will be bigger than that. $14.5 million sounds about right. $2 million less than Sith thanks mostly due to more screens and the IMAX boost.

Em, that's everyone

Because thats who will be seeing it. The point is pirates 2 broke down something like this probably:

-9 million at midnights
-15 million in females
-13 million from the male 12-40 age group
-5 million in people over 40 years old
-14 from children under 12

TDK can make up for doing les with women and kids with bigger midnights, more appeal to males and older folks, and imax prices.

That's too many kids. Remember that tickets for kids are cheaper. I'd take at least $2m from kids and give them to women. Pirates is huge among women.


I'd say that Batman needs fanboys more than DMC2 and SM3 did. Actually, I'm not sure how big the fanboy effect was during SM3's OW. Spider-Man, at least until after SM3's OW, was the biggest brand name we have had this decade. It's popularity is so ridiculously borad, which I guess is part of why it had such an amazingly small drop on Saturdays and Sundays.

That was a while back, as in before all the rave reviews and actually that was probably before Ledger's death. I've been in the $100 milion club at BOM for quite a while now (a couple of months, possibly more than that). And expectations are getting too high. I figure it will break $100 million, but I won't be surprised if it's much bigger than that.

Mag that extra boost will come from Imax. I just did the math.

The Imax bey me is 755 seats at $15 a piece. Shwotimes are 12 A.M., 3 AM., 6 A.M., 9 A.M., 12 P.M., 3 P.M., 6 PM., 9 P.M. and so on.

If it sells out every showing on friday, thats $90,600 from that theater ALONE.

...Imax is could make up for the extra boost you say it lacks because while tdk lacks those things, they lacked imax.

Ok how many imax theaters are there? Ill go with...I dunno, 100?

Say they each average 500 seats and 6 showings a day.

That would equal 4.5 million right there.

If every one does round the clock showings, that would be potentially 6 million.

Tuesday, April 29th is the day I joined the $100 million club. So right around 2 months ago.

http://boxofficemojo.com/forums/viewtop ... start=2610

My name on there is TTUBatfan.

This is the last time I can post till the 7th; yall keep bumping this with new shit ya hear???

One thing i'm pretty sure of, this won't touch SM3's OW record, don't even go there. DMC's OW is a little too high a goal, too, i think. Big early sellouts come from Batman having more hardcore fans (remember how sellouts skewed our picture of how big Serenity is gonna be?) but i don't think the appeal to the general public is as wide as with the Pirates franchise, especially women and kiddies. Hence i think around $125m is the absolute max it can go for the weekend.

My final prediction:

$110m / $320m

BEST TRAILER EVER!!!

Awesome, that was gut busting.

"Rachael, what the hell?!"
"Wait, not the Sharpie! That's shit's permanent man!"

Why can't spoofs be more like that parody? Some of the dialogue was actually hilarious.

"Rachel's told me everything about you."
"Well if that's the case 'm gonna have to kill you both!"

I laughed. Also:

"You have a nice rack...I like that."
"You have nice lipstick...I like that."
"You have a nice dress...I like that."
"You have a nice tie...I like THAT."

The pocket scene was also quite hilarious. The trailer had more moments in 5 minutes than all the spoofshit movies (Date Movie, Meet the Spartans, etc.) combined in their god knows how long runtime.

OW : $128m-$132m (DMC is in play)
Total : $348m-$359m

Happy to see the buzz growing for this one, just 2 weeks to go......can't wait.

Hoping for at least a $125m opening, which should deliver a gross north of $300m. And judging from the response to the movie so far...wouldn't be surprised if we saw a Spiderman 3 beating final gross.

Anyone has another link for this? Stopped working

We now officially have 4 midnight shows, a 1am, 2am, and 3am show at my theater for Thursday night. No sellouts yet though.

We need to see midnight shows in normal theaters selling out now. If they do, thatd signal prob. what, 3-4 sell outs in adavance of july 18th. When you factor in how many will simpy show up, your talking in excess of 5+ sell outs.